Be Forewarned

[sportage]

Be forewarned.
In the next few days, and a week or two following, Donald's poll numbers are going to skyrocket.
But everybody stay calm, don't freak out.

Trump will pick his VP very soon, and that will give Donald's numbers a huge boost.
And he will have his convention consisting of bashing Hillary, building a wall, and dismantling Obamacare.
And that too will give Donald's numbers still another huge boost.

For many, and with Trump's great poll number repeated over and over by the news media for several days in a row, for many it will seem all is lost.
It will seem Trump is destine to win and Hillary destine to lose.
However, as dreaded as this good news for Trump may appear, it will be short lived.

So everybody just keep calm, take a breath, force yourself off political TV for a day or two, and always remember...
Tomorrow is another day.
Every cloud has a silver lining.
Yea, though you walk through the valley of the shadow of death, fear no evil.
For mass insanity is typically short lived. And eventually, hopefully by November, people return to their senses.
And last but not least, Canada welcomes you with open arms, if it comes down to that.

So, Keep an upper lip. Smile. Relax. Take everything in perspective.
Accept the shocking news of that Donald Trump surge with a grain of salt.
No jumping off bridges. No alcohol bingeing. No needles. No drugs. And definitely keep all guns safely locked away.
And no kicking the dog or taking it out on the little woman.
We get through this if we stick together. Lets do stick together.

 

[shortylickens]

i wish i had a little woman.


Or a big woman.


Actually I prefer a big woman if I have the option.
Like Julie Strain.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

At least it will give the Donald something else to talk about on the stump. Hasn't really been able to mention those polls in a long time. He's almost had to address actual policy without them.

 

[dullard]

You are correct that convention bounces exist and are short lived on both sides of the aisle. The poll changes over the ~two weeks during and after conventions are often not reflective of actual permanent changes. The gala, celebrations, and media's laser focus on just one side are all ephemeral.

That said, if there is any small bump from the Sander's endorsement over the next two days, that could likely be permanent.

 

[Jhhnn]

Trump/Gingrich 2016. It'd be a second rate ticket of first rate assholes.

 

[ivwshane]

Trump/Gingrich 2016. It'd be a second rate ticket of first rate assholes.

I think a trump/Gingrich ticket would be hilarious. All those people voting for trump to fix a corrupt government would be electing a con man and one of the guys who was the architect of the broken government we have now.

 

[fskimospy]

You are correct that convention bounces exist and are short lived on both sides of the aisle. The poll changes over the ~two weeks during and after conventions are often not reflective of actual permanent changes. The gala, celebrations, and media's laser focus on just one side are all ephemeral.

That said, if there is any small bump from the Sander's endorsement over the next two days, that could likely be permanent.

It would seem fairly likely that as the election goes on the percentage of Sanders supporters that say they won't vote for Clinton will continue to decrease and so a small but permanent improvement in Hillary's baseline numbers is to be expected.

You are totally right though that convention bounces for both candidates are routine and are probably not particularly meaningful. I still anticipate numerous threads on this topic, haha. I wouldn't be surprised if Sp33Demon makes his return to brag about Trump's polls again after having mysteriously disappeared when his numbers tanked.

 

[theeedude]

I think Trump has a ceiling of 45%.

 

[Subyman]

Hillary will announce VP pick after the GOP convention. That will take the wind out of his sails, then the Dem convention starts shortly after. Nothing matters until we see these two debate. I can't wait.

 

[Mursilis]

For many, and with Trump's great poll number repeated over and over by the news media for several days in a row, for many it will seem all is lost.
It will seem Trump is destine to win and Hillary destine to lose.

Seriously?!?

Trump's going to get mondaled (or at least dukakised) in November.

 

[spacejamz]

another liberal circle jerk thread...hope the OP brought enough lube.

 

[Jhhnn]

Hillary will announce VP pick after the GOP convention. That will take the wind out of his sails, then the Dem convention starts shortly after. Nothing matters until we see these two debate. I can't wait.

Oh, yeh. Bring it.

 

[umbrella39]

another liberal circle jerk thread...hope the OP brought enough lube.

Reality has a far left leaning liberal bias to the buttsore conservatives who are hoarding all the lube for November...

 

[Moonbeam]

Look into my eyes......you're getting sleepy.....count backwards from 10 to 1, feel yourself relaxing deeply.........nine eight ssssssssssssssvvvvvvvvvvvvvveeeeeeeeeeennnnnnnn sssssssssssssiiiiiiiii...............

 

[Thump553]

I doubt the VP pick will give him much of a bounce (especially if he picks the newt) but I'm wondering how many people will be bamboozled by his new I'm the Law And Order Candidate tact to reinvent himself yet again.

A narrowing of the spread is pretty normal between now and the election. Based on the current polls it would be a near historic blowout.

 

[spacejamz]

Reality has a far left leaning liberal bias to the buttsore conservatives who are hoarding all the lube for November...

probably won't be enough to hoard given the number of Trump threads opened by lefties here...

 

[piasabird]

Waiting till the end of October.

 

[piasabird]

So when is the Trump Hillary debate?

 

[WHAMPOM]

Be forewarned.
In the next few days, and a week or two following, Donald's poll numbers are going to skyrocket.
But everybody stay calm, don't freak out.

Trump will pick his VP very soon, and that will give Donald's numbers a huge boost.
And he will have his convention consisting of bashing Hillary, building a wall, and dismantling Obamacare.
And that too will give Donald's numbers still another huge boost.

For many, and with Trump's great poll number repeated over and over by the news media for several days in a row, for many it will seem all is lost.
It will seem Trump is destine to win and Hillary destine to lose.
However, as dreaded as this good news for Trump may appear, it will be short lived.

So everybody just keep calm, take a breath, force yourself off political TV for a day or two, and always remember...
Tomorrow is another day.
Every cloud has a silver lining.
Yea, though you walk through the valley of the shadow of death, fear no evil.
For mass insanity is typically short lived. And eventually, hopefully by November, people return to their senses.
And last but not least, Canada welcomes you with open arms, if it comes down to that.

So, Keep an upper lip. Smile. Relax. Take everything in perspective.
Accept the shocking news of that Donald Trump surge with a grain of salt.
No jumping off bridges. No alcohol bingeing. No needles. No drugs. And definitely keep all guns safely locked away.
And no kicking the dog or taking it out on the little woman.
We get through this if we stick together. Lets do stick together.

I want the drugs you are using.

 

[compuwiz1]

So when is the Trump Hillary debate?

I heard Bill O'reilly say that Hillary should refuse to debate Trump and that it wouldn't be in her best interests, or something like that. I laughed when I heard it.

Hillary can get every bit as nasty as Trump.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I heard Bill O'reilly say that Hillary should refuse to debate Trump and that it wouldn't be in her best interests, or something like that. I laughed when I heard it.

Hillary can get every bit as nasty as Trump.

Exactly, Trump can't refuse the debate either because he'll be seen as afraid.
I wonder how many practice debate partners he's gone thru, remember he's the guy who had his own Comedy Central roast and got pissed at the comedians because they made fun of him. He asked to be on the show.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Polls are tightening, perhaps indicating a backlash to the FBI decision not to indict. Clinton had less to gain in her VP pick as the demographics she would appeal to in that decision would never go Trump anyway. The Sanders endorsement may mitigate some progressive defections to Stein.

Trump similarly has a lot of work to do in unifying the Republican Party. He will have no support from the establishment.

The sound bytes coming out of the conventions and how both do in the debates will decide this election. Clinton does not do well when forced off script. Trump is unconventional but says some really really stupid and dangerous things. I hope the debate moderators in the months to come choose to ask challenging questions. I want to see how each performs outside of their respective comfort zones.

 

[Jaskalas]

TL;DR, Trump is being given a loud fanfare, but polls will tank once he opens his mouth.

 

[dullard]

Polls are tightening...I want to see how each performs outside of their respective comfort zones.

Thank you for a post that is unbiased and not confrontational. I will have to disagree with you, however, on the poll part.

For nearly 11 months, Clinton has been in the 43% to 50% range in the RealClearPolitics poll averages. That puts her at about 46.5% +- 3.5% for almost a year. Where is she now? 45%. Which is right within the range that she has been for that whole time, a bit low but close to the center.

For nearly 11 months, Trump has been in the 38% to 44% range in the RealClearPolitics poll averages. That puts him at about 41% +- 3.5% for almost a year. Where is he now? 40.7%. Which is right within the range that he has been for that whole time, a bit low but close to the center.

You can't really go off of the peaks and valleys of polls and be honest with your analysis. You need to look more at the medians and consider the margins of error. Otherwise, each time a new poll comes out within the statistical range, you'd say it tightened or loosened, when in fact nothing really changed.



Also, we have seen them outside of their comfort zones a lot. I don't think I've seen a week go by with Trump not in an agitated out of his comfort zone. I don't think Clinton being grilled over and over again in useless investigation after useless investigation is her comfort zone either. Both are getting quite used to it I would imagine.

 

[MongGrel]

Polls in July ZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz.