Originally posted by: Schmide
Asus 4870 $135
Wow... that is an incredible deal for an 815MHz factory oc card.
OP, I ran an overclocked/overvolted Phenom as well as a very power-hungry Radeon 2900 Pro (512 bit version) @ 800MHz/1600MHz with all the usual stuff (couple hard drives, fans, fan controller, some lights, optical drive) on a good
quality 500 watt power supply (Antec NeoPower)for quite a while without any problems. I'm not sure how good of quality your 430 watt supply is, but I'm pretty sure the Earthwatts are fairly stout from what I've seen people post here. I don't believe the E8400 is a big power hog (I think it's quite efficient until you start overclocking, then who knows) so I'd venture a guess that you'd be able to run that 4870 on your power supply.
http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3501&p=9
AT is running a 4870 1GB there with a i7 965 (quad core, I would imagine a higher power using chip than the E8400) and at load manage to stay under 300 watts. The factory overclocked Asus linked above will probably use a bit more power as it has the 65MHz overclock, but as I said, I think you'd be ok.
I know a lot of people like to stay at about 50% of their power supply's usage for piece of mind, but I think you'd be ok.
*edit - Just saw that you mentioned $125 budget, the 4870 for only $10 more is really a great deal, but if that is a hard budget with no wiggle room, then I'd go with the previous suggestions of the GTS250 or 4850... which ever you can find the better deal on.