Hi guys. I'm working on a scenario involving the intentional demolition of a large pressurized cargo tank containing a liquefied petroleum gas at or near ambient temperature. Obviously this scenario is a fictional one for analysis purposes. I'm seeking input on the probability of causing a BLEVE event on such a tank of capacity > 1500 M^3 through the use of explosives to initiate rupture of the pressure vessel.
The purpose of the analysis is to describe qualitatively and quantitatively a plausible scenario in which an actor might cause maximum damage by utilizing the cargo of an ocean-going vessel as a weapon.
The cargo I have chosen is Vinyl Chloride Monomer in liquified state, carried at maximum 45 deg. C ambient temperature. The tank(s) are bullet-shaped, built to withstand a maximum pressure of 18 bar-g (257.65 psi). At an operating temperature of 20 deg. C the vapor pressure of VCM is approx. 50 psi. which is the assumed pressure for the development of this scenario. The tank shell and heads are likely constructed of SA 612 carbon steel in a thickness of between 19 - 22mm., with a phenolic epoxy inner coating of 6 mm. At 100% load the tank would contain approximately 1200 metric tons of liquid VCM.
A simple mass release of this material would be bad enough, as VCM has a number of noxious immediate effects and potential long-term health risks. In addition it is explosive in vapor form, and has the potential to polymerize explosively under certain conditions. This material was chosen for the scenario over materials like methane, butane, and propane because of its additional toxicity concerns, as well as the fact that much less attention is paid to it over the more ominous LNG/LPG cargoes of the moment, which are probably much safer (certainly so in refrigerated ambient-pressure carriage scenarios).
To up the ante I am postulating the actor attempting to cause a BLEVE or BLEVE-like event by cutting the fully-loaded tank using explosives. A BLEVE, for those unfamiliar, is a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion. In a BLEVE event warming of a pressurized cargo, perhaps due to external fire) proceeds to the point where the pressure vessel ruptures. If the rupture extends across a significant portion of the tank the contents may depressurize catastrophically forming a huge expanding vapor cloud. The cloud may or may not ignite. BLEVEs can occur with nonflammable gases such as steam. The initial depressurization provides the concussive damage (in one such event with a railcar the tank was thrown over 300 meters), and if the material is inflammable that may be followed by a fireball. Anyone who has tossed an aerosol can into a campfire has probably seen a BLEVE on a small scale.
The key to a BLEVE appears to be the size of the rupture. With a long rupture you may get a BLEVE, whereas a smaller opening is likely to cause a jet that doesn't result in catastrophic failure of the vessel. In my scenario, rather than warming the contents to the point where internal pressure causes the tank to rupture, I postulate the use of high explosive such as C4 shaped charges, or shockwave refraction tape to essentially take the top off the tank in one instantaneous event.
The technical question is: would this be likely to initiate a BLEVE? The pressure would be much lower than in the warm up and burst scenario, but the explosives would guarantee instantaneous escape of the entire tank load (and possibly ignition). A release in Britain a few years back of just 600 kg of VCM caused a huge vapor cloud which fortunately did not ignite (although it did polymerize all over the vessel and dock).
Any insights would be appreciated as I am trying to make the scenario as plausible and realistic as possible.
The purpose of the analysis is to describe qualitatively and quantitatively a plausible scenario in which an actor might cause maximum damage by utilizing the cargo of an ocean-going vessel as a weapon.
The cargo I have chosen is Vinyl Chloride Monomer in liquified state, carried at maximum 45 deg. C ambient temperature. The tank(s) are bullet-shaped, built to withstand a maximum pressure of 18 bar-g (257.65 psi). At an operating temperature of 20 deg. C the vapor pressure of VCM is approx. 50 psi. which is the assumed pressure for the development of this scenario. The tank shell and heads are likely constructed of SA 612 carbon steel in a thickness of between 19 - 22mm., with a phenolic epoxy inner coating of 6 mm. At 100% load the tank would contain approximately 1200 metric tons of liquid VCM.
A simple mass release of this material would be bad enough, as VCM has a number of noxious immediate effects and potential long-term health risks. In addition it is explosive in vapor form, and has the potential to polymerize explosively under certain conditions. This material was chosen for the scenario over materials like methane, butane, and propane because of its additional toxicity concerns, as well as the fact that much less attention is paid to it over the more ominous LNG/LPG cargoes of the moment, which are probably much safer (certainly so in refrigerated ambient-pressure carriage scenarios).
To up the ante I am postulating the actor attempting to cause a BLEVE or BLEVE-like event by cutting the fully-loaded tank using explosives. A BLEVE, for those unfamiliar, is a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion. In a BLEVE event warming of a pressurized cargo, perhaps due to external fire) proceeds to the point where the pressure vessel ruptures. If the rupture extends across a significant portion of the tank the contents may depressurize catastrophically forming a huge expanding vapor cloud. The cloud may or may not ignite. BLEVEs can occur with nonflammable gases such as steam. The initial depressurization provides the concussive damage (in one such event with a railcar the tank was thrown over 300 meters), and if the material is inflammable that may be followed by a fireball. Anyone who has tossed an aerosol can into a campfire has probably seen a BLEVE on a small scale.
The key to a BLEVE appears to be the size of the rupture. With a long rupture you may get a BLEVE, whereas a smaller opening is likely to cause a jet that doesn't result in catastrophic failure of the vessel. In my scenario, rather than warming the contents to the point where internal pressure causes the tank to rupture, I postulate the use of high explosive such as C4 shaped charges, or shockwave refraction tape to essentially take the top off the tank in one instantaneous event.
The technical question is: would this be likely to initiate a BLEVE? The pressure would be much lower than in the warm up and burst scenario, but the explosives would guarantee instantaneous escape of the entire tank load (and possibly ignition). A release in Britain a few years back of just 600 kg of VCM caused a huge vapor cloud which fortunately did not ignite (although it did polymerize all over the vessel and dock).
Any insights would be appreciated as I am trying to make the scenario as plausible and realistic as possible.