Bill Ford Jr. 'It would have been so catastrophic...it would have brought down

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
Ok, help me out here -- lets say GM / Chrysler go under, and suppliers lose big customers. Suppliers might go out of business etc, I get that. But as with any industry, if there is a demand for a good (lets say, an alternator), someone will step in and produce that good. In a competitive market, companies will compete and produce that good. If the company that supplies alternators to Ford and GM goes under, wouldn't some other company step in and produce alternators for Ford?

Try producing a complex fuel tank, fuel line, brake line, etc. in a timely manner and in volume (in excess of 500,000 per year in some cases). The tooling may take up to a year to build just to get to the production phase. Sure, the "out of business supplier" can be replaced, but if you are Honda, would you want your Accord line shut down for up to a year because you could not get a fuel tank in that amount of time?

Originally posted by: smashp
Anybody that Argues against the government bailout of GM and Chrysler and doesnt believe that their collapse would have the greater consequences stated By My Ford jr, have no clue and are intellectually weak and feeble.


four simple words

JUST IN TIME INVENTORY


JIT bitches live and die by it

Preach it brother...preach it!

 

[Fern]

Haha, this thread is funny.

News flash, Chrysler and GM have gone under, and the suppliers are not being bailed out.

We've blown 10's of billions of dollars for a brief delay and to give the ownership of automakers to the UAW.

Mission Accomplished!

Fern

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Fern
Haha, this thread is funny.

News flash, Chrysler and GM have gone under, and the suppliers are not being bailed out.

We've blown 10's of billions of dollars for a brief delay and to give the ownership of automakers to the UAW.

Mission Accomplished!

Fern

I'm not sure what other people mean when they say "gone under" but I personally mean "liquidated". My company is still producing and shipping parts to GM and if they had been liquidated, that would not have happened. We start shipping again to Chrysler next week, again not possible had Chrysler been liquidated. Would we have survived if both GM and Chrysler been liquidated (shut down)? Possibly but I bet there are thousands of others in far worse shape than we are (our CEO states this with figures often) and also rely on GM/Chrysler far more than we do.

On a side note, our company has managed to pick up a few "emergency" business items from other suppliers that have already "gone under" (shut down and liquidated).

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: Pulsar

You, sir, have no frickin clue what a global economy is. Go find out how many companies actually BUILD riding lawnmowers and get back to us. Hint: It's less than 4. Go find out how many companies truly BUILD laptops. Hint: It's like 2. Go find out how many companies build LCD displays. Hint: It's like 2 or 3.

It's not just the Car Industry smart ass. It's ALL big business. Go villify someone else for a change.

:roll:

who pissed in your cheerios this morning? did i anywhere say the whole world wasn't like that? no. you can shove your internet ebadassery back up the hole it came out of.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Fern
Haha, this thread is funny.

News flash, Chrysler and GM have gone under, and the suppliers are not being bailed out.

We've blown 10's of billions of dollars for a brief delay and to give the ownership of automakers to the UAW.

Mission Accomplished!

Fern

I'm not sure what other people mean when they say "gone under" but I personally mean "liquidated".
-snip-

Well, let's just substitute "bankrupt" for "gone under" (it was impression most use "gone under" as a euphomism for bankruptcy) .

During discussion of the bailout many said GM and Chrysler couldn't go through bankruptcy because no one would want to buy cars from them etc.

Well, they went bankrupt anyway.

Anybody back then who was saying if they went bankrupt it meant liquidation was fear-mongering. Liquidation means a 'fire-sale' of the assets in an auction, and particularly given the economic condition present that would ensure the creditors got as little as possible - contrary to the objective of the trustee and judge in banjruptcy proceedings.

No, they're worth more kept as a whole, but restructured.

IMO, they were never going to be liquidated and what happend was primarily intended to help the UAW avoid what happened with the airline unions/employees in bankruptcy. Additional their VEBA plans were heavily invested in non-collateralized bonds, i.e., they would've got nothing because too many secured bondholders were in front of them. Instead the secured bondholders got strong-armed and the UAW ended up owning the automaker (and their VEBA plans got money for their bonds).

No matter what happens to any particular automaker, suppliers still face the huge problem of the sheer/substanial decline in demand for new cars etc. Those who can survive until that turns-around are gonna be well positioned eventually (with fewer competitors who've been unable to last).

This reminds of something I leanred some time ago; I was sent to Harvard Univ. business classes by PriceWaterhouseCoopers when I worked with them. Competitors aren't just those who manufacture the same products as you, but are also your customers - particularly when they are big customers. Big customers have a great deal of leverage over their suppliers, and your fate is linked with theirs. (The same can be said of big suppliers you might depend upon, if they're your only source they can practically raise prices at will; just as big customers whom your business is dependant upon can practically set what prices they will pay you.) If I was in the auto parts supply business I'd be looking to diversify outside of the auto market (I expect many are doing that now).

Fern

 

[JEDIYoda]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Genx87
The auto industry is in free fall and there is still a cascade of bankruptcies including both Chrysler and GM.

True that. It seems the bailout did what I thought it would do, which was to push the problem ahead several months without actually solving anything else whatsoever. And that's why Chrysler and GM both filed for bankruptcy anyway.

Now with some parts supplies denied extra money from Obama's car group, we can see how Bill Ford Jr.'s prediction pans out.

of course you have links to prove your diatribe or assumption....

 

[Phokus]

Originally posted by: smashp
Anybody that Argues against the government bailout of GM and Chrysler and doesnt believe that their collapse would have the greater consequences stated By My Ford jr, have no clue and are intellectually weak and feeble.


four simple words

JUST IN TIME INVENTORY


JIT bitches live and die by it

Read this thread and this thread, i'm beginning to think conservatives have NO idea how the market works at all.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Fern


No matter what happens to any particular automaker, suppliers still face the huge problem of the sheer/substanial decline in demand for new cars etc. Those who can survive until that turns-around are gonna be well positioned eventually (with fewer competitors who've been unable to last).
Fern

Going from 16 million in 2007 to 13 million in 2008 to as low as a projected 8.8 million in 2009 is indeed quite a shock. I visited one of our factories last week and it was a strange feeling being in an essentially empty (of employees, not equipment) building at 2:30pm in the afternoon. I've been in these buildings for hours on end in the past and they were nearly full during ALL shifts.

You are right though, if we can survive (which is suspected), we should really thrive as we take over the business that was vacated by those that went under (even at reduced volumes).

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: smashp
Anybody that Argues against the government bailout of GM and Chrysler and doesnt believe that their collapse would have the greater consequences stated By My Ford jr, have no clue and are intellectually weak and feeble.


four simple words

JUST IN TIME INVENTORY


JIT bitches live and die by it

Yeah, right "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of GM and Chrysler" :roll:

What about earlier remarks that "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of the financial industry"?

Well, which is it?

I supose it depends upon whichever bill/bailout you're tyring to push by fear-monger that day.

Fern

 

[MikeMike]

Originally posted by: Pulsar

#3 Mikemike. WTF are you talking about. The ONLY REASON Ford is not bankrupt is because they screwed themselves over EARLIER. Remember all that talk about Ford in trouble 3-5 years ago? They were, in a big way. So they mortgaged the entire company, at a time when cheap loans were still available. Then they made a couple very smart moves, and have managed to stay out of bankruptcy. They are NOT sitting back laughing at anyone!

Ford is VERY nervous about ALL the big 3. As is Toyota, by the way. If you do some research, you'll find that even though our wonderfully FAIR press doesn't report it much, Toyota has been pushing the US government to help the big 3 too - because they use the exact same suppliers we do.

MIKEMIKE, are you just looking to try and bust someone's balls? Because you sure as heck don't have the faintest clue what you're posting about.

here are my posts

So, while we sit here and bitch about Barney abusing his privileges... (where is Betty when we need her anyways? get your husband back in check.) We have the information, from a company who gets to sit back and laugh, that they were fearing for their lives, and the lives of everyone else... without Gov't aid, the auto industry would have been in free fall.

and

you know how a ball of yarn is wrapped around the middle section, well picture the manufacturers aka GM TM F Chry H Hyundai etc. as the center section... and then the yarn is the suppliers... witness how if you take the core out, everything attached to it crumples... that is the auto industry.

hooked on phonics worked for me, maybe you too?

and by "sit back and laugh" it was more like "haha you are gov't owned, we are private hahah" type laugh... get it? i know what has gone on, i have been following the industry for 8 years now... have talked with many within the industry, from journalists, to designers, to engineers, to competitive product specialists...

so, how about it... you want to call me out some more?

 

[Paddington]

Originally posted by: RyanPaulShaffer

Originally posted by: 1prophet

Originally posted by: RyanPaulShaffer

Originally posted by: MIKEMIKE

Originally posted by: RyanPaulShaffer
I don't understand how GM and Chrysler part suppliers going out of business would affect Ford? Is he saying that Ford uses GM and Chrysler parts in their vehicles?

Out of the "Big 3", the only one that has a glimmer of hope is Ford. GM and Chrysler are still an absolute disaster and are basically zombies. I fail to see how the bailout did anything other than flush taxpayer's money down the drain to postpone the inevitable.

you know how a ball of yarn is wrapped around the middle section, well picture the manufacturers aka GM TM F Chry H Hyundai etc. as the center section... and then the yarn is the suppliers... witness how if you take the core out, everything attached to it crumples... that is the auto industry.

I got that point, but how does GM and Chrysler suppliers going out of business affect Ford at all, unless Ford is using GM and/or Chrysler parts (which I don't think they are)?

GM and Chrysler go down, their suppliers go down, but that still leaves Ford and their suppliers ready to fill the void.

I really think Ford Jr. is just taking the "politically correct" approach to this given the current administration's tendency to persecute individuals (especially ones with money and power) who aren't "on board".

The parts suppliers diversified and make parts for many manufacturers because they can't survive on one alone, their margins are very tight and if they lose just one major customer they can can go bankrupt very quickly shutting down the entire operation and affecting all the rest of their customers.

Thank you for the explanation...that makes sense. However, the parts supplies could trim down their operations. Yes, jobs would be lost, but we are all called upon to sacrifice by our supreme leader!

What's worse...jobs lost as operations trim down, or billions of tax payers dollars down the drain AND jobs lost?

The auto industry has been in a slump since 2004. Those margins were all squeezed a long time ago. Tons of suppliers are already in bankruptcy, including the biggest ones like Visteon, Delphi, etc. If you want to know what happens when operations get paralyzed at a supplier, Google the American Axle strike of 2009. The UAW - out of petty greed - squeezed American Axle, because they didn't want to agree to any concessions. This resulted in all of GM and much of Chrysler becoming paralyzed because they couldn't get certain parts to finish their cars. Ultimately GM had to pay off the union to quit their strike against AA.

 

[smashp]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: smashp
Anybody that Argues against the government bailout of GM and Chrysler and doesnt believe that their collapse would have the greater consequences stated By My Ford jr, have no clue and are intellectually weak and feeble.


four simple words

JUST IN TIME INVENTORY


JIT bitches live and die by it

Yeah, right "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of GM and Chrysler" :roll:

What about earlier remarks that "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of the financial industry"?

Well, which is it?

I supose it depends upon whichever bill/bailout you're tyring to push by fear-monger that day.

Fern

I think this is the Exact Quote from Mr F-150.

"It would have been so catastrophic to have a supply-base meltdown because it would have brought down all the auto manufacturers and frankly some other industries as well"

 

[compuwiz1]

Originally posted by: RyanPaulShaffer
I don't understand how GM and Chrysler part suppliers going out of business would affect Ford? Is he saying that Ford uses GM and Chrysler parts in their vehicles?

Out of the "Big 3", the only one that has a glimmer of hope is Ford. GM and Chrysler are still an absolute disaster and are basically zombies. I fail to see how the bailout did anything other than flush taxpayer's money down the drain to postpone the inevitable.

Suppliers provide everything, nuts, bolts, fasteners, fabric, leather, rubber, seals, gaskets, wire harnesses, sound systems, carpet, hoses, belts, brake pads, etc. Yeah, I'd say having suppliers fail would effect everyone in the industry.

 

[Craig234]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: smashp
Anybody that Argues against the government bailout of GM and Chrysler and doesnt believe that their collapse would have the greater consequences stated By My Ford jr, have no clue and are intellectually weak and feeble.


four simple words

JUST IN TIME INVENTORY


JIT bitches live and die by it

Yeah, right "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of GM and Chrysler" :roll:

What about earlier remarks that "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of the financial industry"?

Well, which is it?

I supose it depends upon whichever bill/bailout you're tyring to push by fear-monger that day.

Fern

Yea right, during WWII the Nazis were a threat. What about the earlier claims it was the Confederacy? Before that the Brits? Which is it? Not much of an argument, Fern.

 

[SunSamuraix]

So whats actually being fixed by having saved the big 3?

I see nothing but a rusty stitch keeping a gaping wound over the jugular of the auto industry and all companies that get products from the suppliers that were kept up by the auto industry. It looks to me like all these companies were prime examples of evolution in capitalism. How would a company keep from becoming too dependent on another? Who the fuck knows, but when these all finally hemorrhage out, whatever rises in their place better sure as fuck be a hell of alot more agile for stuff like this, or the domino effect on the economy will just repeat. Saving them is pausing real progress.

 

[Pulsar]

Originally posted by: MIKEMIKE
and by "sit back and laugh" it was more like "haha you are gov't owned, we are private hahah" type laugh... get it? i know what has gone on, i have been following the industry for 8 years now... have talked with many within the industry, from journalists, to designers, to engineers, to competitive product specialists...

so, how about it... you want to call me out some more?

Not particularly. I guess I read more into it than I should have - and I apologize.

The (American) auto industry has been the whipping boy for so long, and I've been defending it against people who really have no clue how it works, that I over-react when I see yet-another-post that appears to suggest that our workers or execs are doing anything over than trying to survive. That's how I read your 'sit back and laugh' comment - so I hope you understand.

 

[DealMonkey]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: smashp
Anybody that Argues against the government bailout of GM and Chrysler and doesnt believe that their collapse would have the greater consequences stated By My Ford jr, have no clue and are intellectually weak and feeble.


four simple words

JUST IN TIME INVENTORY


JIT bitches live and die by it

Yeah, right "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of GM and Chrysler" :roll:

What about earlier remarks that "the entire U.S. economy, was riding on the survival of the financial industry"?

Well, which is it?

I supose it depends upon whichever bill/bailout you're tyring to push by fear-monger that day.

Fern

Could it be both?

You know, I truly wish we could go back in time and allow the financial and manufacturing sector to implode like a dying star and then witness the destruction that would usher in a new great, great depression unlike anything we've seen in nearly 100 years. Because we've managed to avoid that likely scenario is the only reason you and the other wingnuts can sit around and act so egotistical about how our actions were purely 'optional' and nothing but the product of so-called fear-mongering.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: smashp

Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

I think this is the Exact Quote from Mr F-150.

"It would have been so catastrophic to have a supply-base meltdown because it would have brought down all the auto manufacturers and frankly some other industries as well"

So the two troubled automakers are in (or just out of) bankruptcy, and the suppliers are getting NO bailout - are we in for financial disaster?

(Strikes me as the same situation before the bailouts, just a few months later)

Fern

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

Could it be both?

You know, I truly wish we could go back in time and allow the financial and manufacturing sector to implode like a dying star and then witness the destruction that would usher in a new great, great depression unlike anything we've seen in nearly 100 years. Because we've managed to avoid that likely scenario is the only reason you and the other wingnuts can sit around and act so egotistical about how our actions were purely 'optional' and nothing but the product of so-called fear-mongering.

I think it was neither.

"Fear mongering" was necessary to get these bailouts passed.

As far as the financial sector goes, there are thousands of smaller banks that were not, and are not in trouble. They simply didn't play with CDS nor MBS's. Note that none of them got any bailout money. Also note how much of the bailout money ended up in the hands of foreign institutions.

Our manufacturing base is much much broader than the automotive sector, most people aren't aware that we still have significant manufacturing here. Anyway, Ford and all the other manufacturing plants didn't get or need a bailout (BMW is about 1.5 hrs south of me and my Toyota truck was manufactured in the NW). Not even the entire automotive manufacturers were/are in trouble.

The only real effect I see was a slight delay in the inevitable, and a bailout to the UAW. Nothings been avoided other than the UAW getting slammed.

Fern