Bernanke: Fed ready to cut interest rates again

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
65,418
13,737
146
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22592939/from/RSS/
(some snips from the article...any bolding & underlining is mine)


WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged Thursday to slash interest rates as needed to prevent housing and credit problems from plunging the country into a recession.

Bernanke showed his hand in terms of the Fed?s likely next move amid mounting concerns that the economy may be in danger.

Many economists now believe the Fed will slice its key interest rate by a bold one-half of a percentage point when the Fed meets next Jan. 29-30. Some, however, think the Fed will go with a more modest one-quarter point reduction, given concerns that high energy prices could spark inflation.

Wall Street was buoyed by Bernanke?s words. The Dow Jones jumped 117.78 points to close at 12,853.09.

?The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession,? Bernanke said, fielding questions after his speech. It is, however, ?forecasting slow growth,? he said.

Worries about the country?s economic health have gripped voters, galvanized presidential candidates and spurred the White House and Congress to explore ways to stimulate the economy to avoid a recession. The White House is considering a tax cut.

Hiring practically ground to a halt in December, pushing the unemployment rate up to 5 percent, a two-year high, the government said in a report last week that rattled Wall Street and Main Street.

Bernanke, in a speech to a housing and economic forum in Washington, cautioned against reading too much into one report. But he said that if employment conditions were to continue to deteriorate, that would raise risks to the economy. The big worry is that consumers might cut back on their spending, sending the economy into a tailspin.

Many analysts predict upcoming reports will show the economy grew at a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will be weak in the first three months of this year as consumers ? major shapers of overall economic activity ? tighten their belts. Major retailers reported Thursday weak sales for December, raising uncertainty about the economy?s outlook.

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who ran the Fed for 18 1/2 years, recently warned that the economy is ?getting close to stall speed.? Some economists said the odds of a recession are up to 50 percent.



The artlcle is 2 pages on MSNBC.com.
It's about time Bernake did something substantial to forestall the impending recession. I know many people here deny one is looming, but those of us "in the trenches" see the signs every day. High unemployment (may be regional) homes standing empty because of the collapse of the housing bubble/credit crunch, construction sites shut down, land development companies going out of business, crappy sales numbers posted for the holiday season, etc...all indicate that the economy is in trouble. I spoke to the dispatcher of my union during the summer and was told that no one there had seen the work picture look so bad in over 20 years. As I drive around, I see construction projects boarded up and abandoned, one of my college adjunct instructors was a city planner/architect for a land development company that had been in business for over 50 years. They closed their doors in December because no one can afford to buy homes...Prices are still high, even though many sit empty, and getting credit is often difficult,if not impossible, especially with less than sterling credit.
I really hope Bernake doesn't try to be TOO conservative in his actions. It's past time for that, it's time to get aggressive in trying to heal the economy.
Like we heard in the 1992 presidential campaign, "It IS the economy, Stupid!"
 

NoStateofMind

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,711
6
76
I'm getting the feeling they have to cut interest rates to divert having a recession. Why do they have to? The feeling I get is they think having a recession will crash the economy. Hell I could be wrong but theres something not being said here.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
I'm getting the feeling they have to cut interest rates to divert having a recession. Why do they have to? The feeling I get is they think having a recession will crash the economy. Hell I could be wrong but theres something not being said here.

For 30 years asset backed commercial paper traded at Libor + 0% margin. In August, such a disruption happened, that that margin was at Libor + .60%. If you consider that the ABCP market had 1.2 Trillion in debt outstanding, that's a huge movement. In December, that spread went to L + 1.5%. Again, in 4 months the market flipped. No banks, regardless of letters of credit, could finance commercial paper longer than 1-day, when traditionally they could finance it for 90+ days. Nobody wanted to take risk.

Investors were flush with money, but nobody spent it. Even generic bonds, such as FFELP SLABS couldn't price accurately. You are talking about the single biggest debt market disruption in history, period.

What do you think would happen if more liquidity wasn't pumped into the economy? I, for one, am an advocate of not inflating our way out of this problem. However, it's not as simple as that. If the Fed did not take these actions inflation would be the least of our concerns.
 

NoStateofMind

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,711
6
76
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
I'm getting the feeling they have to cut interest rates to divert having a recession. Why do they have to? The feeling I get is they think having a recession will crash the economy. Hell I could be wrong but theres something not being said here.

For 30 years asset backed commercial paper traded at Libor + 0% margin. In August, such a disruption happened, that that margin was at Libor + .60%. If you consider that the ABCP market had 1.2 Trillion in debt outstanding, that's a huge movement. In December, that spread went to L + 1.5%. Again, in 4 months the market flipped. No banks, regardless of letters of credit, could finance commercial paper longer than 1-day, when traditionally they could finance it for 90+ days. Nobody wanted to take risk.

Investors were flush with money, but nobody spent it. Even generic bonds, such as FFELP SLABS couldn't price accurately. You are talking about the single biggest debt market disruption in history, period.

What do you think would happen if more liquidity wasn't pumped into the economy? I, for one, am an advocate of not inflating our way out of this problem. However, it's not as simple as that. If the Fed did not take these actions inflation would be the least of our concerns.

I have to tell you, reading your explanation is like gibberish to me. But what I fear most is hyperinflation as seen in the early 1900's Germany.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
I'm getting the feeling they have to cut interest rates to divert having a recession. Why do they have to? The feeling I get is they think having a recession will crash the economy. Hell I could be wrong but theres something not being said here.

For 30 years asset backed commercial paper traded at Libor + 0% margin. In August, such a disruption happened, that that margin was at Libor + .60%. If you consider that the ABCP market had 1.2 Trillion in debt outstanding, that's a huge movement. In December, that spread went to L + 1.5%. Again, in 4 months the market flipped. No banks, regardless of letters of credit, could finance commercial paper longer than 1-day, when traditionally they could finance it for 90+ days. Nobody wanted to take risk.

Investors were flush with money, but nobody spent it. Even generic bonds, such as FFELP SLABS couldn't price accurately. You are talking about the single biggest debt market disruption in history, period.

What do you think would happen if more liquidity wasn't pumped into the economy? I, for one, am an advocate of not inflating our way out of this problem. However, it's not as simple as that. If the Fed did not take these actions inflation would be the least of our concerns.


I have to tell you, reading your explanation is like gibberish to me. But what I fear most is hyperinflation as seen in the early 1900's Germany.

I didn't want to make it seem as that. Essentially, LIBOR is England's version of the Fed Funds Rate. Back in August commercial paper, which funds 1.2 trillion in assets, went from Libor, say 5%, to 5.6%. If you take 1.2tr and suddenly add .60% to it, that means that overnight people had to pay 600 million dollars to fund assets per month.

Imagine somebody saying that overnight your house interest rate went up .6%, for no reason. during december your mortgage would have increased 1.2%.

It's a massive cost to the economy, all because there was no liquidity. That's why the Fed needs to have the ability to flood the market with liquidity, otherwise the market would have frozen.

That cost is passed on to consumers. Do you understand now how important it is to have a central bank that can have the ability to unfreeze the markets?
 

smack Down

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2005
4,507
0
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
I'm getting the feeling they have to cut interest rates to divert having a recession. Why do they have to? The feeling I get is they think having a recession will crash the economy. Hell I could be wrong but theres something not being said here.

For 30 years asset backed commercial paper traded at Libor + 0% margin. In August, such a disruption happened, that that margin was at Libor + .60%. If you consider that the ABCP market had 1.2 Trillion in debt outstanding, that's a huge movement. In December, that spread went to L + 1.5%. Again, in 4 months the market flipped. No banks, regardless of letters of credit, could finance commercial paper longer than 1-day, when traditionally they could finance it for 90+ days. Nobody wanted to take risk.

Investors were flush with money, but nobody spent it. Even generic bonds, such as FFELP SLABS couldn't price accurately. You are talking about the single biggest debt market disruption in history, period.

What do you think would happen if more liquidity wasn't pumped into the economy? I, for one, am an advocate of not inflating our way out of this problem. However, it's not as simple as that. If the Fed did not take these actions inflation would be the least of our concerns.

You got to love all the free market people. Hey can we get the fed to give away some gas I think the price went up a few cents today.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
I'm getting the feeling they have to cut interest rates to divert having a recession. Why do they have to? The feeling I get is they think having a recession will crash the economy. Hell I could be wrong but theres something not being said here.

For 30 years asset backed commercial paper traded at Libor + 0% margin. In August, such a disruption happened, that that margin was at Libor + .60%. If you consider that the ABCP market had 1.2 Trillion in debt outstanding, that's a huge movement. In December, that spread went to L + 1.5%. Again, in 4 months the market flipped. No banks, regardless of letters of credit, could finance commercial paper longer than 1-day, when traditionally they could finance it for 90+ days. Nobody wanted to take risk.

Investors were flush with money, but nobody spent it. Even generic bonds, such as FFELP SLABS couldn't price accurately. You are talking about the single biggest debt market disruption in history, period.

What do you think would happen if more liquidity wasn't pumped into the economy? I, for one, am an advocate of not inflating our way out of this problem. However, it's not as simple as that. If the Fed did not take these actions inflation would be the least of our concerns.

You got to love all the free market people. Hey can we get the fed to give away some gas I think the price went up a few cents today.

I am as free market as they get, but what people don't understand is that there's a reason why free markets, completely free, can be just as bad, or worse than controlled ones. There's a reason why our "free" market is the best place in the world to invest. It's not because we return more, but because we make sure that things happen orderly.

I am the last person that believes that banks should be bailed out and I am as big as a financial darwinist that exists. However, the disruption that would happen would be swift and shocking and something which would cause many more problems than this solution.

I don't like what has happened in the last 5 years, anybody who knows me knows that. But one thing is for certain, if it was allowed to collapse instantly it would be far worse.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
In some ways the steering wheel the Fed has is very small compared to the size of what its trying to steer. But when the economy flounders, the answer is always to cut interest rates.
The danger is always there. What if they keep cutting interest rates to zero and the economy still flounders? In which case there is no steering wheel at all. Which happened in the great depression and may happen again.

Listening to Greenspan's reasoning, its all smoke and mirrors hokum anyway. And Greenpsn may have gotten out before the bottom dropped out. Three point trillion dollars of added debt does tend to require some tall fixing, as does a systemic trade deficit, as does rapidly rising oil prices, two very costly military occupations, and then the collapse of mortgage markets adds another burden.

Economic may be a science but its a social science. And if the American consumer quits spending, all the economic gurus can do is take note of a descent into full blown recession.
 

Jadow

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2003
5,962
2
0
What I don't get. If they're ultimately going to cut 1.5 to 1.75% why F around and do .25 here, .50 there. Go ahead and lower it .75 or 1% and get it over with!
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Jadow
What I don't get. If they're ultimately going to cut 1.5 to 1.75% why F around and do .25 here, .50 there. Go ahead and lower it .75 or 1% and get it over with!

Because lowering all at once can be just as bad as doing nothing. An orderly release of the bubble is needed.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Inflation for things you need (food, energy), deflation for the things you want (TVs, cars, houses).

THis is looking more and more like Japan in the 90s every day, the workers got the shaft in that one.

 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
I'm having a hard time understanding how a central bank lowering interest rates is supposed to be indicative and/or damning of a free market system.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Vic
I'm having a hard time understanding how a central bank lowering interest rates is supposed to be indicative and/or damning of a free market system.

technically, a rate cut does absorb some of their mistakes, especially if the Fed takes in lesser collateral on a repo basis rather than just govt bonds.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
I think we should get it over with. Our avarice and impulsivity has to be paid in full and it's time to pay some of it.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I think we should get it over with. Our avarice and impulsivity has to be paid in full and it's time to pay some of it.

Yeah, that's a great idea...

Christ, sometimes I wonder how some people get past high school.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I think we should get it over with. Our avarice and impulsivity has to be paid in full and it's time to pay some of it.

Yeah, that's a great idea...

Christ, sometimes I wonder how some people get past high school.
You just don't like tough love. Sometimes it's for the best. The lessons best learned are those that hurt the most.

 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I think we should get it over with. Our avarice and impulsivity has to be paid in full and it's time to pay some of it.

Yeah, that's a great idea...

Christ, sometimes I wonder how some people get past high school.
You just don't like tough love. Sometimes it's for the best. The lessons best learned are those that hurt the most.

Are you really that ignorant?

Do you realize what would happen? Tough love? WTF is wrong with you?


This isn't just about banks, or mortgages. Melting down the entire market in chaos, even if it's only for a year, is foolish. Nobody would touch our financial markets for a decade because they'd think we were morons.

I love how people like to play armchair financial expert with something they have no fucking clue about.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I think we should get it over with. Our avarice and impulsivity has to be paid in full and it's time to pay some of it.

Yeah, that's a great idea...

Christ, sometimes I wonder how some people get past high school.
You just don't like tough love. Sometimes it's for the best. The lessons best learned are those that hurt the most.

Are you really that ignorant?

Do you realize what would happen? Tough love? WTF is wrong with you?


This isn't just about banks, or mortgages. Melting down the entire market in chaos, even if it's only for a year, is foolish. Nobody would touch our financial markets for a decade because they'd think we were morons.

I love how people like to play armchair financial expert with something they have no fucking clue about.
Somebody's on the rag, yikes, look out everyone!!
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I think we should get it over with. Our avarice and impulsivity has to be paid in full and it's time to pay some of it.

Yeah, that's a great idea...

Christ, sometimes I wonder how some people get past high school.
You just don't like tough love. Sometimes it's for the best. The lessons best learned are those that hurt the most.

Are you really that ignorant?

Do you realize what would happen? Tough love? WTF is wrong with you?


This isn't just about banks, or mortgages. Melting down the entire market in chaos, even if it's only for a year, is foolish. Nobody would touch our financial markets for a decade because they'd think we were morons.

I love how people like to play armchair financial expert with something they have no fucking clue about.
Somebody's on the rag, yikes, look out everyone!!

Ohh snap! Nice one! Somebody's on the dipshit, everybody run! Some days I wonder if eugenics is the way to go, thanks for proving it right today!

Come back when you know anything about finance, I'll be waiting.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I think we should get it over with. Our avarice and impulsivity has to be paid in full and it's time to pay some of it.

Yeah, that's a great idea...

Christ, sometimes I wonder how some people get past high school.
You just don't like tough love. Sometimes it's for the best. The lessons best learned are those that hurt the most.

Are you really that ignorant?

Do you realize what would happen? Tough love? WTF is wrong with you?


This isn't just about banks, or mortgages. Melting down the entire market in chaos, even if it's only for a year, is foolish. Nobody would touch our financial markets for a decade because they'd think we were morons.

I love how people like to play armchair financial expert with something they have no fucking clue about.
Somebody's on the rag, yikes, look out everyone!!

Ohh snap! Nice one! Somebody's on the dipshit, everybody run! Some days I wonder if eugenics is the way to go, thanks for proving it right today!

Come back when you know anything about finance, I'll be waiting.
At least you got in that quick edit to make your come back even better than it was with the first version of your response. :thumbsup:

 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
65,418
13,737
146
Originally posted by: 1prophet
Would the Fed be acting this way if it was after the election?

Didn't you read the article?

Will the upcoming presidential elections color the Fed?s decisions on interest rates? Bernanke offered a flat no. ?Political considerations will play no role. We will be objective. We will be analytical, and we will do what is right for the economy.?


Hey, anyone wanna buy a bridge? :p
 

GrGr

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2003
3,204
0
76
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Originally posted by: 1prophet
Would the Fed be acting this way if it was after the election?

Didn't you read the article?

Will the upcoming presidential elections color the Fed?s decisions on interest rates? Bernanke offered a flat no. ?Political considerations will play no role. We will be objective. We will be analytical, and we will do what is right for the economy.?


Hey, anyone wanna buy a bridge? :p

Hehehe :D