Repost from another thread, but I think it pretty much states my thoughts on AQ and the current state of affairs.
I know that AQ exists, and is a credible and proven threat in a few hot spots. I have several friends in the military, one in intelligence, and from every honest assessment I can draw from, I have concluded that AQ is vastly overstated as a threat by certain folks, and vastly understated as a threat by others. We must ask ourselves a few questions, and then decide what is a logical and wise course of action, as nations and as men.
Q : Is AQ a threat to national security?
A : I think so, but not in a direct way, much more so in indirect threats to our economic stability. Something in the line of destroying a major oil pipeline or two could easily cause severe economic pressure due to rising energy costs. At the right time, this could tip a recession into a depression. Further, in nations with a tenuous foothold at the edge of revolution (Pakistan, for example), select assassinations and other enraging actions could descend that nation, and then the region, into chaos.
Q : Is AQ a direct threat to the general citizenry?
A : Not a chance in hell. Statistically, you're probably more likely to be killed by a random allergic reaction or falling down in your bathroom than by *any* terrorist action, AQ or not.
Q : What is the appropriate response to groups such as AQ?
A : Intelligence, intelligence, intelligence. Nothing can replace field agents. This admittedly is more difficult, due to the vast social differences between our cultures. When intelligence brings concrete or actionable info on the whereabouts and intent of quality targets, we take them out wherever they are, with PRECISE and human-led action. Blowing 100 people to bits, while targeting 5, in a town with 5,000 people just gives you 4,900 more terrorist candidates that now have a personal reason to hate your rotten guts.
Q : Can AQ and the 'War on Terror' be won?
A : No. Guerrilla warfare, and the tactics of the weak (Terrorists) against the authority (Us, in this case) will be a trait of humanity for as long as we exist as a race. As it is currently loosely defined, Islamic Fundamentalist Terrorism will probably eventually fade into even more obscurity than it currently is, most religions tend to go through 'reformation' every few hundred years.
Q : Is Islam a violent religion?
A : No more so than any other. In reality, out of ~2 billion Muslims on earth, how many could be classified as 'fundamentalist/violent' at this time, proven by action? Fifty thousand? A hundred thousand? Five hundred thousand? In any case, a truly paltry sum indeed.
Q : What drives the current strife?
A : Convenience. With the fall of the Soviet Union, industries worth trillions went loose from the reins, struggling to find direction and survival amongst this strange new world order. More importantly, a reason was needed for the continued existence of a vast and powerful power structure. As in any such hidden crisis, something scary and fearsome was needed to motivate the general population to support actions and events that would ensure that such aligned individuals/corporations would not just survive, but thrive on the tide of things to come. Terrorism, as old as humanity, was dredged up as a catalyst to unite people into giving up freedom, money, and sometimes even their lives, towards fighting a common enemy. Sadly, rash and fear-driven overreactions to such a generalized idea are counterproductive to actual progress in seriously reducing/capping growth of these kinds of groups.