Boeing: the Empire strikes back
Carbon or "black" airplanes - Boeing's secret weapon to overthrow Airbus from its dominant position. And the Europeans didn't see it coming.
Le Point 03/17/05
author: Etienne Gernelle
Le Point - March 17, 2005
Boeing: the Empire strikes back
Carbon or "black" airplanes - Boeing's secret weapon to overthrow Airbus from its dominant position. And the Europeans didn't see it coming.
Etienne Gernelle
It's Boeing secret weapon, set to win the battle of the skies against Airbus - a black airplane. In other words, it is made of carbon, whereas mainstream white airplanes are made of aluminum. This flying threat is called the 787 (formerly the 7E7) which will be rolled out in 2008. "All airplanes will be black in the future," forecasts Mike Bair, head of the 787 program, and he believes that this is one of the "century's three great advances in aviation." Boeing engineers have come up with a slogan: "stop thinking metal." The black airplane will be more resistant, lighter and hence a fuel saver. The aim is to end Airbus' domination. And the European company didn't see this coming.
At Airbus, and its parent company EADS, they admit that the sleeping giant Boeing has awoken. Despite the serial setbacks of CEOs Phil Conduit and Harry Stonecipher, removed after a conflict of interest scandal in the case of the former and an extramarital affair for the latter, the old lady of Seattle is once again showing its claws. Wounded pride oblige. For the last four years, Airbus has led the field in terms of orders and for the last two years in deliveries as well. Meanwhile, two of Boeing's airplanes have stopped production due to lack of customers. And two more are under threat. Luckily the company can count on its military division, which now brings in the majority of its revenues. But it had to react swiftly to save its commercial airplane business. The 787 is a first response, and has already netted 64 firm orders and 129 commitments to buy.
The next problem is getting it built, since a black airplane is a leap into the unknown. It's enough to give the most experienced engineers nightmares. Two years ago, Boeing best brains were locked inside large meeting rooms in Seattle, and told they could only come out when they had reached agreement. Boeing's engineers had realized that it wasn't enough merely to replace aluminum with carbon, since the pylons and joints would require much more work and weight. So the sections had to be built in a single block: No one had ever done this before, except on small aircraft.
The solution they went is to roll a large Scotch tape of carbon around a metal cylinder - a daring but successful move. On January 12 in a hangar in Seattle, Boeing unveiled a cylinder 6.7 meters long and 5.7 meters in diameter made of a single block of carbon. It was in fact the rear section of the future 787. "If we had built it out of aluminum, it would have taken 1,200 sheets and 40,000 rivets," says Mike Bair.
While the technical obstacle has been overcome, it must be admitted that it involved a huge investment of between US$ 7 and 10 billion, according to aviation consultants with the Teal Group. The challenge is to control production costs, since as it is well known, carbon is extremely expensive. "Prices drop as volumes grow larger," replies Mike Bair. "Today, composites are used to make your golf clubs and tennis racquets." At Airbus, they are still somewhat skeptical and note that there are already all-carbon planes such as the B2 bomber but they cost US$ 1 billion a piece, and only carry two people! Airbus has opted for Glare, a lighter aluminum alloy, which is used for certain parts of the A 380. "In any case," says Philippe Jarry, Marketing Director for Airbus, "not all parts of an airplane undergo the same kinds of stress. We use alloys in specific places and are advancing step by step." Airbus has chosen a "gray" airplane.
Airbus wants to limit the damage
Boeing has gone for a radical solution that is both unexpected and ambitious, and has taken Airbus by surprise. Noël Forgeard, the CEO of Airbus, took months before admitting in July 2004 that the 787 "existed" and would indeed be built. The executive board of EADS, Airbus' main shareholder, anxiously studied the issue, and then decided on a first-things-first strategy by launching the A 350 program, an upgraded version of the existing A 330. In fact this is an A 330 with new engines - the very same model developed by Rolls Royce for the 787 (Nicely played!) - and more composite materials, especially in the wings. This was an emergency solution, and the completely new airplane scenario was postponed. Firstly for financial reasons, since Airbus doesn't have the resources at hand to immediately invest large sums after developing the A 380; but also for questions of timing. It had to act quickly, and going back to the drawing board would have handed the 787 a free ticket for several years during which it could sweep up the whole of the market. With the A 350, Airbus is not trying to beat the 787 but at least to limit the damage.
But it's not over yet. Not only has Boeing managed to hit hard with the 787, but it is also preparing for the follow-up. The black airplane is going to spawn further models, and Airbus knows it. "They are going to build a whole family starting from the 787. They're absolutely right, since they're doing the same as us," says Philippe Jarry. "If I were them I wouldn't have named it the 787 with those traditional 7s, but 878 to show it was a brand new concept." History has in fact repeated itself in reverse. Twenty years ago, Airbus introduced the amazing innovation of fly by wire with the A 320. This technology was then applied to other Airbus models, and in two decades, it rendered most of Boeing's airplanes obsolete. Today, Boeing is getting ready to repay the favor.
The next "black family" model is likely to be a small sized, single aisle airplane. "This has the highest probability," admits Randy Baseler, VP Marketing with Boeing." It should come out towards the middle of the next decade." For Airbus, this is a nasty threat since it targets the highest volume segment. Yet Philippe Jarry is not so sure. "For short haul airplanes, there's a different logic at work. The competition includes rail and cars. An all-black plane is almost certainly going to be too expensive." "On the contrary," retorts Mike Bair, "What you have to look at are assembly costs. While you have five or six large pieces of carbon for a 787, there would only be two pieces for a smaller airplane." A Lego plane! Now with the help of special software from Dassault Systèmes, Boeing hopes to assemble the 787 in fewer than 3 days.
In due course, the whole Boeing range could be reinvented in light of the 787. "We hope to keep a two to three year lead over Airbus so we can renew our airplanes in each segment," says Randy Baseler. As for Airbus, it will have to wait for the A 380 and then the A 350 to roll out before its starts any new projects. "We are patrolling the market to see which technologies are available," they say at Airbus. The battle of the black airplanes has only just begun.
Box: Was Boeing bluffing?
It was called the Sonic Cruiser, and was Boeing's flagship project before it was abandoned and the 787 took its place. A splendid delta winged airplane which would fly slightly faster than ordinary airplanes, just below the sound barrier. At that time, back in 2001, many observers joked about it, saying that the air resistance was so high at that speed that the airplane would need to consume huge quantities of fuel. Air instability would also make it very uncomfortable to travel in. And technically, you would have to build what amounted to a semi-supersonic airplane for rather average time savings. Then suddenly, rumor had it that the Sonic Cruiser was just a decoy to divert attention from Airbus as it began to show off its A 380. "That's not true," says Mike Bair, VP at Boeing. "We did intend to build it. American Airlines, for example, was very interested. But then came 9-11, which hit airlines badly and they are now insisting on cost efficiency. Hence the 787. "Pull the other one! say Airbus and EADS, where many people are still convinced that they were victims of a great piece of bluffing.
Carbon or "black" airplanes - Boeing's secret weapon to overthrow Airbus from its dominant position. And the Europeans didn't see it coming.
Le Point 03/17/05
author: Etienne Gernelle
Le Point - March 17, 2005
Boeing: the Empire strikes back
Carbon or "black" airplanes - Boeing's secret weapon to overthrow Airbus from its dominant position. And the Europeans didn't see it coming.
Etienne Gernelle
It's Boeing secret weapon, set to win the battle of the skies against Airbus - a black airplane. In other words, it is made of carbon, whereas mainstream white airplanes are made of aluminum. This flying threat is called the 787 (formerly the 7E7) which will be rolled out in 2008. "All airplanes will be black in the future," forecasts Mike Bair, head of the 787 program, and he believes that this is one of the "century's three great advances in aviation." Boeing engineers have come up with a slogan: "stop thinking metal." The black airplane will be more resistant, lighter and hence a fuel saver. The aim is to end Airbus' domination. And the European company didn't see this coming.
At Airbus, and its parent company EADS, they admit that the sleeping giant Boeing has awoken. Despite the serial setbacks of CEOs Phil Conduit and Harry Stonecipher, removed after a conflict of interest scandal in the case of the former and an extramarital affair for the latter, the old lady of Seattle is once again showing its claws. Wounded pride oblige. For the last four years, Airbus has led the field in terms of orders and for the last two years in deliveries as well. Meanwhile, two of Boeing's airplanes have stopped production due to lack of customers. And two more are under threat. Luckily the company can count on its military division, which now brings in the majority of its revenues. But it had to react swiftly to save its commercial airplane business. The 787 is a first response, and has already netted 64 firm orders and 129 commitments to buy.
The next problem is getting it built, since a black airplane is a leap into the unknown. It's enough to give the most experienced engineers nightmares. Two years ago, Boeing best brains were locked inside large meeting rooms in Seattle, and told they could only come out when they had reached agreement. Boeing's engineers had realized that it wasn't enough merely to replace aluminum with carbon, since the pylons and joints would require much more work and weight. So the sections had to be built in a single block: No one had ever done this before, except on small aircraft.
The solution they went is to roll a large Scotch tape of carbon around a metal cylinder - a daring but successful move. On January 12 in a hangar in Seattle, Boeing unveiled a cylinder 6.7 meters long and 5.7 meters in diameter made of a single block of carbon. It was in fact the rear section of the future 787. "If we had built it out of aluminum, it would have taken 1,200 sheets and 40,000 rivets," says Mike Bair.
While the technical obstacle has been overcome, it must be admitted that it involved a huge investment of between US$ 7 and 10 billion, according to aviation consultants with the Teal Group. The challenge is to control production costs, since as it is well known, carbon is extremely expensive. "Prices drop as volumes grow larger," replies Mike Bair. "Today, composites are used to make your golf clubs and tennis racquets." At Airbus, they are still somewhat skeptical and note that there are already all-carbon planes such as the B2 bomber but they cost US$ 1 billion a piece, and only carry two people! Airbus has opted for Glare, a lighter aluminum alloy, which is used for certain parts of the A 380. "In any case," says Philippe Jarry, Marketing Director for Airbus, "not all parts of an airplane undergo the same kinds of stress. We use alloys in specific places and are advancing step by step." Airbus has chosen a "gray" airplane.
Airbus wants to limit the damage
Boeing has gone for a radical solution that is both unexpected and ambitious, and has taken Airbus by surprise. Noël Forgeard, the CEO of Airbus, took months before admitting in July 2004 that the 787 "existed" and would indeed be built. The executive board of EADS, Airbus' main shareholder, anxiously studied the issue, and then decided on a first-things-first strategy by launching the A 350 program, an upgraded version of the existing A 330. In fact this is an A 330 with new engines - the very same model developed by Rolls Royce for the 787 (Nicely played!) - and more composite materials, especially in the wings. This was an emergency solution, and the completely new airplane scenario was postponed. Firstly for financial reasons, since Airbus doesn't have the resources at hand to immediately invest large sums after developing the A 380; but also for questions of timing. It had to act quickly, and going back to the drawing board would have handed the 787 a free ticket for several years during which it could sweep up the whole of the market. With the A 350, Airbus is not trying to beat the 787 but at least to limit the damage.
But it's not over yet. Not only has Boeing managed to hit hard with the 787, but it is also preparing for the follow-up. The black airplane is going to spawn further models, and Airbus knows it. "They are going to build a whole family starting from the 787. They're absolutely right, since they're doing the same as us," says Philippe Jarry. "If I were them I wouldn't have named it the 787 with those traditional 7s, but 878 to show it was a brand new concept." History has in fact repeated itself in reverse. Twenty years ago, Airbus introduced the amazing innovation of fly by wire with the A 320. This technology was then applied to other Airbus models, and in two decades, it rendered most of Boeing's airplanes obsolete. Today, Boeing is getting ready to repay the favor.
The next "black family" model is likely to be a small sized, single aisle airplane. "This has the highest probability," admits Randy Baseler, VP Marketing with Boeing." It should come out towards the middle of the next decade." For Airbus, this is a nasty threat since it targets the highest volume segment. Yet Philippe Jarry is not so sure. "For short haul airplanes, there's a different logic at work. The competition includes rail and cars. An all-black plane is almost certainly going to be too expensive." "On the contrary," retorts Mike Bair, "What you have to look at are assembly costs. While you have five or six large pieces of carbon for a 787, there would only be two pieces for a smaller airplane." A Lego plane! Now with the help of special software from Dassault Systèmes, Boeing hopes to assemble the 787 in fewer than 3 days.
In due course, the whole Boeing range could be reinvented in light of the 787. "We hope to keep a two to three year lead over Airbus so we can renew our airplanes in each segment," says Randy Baseler. As for Airbus, it will have to wait for the A 380 and then the A 350 to roll out before its starts any new projects. "We are patrolling the market to see which technologies are available," they say at Airbus. The battle of the black airplanes has only just begun.
Box: Was Boeing bluffing?
It was called the Sonic Cruiser, and was Boeing's flagship project before it was abandoned and the 787 took its place. A splendid delta winged airplane which would fly slightly faster than ordinary airplanes, just below the sound barrier. At that time, back in 2001, many observers joked about it, saying that the air resistance was so high at that speed that the airplane would need to consume huge quantities of fuel. Air instability would also make it very uncomfortable to travel in. And technically, you would have to build what amounted to a semi-supersonic airplane for rather average time savings. Then suddenly, rumor had it that the Sonic Cruiser was just a decoy to divert attention from Airbus as it began to show off its A 380. "That's not true," says Mike Bair, VP at Boeing. "We did intend to build it. American Airlines, for example, was very interested. But then came 9-11, which hit airlines badly and they are now insisting on cost efficiency. Hence the 787. "Pull the other one! say Airbus and EADS, where many people are still convinced that they were victims of a great piece of bluffing.
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