Best time to buy a house

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Sinsear

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2007
6,439
80
91
Originally posted by: Skoorb

Pardon me butting in on your personal life - but WTF are you doing buying a 310K house w/ 78K in income???

Depending on other things like student loans, car situation, and likes, plus of course property taxes, it could be either an egregious or prudent move. It's hard to say, really, but a person with no other debt and low property taxes could very easily cover a 310k house on that income.

thanks; no student loans (army paid em off); I own my car outright; less than 1k credit card debt; putting 20% down on the house (saved a bunch of cash up for this very reason while I was in the military); I have a recession proof job (no layoff clause as well), with guaranteed raises over the next 7 years. I get a nice property tax reduction due to being a vet as well. It's going to be very manageable, thank you.

 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

I agree that 4.5% is a very attractive rate. But if you finance X dollars at 4.5% and the property plummets in value to X/2 in the next couple of years, you're not going to be very happy with your purchase.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: Sinsear
Originally posted by: Skoorb

Pardon me butting in on your personal life - but WTF are you doing buying a 310K house w/ 78K in income???

Depending on other things like student loans, car situation, and likes, plus of course property taxes, it could be either an egregious or prudent move. It's hard to say, really, but a person with no other debt and low property taxes could very easily cover a 310k house on that income.

thanks; no student loans (army paid em off); I own my car outright; less than 1k credit card debt; putting 20% down on the house (saved a bunch of cash up for this very reason while I was in the military); I have a recession proof job (no layoff clause as well), with guaranteed raises over the next 7 years. I get a nice property tax reduction due to being a vet as well. It's going to be very manageable, thank you.
Damn, how do you get a no layoff clause?!
I agree that 4.5% is a very attractive rate. But if you finance X dollars at 4.5% and the property plummets in value to X/2 in the next couple of years, you're not going to be very happy with your purchase.
If it goes up and/or inflation gets bad he'll be sitting pretty, though ;)
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
Originally posted by: shira
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

I agree that 4.5% is a very attractive rate. But if you finance X dollars at 4.5% and the property plummets in value to X/2 in the next couple of years, you're not going to be very happy with your purchase.

Why? Mortgage interest is a very nice writeoff, and owning your own home is great in general.

Prices are leveling off. We will see some more decreases as short-sales screw up your home's value temporarily, but if you arent trying to sell or refinance, it doesnt really matter.

These rates wont be this low for very long. I am surprised it isnt getting more play in the media. I have more refinances to process right now than I know what to do with. I will be here until 8:30 tonight :(
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

Points?
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: shira
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

I agree that 4.5% is a very attractive rate. But if you finance X dollars at 4.5% and the property plummets in value to X/2 in the next couple of years, you're not going to be very happy with your purchase.

Why? Mortgage interest is a very nice writeoff, and owning your own home is great in general.

Prices are leveling off. We will see some more decreases as short-sales screw up your home's value temporarily, but if you arent trying to sell or refinance, it doesnt really matter.

These rates wont be this low for very long. I am surprised it isnt getting more play in the media. I have more refinances to process right now than I know what to do with. I will be here until 8:30 tonight :(

I expect them to continue going down well into next year. The spread between Treasuries and MBS' is freakin' huge right now.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
Originally posted by: alchemize

Pardon me butting in on your personal life - but WTF are you doing buying a 310K house w/ 78K in income???


What is the problem here?

20% down = $248000 loan amount. Payment at even 5.5% on a 30 year fixed = 1408.12


Taxes estimated = 322.92

Estimated insurance = 90.42


Total PITI = 1861.46.

Gross monthly income = 6500

1861.46/6500 = 28% DTI. Add a car, CC, he will be well under 55% which is the max for Fannie Mae.

That is a great situation to be in.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,486
0
0
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: alchemize

Pardon me butting in on your personal life - but WTF are you doing buying a 310K house w/ 78K in income???


What is the problem here?

20% down = $248000 loan amount. Payment at even 5.5% on a 30 year fixed = 1408.12


Taxes estimated = 322.92

Estimated insurance = 90.42


Total PITI = 1861.46.

Gross monthly income = 6500

1861.46/6500 = 28% DTI. Add a car, CC, he will be well under 55% which is the max for Fannie Mae.

That is a great situation to be in.
I guess I'm old school - 2.5 - 3.0 x your salary = max house you should buy.

 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: alchemize
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: alchemize

Pardon me butting in on your personal life - but WTF are you doing buying a 310K house w/ 78K in income???


What is the problem here?

20% down = $248000 loan amount. Payment at even 5.5% on a 30 year fixed = 1408.12


Taxes estimated = 322.92

Estimated insurance = 90.42


Total PITI = 1861.46.

Gross monthly income = 6500

1861.46/6500 = 28% DTI. Add a car, CC, he will be well under 55% which is the max for Fannie Mae.

That is a great situation to be in.
I guess I'm old school - 2.5 - 3.0 x your salary = max house you should buy.

Old school figures much higher interest rates.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
Prices are leveling off. We will see some more decreases as short-sales screw up your home's value temporarily, but if you arent trying to sell or refinance, it doesnt really matter.
I assume you live in "the" OC. Prices are no where near bottom in SoCal, as this was the epicenter of the housing bubble Kool-Aide.

Condos, townhomes and less desireable areas are starting to stabilize, but once the option ARMs start resetting next week, you will see move-up neighborhoods and even beach cities take a hit. Single family homes will drop another 10-20% in 2009...not to mention all the median income suburban households who tapped into phantom home equity to project an image of wealth...yeah, the bank will be taking all of that back pretty soon.

Now is not a good time to be a seller in SoCal, and for buyers, the bottom hasn't hit yet.

 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: shira
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

I agree that 4.5% is a very attractive rate. But if you finance X dollars at 4.5% and the property plummets in value to X/2 in the next couple of years, you're not going to be very happy with your purchase.

Why? Mortgage interest is a very nice writeoff, and owning your own home is great in general.

Prices are leveling off. We will see some more decreases as short-sales screw up your home's value temporarily, but if you arent trying to sell or refinance, it doesnt really matter.

These rates wont be this low for very long. I am surprised it isnt getting more play in the media. I have more refinances to process right now than I know what to do with. I will be here until 8:30 tonight :(

Everyone needs a place to live, but there's no intrinsic advantage to owning as opposed to renting. If property values go down another 50%, current homeowners are going to lose an aggregate of $10 trillion. Renters won't lose a penny.

In a period of steadily increasing home prices, owning is an advantage, especially since the cost of owning is subsidized by the government by way of deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes. But the loss of equity the past couple of years has dwarfed any tax advantages of owning.

Meanwhile, all of the so-called "experts" are just guessing on where the economy in general and home prices in particular are headed. Just remember that no financial expert alive today has EVER experienced economic conditions remotely like what we're currently seeing. On that basis, how can they say "home prices are leveling off?" Really? BS! They're guessing just like everyone else.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
Originally posted by: shira
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: shira
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

I agree that 4.5% is a very attractive rate. But if you finance X dollars at 4.5% and the property plummets in value to X/2 in the next couple of years, you're not going to be very happy with your purchase.

Why? Mortgage interest is a very nice writeoff, and owning your own home is great in general.

Prices are leveling off. We will see some more decreases as short-sales screw up your home's value temporarily, but if you arent trying to sell or refinance, it doesnt really matter.

These rates wont be this low for very long. I am surprised it isnt getting more play in the media. I have more refinances to process right now than I know what to do with. I will be here until 8:30 tonight :(

Everyone needs a place to live, but there's no intrinsic advantage to owning as opposed to renting. If property values go down another 50%, current homeowners are going to lose an aggregate of $10 trillion. Renters won't lose a penny.

In a period of steadily increasing home prices, owning is an advantage, especially since the cost of owning is subsidized by the government by way of deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes. But the loss of equity the past couple of years has dwarfed any tax advantages of owning.

Meanwhile, all of the so-called "experts" are just guessing on where the economy in general and home prices in particular are headed. Just remember that no financial expert alive today has EVER experienced economic conditions remotely like what we're currently seeing. On that basis, how can they say "home prices are leveling off?" Really? BS! They're guessing just like everyone else.


If I bought a house in 2000 for 100K, and it went up to $600K value in 2006, then dropped down to 300K by 2010, how did all that "lost" equity hurt me? Yes, the buyers who bought over-priced homes are now upside down, but as long as they can really afford the payment and arent trying to sell, who cares if you are upside down?

Of course everyone is "guessing", but I am guessing from the side that sees the appraisals everyday. If anyone could tell you exactly, then good for them. But after massive losses in value earlier this year, I am seeing appraisals on the same house 6 months later with nearly the same value.

By leveling I meant not sharply decreasing anymore, becoming more stable. The only time I see huge drop in value anymore is when a short-sale takes place. Those used to not count towards your home's value because it was a outlier. But now, if you nieghbor shortsales, he just screwed you if you are trying to sell or refinance for at least 6 months.

Oh, and renting V owning? Come on. Besides mortgage interest writeoffs....not having a landlord? Not having a shitty studio? There is no comparison.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: Ocguy31

Oh, and renting V owning? Come on. Besides mortgage interest writeoffs....not having a landlord? Not having a shitty studio? There is no comparison.

Not having to fix the roof. Not being tied down to a location in case of a job transfer/relocation/etc..

The difference between now and 2000 is that prices were on an upward trajectory then, while right now it is clearly downward. With the recession starting to turn full tilt combined with the second wave of mortgage resets coming, expect more downward pressure in the near future.
 

Corn

Diamond Member
Nov 12, 1999
6,390
29
91
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

Points?

Not only that, but if these are his own personal mortgages he's talking about, I must assume that one of these is for an investment property. If that's the case either he's full of crap or he's commiting fraud, no one is giving those rates for NOO properties, even with significant buy downs.
 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
0
Last month there were like 200 bank owned homes in the area. Now there are 2.

What the hell gives? These homes were empty too. I doubt they sold them all
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: shira
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: shira
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

I agree that 4.5% is a very attractive rate. But if you finance X dollars at 4.5% and the property plummets in value to X/2 in the next couple of years, you're not going to be very happy with your purchase.

Why? Mortgage interest is a very nice writeoff, and owning your own home is great in general.

Prices are leveling off. We will see some more decreases as short-sales screw up your home's value temporarily, but if you arent trying to sell or refinance, it doesnt really matter.

These rates wont be this low for very long. I am surprised it isnt getting more play in the media. I have more refinances to process right now than I know what to do with. I will be here until 8:30 tonight :(

Everyone needs a place to live, but there's no intrinsic advantage to owning as opposed to renting. If property values go down another 50%, current homeowners are going to lose an aggregate of $10 trillion. Renters won't lose a penny.

In a period of steadily increasing home prices, owning is an advantage, especially since the cost of owning is subsidized by the government by way of deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes. But the loss of equity the past couple of years has dwarfed any tax advantages of owning.

Meanwhile, all of the so-called "experts" are just guessing on where the economy in general and home prices in particular are headed. Just remember that no financial expert alive today has EVER experienced economic conditions remotely like what we're currently seeing. On that basis, how can they say "home prices are leveling off?" Really? BS! They're guessing just like everyone else.


If I bought a house in 2000 for 100K, and it went up to $600K value in 2006, then dropped down to 300K by 2010, how did all that "lost" equity hurt me? Yes, the buyers who bought over-priced homes are now upside down, but as long as they can really afford the payment and arent trying to sell, who cares if you are upside down?

Of course everyone is "guessing", but I am guessing from the side that sees the appraisals everyday. If anyone could tell you exactly, then good for them. But after massive losses in value earlier this year, I am seeing appraisals on the same house 6 months later with nearly the same value.

By leveling I meant not sharply decreasing anymore, becoming more stable. The only time I see huge drop in value anymore is when a short-sale takes place. Those used to not count towards your home's value because it was a outlier. But now, if you nieghbor shortsales, he just screwed you if you are trying to sell or refinance for at least 6 months.

Oh, and renting V owning? Come on. Besides mortgage interest writeoffs....not having a landlord? Not having a shitty studio? There is no comparison.
Who cares? Everyone who's upside down in their house cares. For one thing, those homeowners may be trapped in their home. They can't get out of the place without ruining their credit rating, and they may HAVE to move to find another job.

And everyone who's lost $300k in net worth because of lost equity cares. They might have been planning on using that equity to help fund their retirement, or to fund their children's college educations, or for a car purchase, or . . . . If you think this is "funny money" you're thinking is pretty skewed. Of course, I get the sense you're a mortgage broker, so it's pretty clear why your vested interest is biasing your view of home-ownership.

By your reasoning, people who've lost 40% in the stock market the past couple of years shouldn't care, either. Because it's just a "paper loss." But that's nonsense. It - like lost home equity - is a REAL loss of wealth. A loss of wealth that has completely changed people's views on purchases. It's one of the major reasons retail sales are in the toilet, which in turn is the major reason for layoffs and skyrocketing unemployment. Who care? Anyone with half a brain.

People should buy a house rather than rent if it makes economic sense to do so. In today's housing market, anyone buying a house is taking a gamble UNLESS they KNOW they'll live there for many years to come. And even then, it might be smarter to put their down-payment cash into some safe haven for the next two years, rent, and then buy when housing prices are down another 25%.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
Originally posted by: Corn
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

Points?

Not only that, but if these are his own personal mortgages he's talking about, I must assume that one of these is for an investment property. If that's the case either he's full of crap or he's commiting fraud, no one is giving those rates for NOO properties, even with significant buy downs.


No, they arent my own mortgages.

And the "points" or origination fee are determined by the Loan Officer, not me. (I actually get the loans done. Loan Officers are tools!!!) I make a flat fee that is standard on any mortgage. (Processor)

We usually pay the closing costs, but you get a better rate if you pay them yourself.

When someone says you are getting a no-cost loan, they are raising your rate to pay your closing costs, and making you feel all fuzzy inside.

 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: Corn
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I just funded a 4.625% 30 year fixed 10 minutes ago, and locked one at 4.5% yesterday. It is an AMAZING time to purchase/refinance if you are a prime borrower.

Points?

Not only that, but if these are his own personal mortgages he's talking about, I must assume that one of these is for an investment property. If that's the case either he's full of crap or he's commiting fraud, no one is giving those rates for NOO properties, even with significant buy downs.


No, they arent my own mortgages.

And the "points" or origination fee are determined by the Loan Officer, not me. (I actually get the loans done. Loan Officers are tools!!!) I make a flat fee that is standard on any mortgage. (Processor)

We usually pay the closing costs, but you get a better rate if you pay them yourself.

When someone says you are getting a no-cost loan, they are raising your rate to pay your closing costs, and making you feel all fuzzy inside.

Heh. Without loan officers, you wouldn't have any files to process. :)

<- Currently working as processor for loan workouts, but was loan officer for many years.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
600% appreciation in six years? Where do live OCguy? Is that like South Florida or something?
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
Originally posted by: Zebo
600% appreciation in six years? Where do live OCguy? Is that like South Florida or something?

Was just an example there Zebo ;)
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
I bought a house in 2000 for 100K, and it went up to $600K value in 2006, then dropped down to 300K by 2010, how did all that "lost" equity hurt me?
Equity only exists if you can sell the home for the esitmated value.

So from 2000 to 2006, your home appreciated $500k in phantom equity...if you tapped into that phantom equity like a personal ATM machine, and the value of your home drops down to $300k such that you owe more than its worth...well you are in a world of hurt and on the fast track to foreclosure.

Sounds like you were responsible...most in SoCal were not.
 

BarneyFife

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2001
3,875
0
76
Wait. I had people telling me to buy a house in 2007. I had people telling me to buy a house last summer. Guess what? The prices are still dropping.