The most important fact the dipshit studios needed to realize before taking payola from Sony to drop HD-DVD was the fact that PS3 sales do not equal BR media market share, and it most likely never will.
I would estimate a majority of people who own a PS3 bought it for games. And they are teens or younger even and they are primarily playing games on the PS3 and not particularly interested in watching BR movies at all, much less buying BRs, unless they decide to rent a few on the parents rental memberships. Since they don't have an income, their obvious effect on the BR sales market is virtually nonexistant.
Remember that most tweens do not even own a 1080p HDTV or monitor, and for personal gaming use are still using either a hand me down tube PC monitor on their hand me down PC or a hand me down old SD tube TV of some sort to play games on in their rooms. They might occasionally use the main 1080p TV in the living room that the parents bought to play games on, but when the parents are around, you can bet the kids take the PS3 to their bedrooms again, or just don't use it at all.
And if the parents are also serious about BR media they will buy their own BR player, and not use the kids PS3, too. So that means this house may have 2 BR players in it, or even more if there are several PS3s in it, but the parents are doing the sole BR buying and renting and the kids have virtually zero financial input in this process. Which is why total BR player numbers, including PS3 sales, do not equal BR media sales, and likely never will.
So in order to figure an accurate number of actual BR player sales which will result in BR media sales, you would need to take the total number of PS3 sales, and subtract as much as 75% from the total, then add in BR stand alone players to get a reasonable number to figure how many people might actually buy or rent BR medias. I also know a lot of kids who have PS3s, and NONE of them have 1080p monitors or HDTVs that they are connected to. They bought the PS3 just because they liked it, and their friends have one, and they swap games around. They were NOT bought for a BR player.
And another thing to consider in the BR sales numbers, a majority of the sales are to rental places. I would even estimate around 2/3s or more of them, and once these large rental places buy a few truckloads of one new title on BR, they are not going to be buying any more. So that new title will then sit on a store shelf for sale for who knows how long, before the entire manufacturers run is depleted, which might take months or YEARS depending on how many they overproduced of a title, like Speed Racer, lets say. So the sales numbers of a new BR title are really suspect based on this rental presale when the new title might actually flop if more people decide to rent the stinker than buy it on BR.
So based on all these variable consumer sales market factors that you either can't accurately pin down or get BR studio supporters to honestly reveal, real consumer market sales of BR players and medias are really a hide and seek shell game at this point. And any rosy BR sales projections or BR sales reports are obviously being massively manipulated and slanted in favor of BR by the manufacturing and studio conglomerates at this point.
In a year or so when a higher resolution media than 1080p is needed (and for projection it already is) we will see what Toshiba or Sony cooks up to fill that void. Both companies are already working on that next generation media, which is most likely why Toshiba appeared to throw in the towel so easily. Why continue to waste development efforts on an outdated 1080p format a few years down the road? It makes more sense to let Sony have this short term BR win, especially if Sony is losing money on it, if you are looking 2 or 3 years down the road in the media development cycle.
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