Discussion Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issues

[K1052]

It's just their uninformed way of saying they just want their income vs cost of living to be a better ratio.

Just get them actual real wage gains vs the COL and keep inflation normal and they will be very happy economically. Crowing about the wage gains of the last few years for the poors is just so fucking tone deaf and I don't blame them for not really liking the Dem party if that is what they hear.

"I want prices to go down" is fairly unambiguous even if I point out they've gained income. Most of them seem to view higher prices as something that was done to them vs higher income which is something they accomplished on their own.

 

[MrSquished]

"I want prices to go down" is fairly unambiguous even if I point out they've gained income. Most of them seem to view higher prices as something that was done to them vs higher income which is something they accomplished on their own.

I'm sorry you can't see the forest through the trees. Ultimately it's the gap between the cost of living and wages that is the issue. The vast majority of people would be just fine with the proper relationship of those two things. Wealth disparity vs the COL is one of the single biggest issues facing the lower and middle classes today. To go around saying, oh you've had the best wage increases while people are still living in this still very messed up system, you deserve to lose elections. People use the wrong terms all the time because they have no idea about economics. What they do know is the money they make vs goes out. To be ignorant of this is to be a terrible political party.

 

[fskimospy]

Read the Fortune article, it explains the psychology at play. Note nobody actually wants deflation as economic policy; unfortunately sustained real wage growth hasn't happened for a very long time (Clinton boom years?).

Remember average consumers aren't economists. If they don't believe they're getting annual 5% salary increases, then they'd prefer the next best thing: 2019 pre-pandemic pricing of goods and services. Obviously that isn't possible or necessarily desirable.


Your implication here is that a LOT of people, esp. low income earners, should be happy about their "record" real wages. I've shown reasons why this isn't the case but you cling to your cold, hard facts.

I'm too lazy to go suss out the data, but for conjecture's sake, let's say low income earners have experienced a real 5% annualized increase in wages since 2019. This would vastly out-strip the median increase. Do you honestly think that someone who previously earned $12/hour is ecstatic that they're making $14/hour today? The Fortune piece explicitly explains why they aren't, because they spend a much larger percentage of their after-tax income on basic necessities. And some of these every day grocery items have experienced huge price increases over time. From the article:

Yes, I think people are generally bad at understanding economic conditions but also I made no claim otherwise.

All that aside yes, the economics literature clearly indicates that self-reported happiness for someone making real wages of $14 would be higher than someone making real wages of $12, all else being equal.

 

[Jaskalas]

We had one moron in this thread yell at me that homeowners of a primary residence should be unhappy about their home values increasing!

Says the guy pretending they can eat their home value.

 

[fskimospy]

"I want prices to go down" is fairly unambiguous even if I point out they've gained income. Most of them seem to view higher prices as something that was done to them vs higher income which is something they accomplished on their own.

Seems like a fairly straightforward case of loss aversion to me. You would think that logically gaining $100 and losing $100 would net the same amount of happiness/sadness respectively but they don't. People feel considerably worse about losing $100 than gaining it. I suspect it goes the same way with inflation - even if they are net winners they feel like they're losing.

 

[K1052]

I'm sorry you can't see the forest through the trees. Ultimately it's the gap between the cost of living and wages that is the issue. The vast majority of people would be just fine with the proper relationship of those two things. Wealth disparity vs the COL is one of the single biggest issues facing the lower and middle classes today. To go around saying, oh you've had the best wage increases while people are still living in this still very messed up system, you deserve to lose elections. People use the wrong terms all the time because they have no idea about economics. What they do know is the money they make vs goes out. To be ignorant of this is to be a terrible political party.

I don't think telling people the economy is good (which by the metrics is true) so they should be happy is a productive political message and I don't think I've ever claimed it was.

I'd redirect their dissatisfaction onto Republicans who not only don't give a fuck about them but who will give huge tax cuts again to companies that have been gouging them.

 

[K1052]

Seems like a fairly straightforward case of loss aversion to me. You would think that logically gaining $100 and losing $100 would net the same amount of happiness/sadness respectively but they don't. People feel considerably worse about losing $100 than gaining it. I suspect it goes the same way with inflation - even if they are net winners they feel like they're losing.

Yeah, I think this is probably the dynamic at play.

 

[Jaskalas]

No, but there has also not been 50% inflation since 2020.

As I said, anecdotally, the prices of things I purchase at the store are 50% higher.
But I don't know the full and total value difference. I am looking for that data.

But let's be clear on a couple of things before someone interjects.

1. I think the economy is okay, all things considered.
2. But I do believe inflation has hurt people.
3. I will never blame the President for this. Unlike right wing agitprop.

I am simply commenting on WHY people feel bad about the economy. I see information that "everything is happy and good", but that's not true. That's not my truth. And here is why. That's the totality of my statement here. Before others add straw to it.

 

[MrSquished]

Yeah, I think this is probably the dynamic at play.

As a concept, yes of course that is the dynamic. But overall, the real issue is COL vs income/benefits.

The issue is when some on here go around saying things like that miniscule overall gain is the best wage increase in ages, it's completely tone-deaf. I'm just saying they are making the problem worse. This is what you are hearing from disaffected lower income Dems and Independents. Here are the Dems crowing bout Bidenomics but really, I'm barely ahead of where I was a few years ago, and that was shitty already. that is HOW TO LOSE AN ELECTION 101

Ultimately if the difference was where it should be, between COL and income/benefits, the average voter would not give a shit about some inflation overall. Sure they would not be happy, but if life was actually relatively fair, it's a non-issue.

 

[pmv]

Seems like a fairly straightforward case of loss aversion to me. You would think that logically gaining $100 and losing $100 would net the same amount of happiness/sadness respectively but they don't. People feel considerably worse about losing $100 than gaining it. I suspect it goes the same way with inflation - even if they are net winners they feel like they're losing.

I would have thought that how people value losing money compared to gaining it, would be critically-dependent on how much of it they have to begin with. Losing $100 is a disaster if you only have $100, and it means becoming homeless, because you can't pay this month's rent, say. It's not surprising then that gaining $100 is not an equal-and-opposite effect.
Anyone seriously struggling is going to feel every financial hit quite acutely.

 

[IronWing]

We had one moron in this thread yell at me that homeowners of a primary residence should be unhappy about their home values increasing!

To be fair, every homeowner should wish the value of their home to be as low as possible until they decide to sell it. I'd love the tax assessor to declare my house worthless.






TBH, I don't mind paying property taxes. They pay for schools and I don't like living around stupid people.

 

[K1052]

As a concept, yes of course that is the dynamic. But overall, the real issue is COL vs income/benefits.

The issue is when some on here go around saying things like that miniscule overall gain is the best wage increase in ages, it's completely tone-deaf. I'm just saying they are making the problem worse. This is what you are hearing from disaffected lower income Dems and Independents. Here are the Dems crowing bout Bidenomics but really, I'm barely ahead of where I was a few years ago, and that was shitty already. that is HOW TO LOSE AN ELECTION 101

Ultimately if the difference was where it should be, between COL and income/benefits, the average voter would not give a shit about some inflation overall. Sure they would not be happy, but if life was actually relatively fair, it's a non-issue.

I think I've already indicated that throwing the Bidenomics messaging on the trash heap would be a good idea and sooner the better. People are unhappy so that's what you've got to work with regardless if the US has had the best rebound out of COVID on the entire planet thanks to policy choices (and it empirically has). Start asking if they think Trump plus Republicans are going to lower their healthcare costs or not give trillions in handouts to the corporations that kept raising prices because they could.

Right now the roadmap to winning the election is to chain Trump to every unpopular policy utterance he's ever made, and there are a lot to choose from, and use cash cannons to put it in front of every living American's eyeballs from now till next November. Oh and desechedule weed sometime early next year to make the Rs complain about it.

 

[gothuevos]

It's just their uninformed way of saying they just want their income vs cost of living to be a better ratio.

Just get them actual real wage gains vs the COL and keep inflation normal and they will be very happy economically. Crowing about the wage gains of the last few years for the poors is just so fucking tone deaf and I don't blame them for not really liking the Dem party if that is what they hear.

Well the other problem is that nothing Trump has offered or even hinted at would result in deflation. But this tactic works on people who are hurting economically.

 

[manly]

Says the guy pretending they can eat their home value.

Keep quadrupling down on stupid. At least your economic bad takes aren't as morally bankrupt as your Gaza bombing policy.

To be fair, every homeowner should wish the value of their home to be as low as possible until they decide to sell it. I'd love the tax assessor to declare my house worthless.






TBH, I don't mind paying property taxes. They pay for schools and I don't like living around stupid people.

We're not referring to the Donald Trump school of tax avoidance. For tens of millions of American homeowners, home equity has shot up sharply since the Great Recession. Only a moron would say that's bad for the primary residence homeowners.

Note I'm not saying home price appreciation is always good. You certainly want to avoid the 2003-2006 fraud-induced bubble. And obviously people's rising net worth has not alleviated their anger over hot inflation over the past few years.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Keep quadrupling down on stupid. At least your economic bad takes aren't as morally bankrupt as your Gaza bombing policy.


We're not referring to the Donald Trump school of tax avoidance. For tens of millions of American homeowners, home equity has shot up sharply since the Great Recession. Only a moron would say that's bad for the primary residence homeowners.

Note I'm not saying home price appreciation is always good. You certainly want to avoid the 2003-2006 fraud-induced bubble. And obviously people's rising net worth has not alleviated their anger over hot inflation over the past few years.

but it's terrible for first-time home buyers and anyone looking to relocate. or even if you want to relocate, sure your house sells for way more, but your new mortgage is at 7%+ instead of <3%. Granted, the latter part is a math problem based on your net profit on the home sale vs. the cost of the new house and the size of the mortgage (but if every home inflates significantly, then your increased home value doesn't really get you as much in the end because your new house is also more expensive)

 

[VashHT]

but it's terrible for first-time home buyers and anyone looking to relocate. or even if you want to relocate, sure your house sells for way more, but your new mortgage is at 7%+ instead of <3%. Granted, the latter part is a math problem based on your net profit on the home sale vs. the cost of the new house and the size of the mortgage (but if every home inflates significantly, then your increased home value doesn't really get you as much in the end because your new house is also more expensive)

Yeah my friend is in this position, probably going to have to move due to work but he currently has a 2.25% mortgage. The increase in the value of his house doesn't mean anything because anywhere he's looking to buy the houses have gone up just as much as his has.

 

[manly]

but it's terrible for first-time home buyers and anyone looking to relocate. or even if you want to relocate, sure your house sells for way more, but your new mortgage is at 7%+ instead of <3%. Granted, the latter part is a math problem based on your net profit on the home sale vs. the cost of the new house and the size of the mortgage (but if every home inflates significantly, then your increased home value doesn't really get you as much in the end because your new house is also more expensive)

Correct, housing affordability is very poor right now due to a confluence of factors and it's brutal for first time shoppers. But as has been discussed many times in this forum, the market solution is we need a lot more supply built by developers (particularly entry level housing stock rather than higher end housing). For the reasons you cite and others, the housing market is kind of gridlocked right now with no solutions in sight.

But that doesn't explain why someone would say a homeowner's primary asset going up in value should make them feel bad. Homeowners felt wealthier when home equity grew from 2017-2021, but feel poorer now that it grew even more from 2021-2023?

 

[K1052]

But that doesn't explain why someone would say a homeowner's primary asset going up in value should make them feel bad. Homeowners felt wealthier when home equity grew from 2017-2021, but feel poorer now that it grew even more from 2021-2023?

At least when I lived in Texas this would happen when the property tax bill showed up.

 

[ivwshane]

Correct, housing affordability is very poor right now due to a confluence of factors and it's brutal for first time shoppers. But as has been discussed many times in this forum, the market solution is we need a lot more supply built by developers (particularly entry level housing stock rather than higher end housing). For the reasons you cite and others, the housing market is kind of gridlocked right now with no solutions in sight.

But that doesn't explain why someone would say a homeowner's primary asset going up in value should make them feel bad. Homeowners felt wealthier when home equity grew from 2017-2021, but feel poorer now that it grew even more from 2021-2023?

I’ve never felt richer or poor based on my homes value nor have I ever felt good or bad about its worth.

What I do feel good about is that I have a steady expense that is a way better deal than renting. That being said, I don’t wish renting was more expensive or cheaper just to feel better about myself. I wish renting was cheaper so less people would be struggling.

The value of my house means nothing to me unless I wanted to use it to purchase rental property or in order to buy better and rent out the old house.
Oh and for property tax purposes.

 

[dainthomas]

No. I don't think average consumers want deflation. What they want is better income equality and higher income and benefits relative to the cost of things.
Do you really think they want deflation? They just care of the cost of living. What they ultimately want is to be able to have a better QOL. Actual real substantial wage increases would do the trick. Nobody needs deflation.

Only one of the parties supports labor and increasing wages for everyone. If a particular voter isn't already aware of that, I don't know how dems would convince them.

 

[MrSquished]

Only one of the parties supports labor and increasing wages for everyone. If a particular voter isn't already aware of that, I don't know how dems would convince them.

Well there's this thing called politics. Be better at it.

 

[Brainonska511]

Yes, let's just "West Wing" it - someone will make some grand speech, and the intransigence and partisanship will just melt away.

 

[MrSquished]

Yes, let's just "West Wing" it - someone will make some grand speech, and the intransigence and partisanship will just melt away.

Are you responding to me?

If so I would have your dinner tested for crack. Because it's gibberish.

 

[hal2kilo]

I think I've already indicated that throwing the Bidenomics messaging on the trash heap would be a good idea and sooner the better. People are unhappy so that's what you've got to work with regardless if the US has had the best rebound out of COVID on the entire planet thanks to policy choices (and it empirically has). Start asking if they think Trump plus Republicans are going to lower their healthcare costs or not give trillions in handouts to the corporations that kept raising prices because they could.

Right now the roadmap to winning the election is to chain Trump to every unpopular policy utterance he's ever made, and there are a lot to choose from, and use cash cannons to put it in front of every living American's eyeballs from now till next November. Oh and desechedule weed sometime early next year to make the Rs complain about it.

I just don't get why people think this is Biden's fault. There's this other rest of the world that's dealing with inflation also, but not as well as this country.

 

[Jaskalas]

I just don't get why people think this is Biden's fault. There's this other rest of the world that's dealing with inflation also, but not as well as this country.

That message needs to reach people.
That it is a pandemic problem, a world problem, and not a Biden problem.

But the whole point of the Presidency is as a figure head. Someone responsible. Someone to blame. Blaming him is FAR easier than the actual truth. Giving Republican propagandists an edge.