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Blu-Ray may very likely have greater market penetration

J

jtvang125

Diamond Member
It is estimated that by Oct 06 65,000 standalone hd-dvd players will have been sold. Couldn't find any solid sales figure for BR players but I did read that HDDVD players are outselling BR players by 33%. But coming November the ps3 will be launching with an initial 500,000 units. That's 500,000 BR drives right there. Of course MS is also launching a hd-dvd add on but nobody really knows for sure how successful that's going to be.

But then again if hybrid players become possible this whole format war may finally be settled.
 
How many of those PS3 owners are going to run out and blow $25 on BluRay movies though? Pretty sure it'll be a small number, since most are buying it for the games.

Still, could be the boost Sony needs to keep BluRay alive for a little while longer.
 
You have to figure probably only 20% of those PS3s will be used on HDTVs, and the other 80% wouldn't benefit much from using it as a BR player.
 
Originally posted by: jtvang125
It is estimated that by Oct 06 65,000 standalone hd-dvd players will have been sold. Couldn't find any solid sales figure for BR players but I did read that HDDVD players are outselling BR players by 33%. But coming November the ps3 will be launching with an initial 500,000 units. That's 500,000 BR drives right there. Of course MS is also launching a hd-dvd add on but nobody really knows for sure how successful that's going to be.

But then again if hybrid players become possible this whole format war may finally be settled.
Click to expand...

Not every person that buys a PS3 has a HDTV. Every person that buys HD-DVD most defiitely does.

Nor does it even come with the required HDMI cable.

Blu-ray may have a initial boost in sales due to the PS3, but it doesnt have one thing that is most probably the single biggest factor. Name recognition.
 
Does that also mean the 500,000 have a HDTV set that would warrant them purchasing the drive? That is a PS3 first and a Blu-Ray second. Sure, Sony will use the number but can it be used as a 'true' number?
 
And you have to figure that if someone wants it as a cheap BR player, they could get a cheap HD-DVD player for the same price by getting an Xbox 360 and HD-DVD add-on. So I don't think the PS3 will have a huge effect on the "format war"

Edit: Wait, HD-DVD players are already only $500, aren't they?

So it could help some if price is keeping people away from BluRay, but not as much as you think.
 
Originally posted by: Sphexi
How many of those PS3 owners are going to run out and blow $25 on BluRay movies though? Pretty sure it'll be a small number, since most are buying it for the games.

Still, could be the boost Sony needs to keep BluRay alive for a little while longer.
Click to expand...

Whether they buy a BluRay movie or not, the penetration for the player will be there.
When they eventually decide to get HD movies, they are almost certainly going to get BluRay rather than getting an HD-DVD player + HD-DVD movie, because they already have the hardware for BluRay.
 
Originally posted by: Lonyo
Originally posted by: Sphexi
How many of those PS3 owners are going to run out and blow $25 on BluRay movies though? Pretty sure it'll be a small number, since most are buying it for the games.

Still, could be the boost Sony needs to keep BluRay alive for a little while longer.
Click to expand...

Whether they buy a BluRay movie or not, the penetration for the player will be there.
When they eventually decide to get HD movies, they are almost certainly going to get BluRay rather than getting an HD-DVD player + HD-DVD movie, because they already have the hardware for BluRay.
Click to expand...
The question is, can Sony take the financial beating up to that time (when the majority of consumers have HDTVs)? They're losing a substantial amount of money whenever they sell a PS3. There isn't exactly a huge lineup of games coming in the launch window for them to profit from. This will be interesting to observe.
 
i predict NEC is going to make a lot of money.


format 'war' won't be settled until these things are available at $100 each. then you'll see market penetration greater than 25%.
 
I don't think bluray has any chance of winning the format war. What will happen is either hd-dvd will win or they will both lose.
 
Originally posted by: BD2003
Originally posted by: jtvang125
It is estimated that by Oct 06 65,000 standalone hd-dvd players will have been sold. Couldn't find any solid sales figure for BR players but I did read that HDDVD players are outselling BR players by 33%. But coming November the ps3 will be launching with an initial 500,000 units. That's 500,000 BR drives right there. Of course MS is also launching a hd-dvd add on but nobody really knows for sure how successful that's going to be.

But then again if hybrid players become possible this whole format war may finally be settled.
Click to expand...

Not every person that buys a PS3 has a HDTV. Every person that buys HD-DVD most defiitely does.

Nor does it even come with the required HDMI cable.

Blu-ray may have a initial boost in sales due to the PS3, but it doesnt have one thing that is most probably the single biggest factor. Name recognition.
Click to expand...

Doesn't even come with component cables. The only thing Sony is putting in the PS3 box are composite cables.
 
Originally posted by: BD2003
Originally posted by: jtvang125
It is estimated that by Oct 06 65,000 standalone hd-dvd players will have been sold. Couldn't find any solid sales figure for BR players but I did read that HDDVD players are outselling BR players by 33%. But coming November the ps3 will be launching with an initial 500,000 units. That's 500,000 BR drives right there. Of course MS is also launching a hd-dvd add on but nobody really knows for sure how successful that's going to be.

But then again if hybrid players become possible this whole format war may finally be settled.
Click to expand...

Not every person that buys a PS3 has a HDTV. Every person that buys HD-DVD most defiitely does.

Nor does it even come with the required HDMI cable.

Blu-ray may have a initial boost in sales due to the PS3, but it doesnt have one thing that is most probably the single biggest factor. Name recognition.
Click to expand...

Anyone know where I can get an HDMI-to-Composite cable?

:laugh:
 
Originally posted by: Lonyo
Originally posted by: Sphexi
How many of those PS3 owners are going to run out and blow $25 on BluRay movies though? Pretty sure it'll be a small number, since most are buying it for the games.

Still, could be the boost Sony needs to keep BluRay alive for a little while longer.
Click to expand...

Whether they buy a BluRay movie or not, the penetration for the player will be there.
When they eventually decide to get HD movies, they are almost certainly going to get BluRay rather than getting an HD-DVD player + HD-DVD movie, because they already have the hardware for BluRay.
Click to expand...

But this is working under the assumption that people use their console as a DVD player. I honestly don't know anyone (other than some people on these forums) who used a PS2 or Xbox as their primary DVD player. I tried to use the PS2 as my primary once and it was horrible. You're basically early adopting the technology in the PS3 so it is only logical for me to assume, based on my experience with PS2, that the blu-ray drive is going to suck.
 
Originally posted by: Shawn
I don't think bluray has any chance of winning the format war. What will happen is either hd-dvd will win or they will both lose.
Click to expand...

Thats what I am hoping, but lo and behold what zealous fanboyism can do. I stopped arguing against PS worshippers.
 
Has sony come up with any solution for the really ****** video quality people have been getting with bluray? if HDDVD is really noticeably better, I don't think there's going to be that much of a war as the prices come down.
 
Originally posted by: drinkmorejava
Has sony come up with any solution for the really ****** video quality people have been getting with bluray? if HDDVD is really noticeably better, I don't think there's going to be that much of a war as the prices come down.
Click to expand...

Blu-Ray producers have started to use the same video codec that HD-DVD is using, VC-1. Blu-Ray was previously using MPEG2 and many attributed that to the comparatively bad video quality. This switch has also rumoredly resulted in the delay of some Blu-Ray titles.
 
Backing a company that has failed when launching any proprietary format is foolish. Betamax, Minidisc, Atrac players, Memory Stick, UMD, they have all pretty much failed.
 
You guys need to really wake up on this one. A LOT of the people I know who have a PS2 use it to play DVDs and play games. Games get played more for sure, but it gets a good exerscise as a DVD player. I never bothered with DVDs until I DID get my Ps2 simply because I had no need for DVDS....but once the ps2 provided the option I found myself getting more attached to them. All this BS about how no one will use it to play movies simply isn't true. If anything I would think tge only case where most people don't play any DVDs are the Xbox because people are too lazy to get that adapter (i don't think cost matters that much, its only 20 bucks now)-- the Ps2 does it built in.

Technology pushes people to get better technology. Once people get PS3s and Xbox2s and they see how much better it does look on HDTV, it will propel them to get 720p or 1080i/p sets.

edit:

pointing out though that the estimation of 65K HD players in Oct06 vs 500K Blue Ray being infused into the market really puts things into perspective
 
other than the aspect ratio i really can't see much difference between my xbox on SD mode and my xbox on HD 720P mode. massive jaggies still everywhere.
 
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