Blu-Ray's Future and Flash Memory

[lopri]

I can't help but wonder where Optical media will be going in the future. When Blu-Ray and HD-DVD were developed, do you think they'd expected such an explosive growth of NAND flash? I'm betting the answer is no.

What's left for the optical in the future? I can't imagine any aspect where it excels flash memory in near future.

 

[amdhunter]

I don't think flash media for high definition video/gaming will take off anytime soon, since many of these games can hit into the tens of gigabytes. Memory is cheap right now, but you won't see it drop enough to make it cost effective to distribute High Definition media on. (Blurays are probably pennies to manufacture right now.)

SONY is at least starting the trend with the new PSP by selling games on media, but I think that's as far as we will see it for the time being.

 

[yh125d]

I think digital downloads will grow faster than flash based media delivery. Bandwidth is cheap. Cheaper than flash

 

[erwos]

Originally posted by: yh125d
I think digital downloads will grow faster than flash based media delivery. Bandwidth is cheap. Cheaper than flash

Bingo. Cheap as flash is, it's still more expensive than bandwidth or optical discs.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

But for backing up? I think HDD or optical media is better than flash memory.

 

[lopri]

Yeah there still are advantages of the optical, but I expect those will deteriorate over time. What's important for portable media - speed, capacity, durability, portability (size), compatibility/convenience (USB for flash, ROM drive for optical).. etc. Right now DVD/Blu-Ray might be better on durability front, but with the advent of SSD and accompanying development, flash will become more durable very quickly. At that point I don't think there will be any advantage of the optical media.

 

[mmntech]

Flash memory is complex and expensive to mass produce. Blu-ray disc can be pressed on the same machinery used to make CDs and DVDs at a fraction of the cost of flash. Digital downloads will eventually take over but not for a while yet as most people don't have suitable bandwidth speeds for streaming. Also, work is being done on optical Holographic Versatile Discs (HVD), which could possibly be used to store Ultra-High Definition Video. I don't think optical is going anywhere anytime soon. At least not for storing video formats.