Australia stimulates itself out of poor economic conditions

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
Late in, early out of the downturn
Peter Martin Economics Correspondent
June 25, 2009
Australia is set to soar out of its economic downturn.

Australia is set to soar out of its economic downturn.

AUSTRALIA is set to soar out of its economic downturn sooner and more sharply than forecast in the budget, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development understood to have the backing of the Australian Treasury.

The OECD says the local economy should shrink 0.3 per cent this year, less than any other OECD economy and far less than the contraction of 1 per cent that underlies the forecasts in the May budget.

Next year the economy should roar back 2.4 per cent, also above budget forecasts and more than any other OECD economy apart from those recovering from collapse in 2009.

The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, greeted the forecasts released overnight in Paris as evidence Australia was "outperforming every other advanced economy in the face of the recession".

The forecasts show Australia's unemployment rate reaching 7.9 per cent late next year rather than the 8.25 to 8.5 per cent range assumed in the budget. They also suggest a milder build-up in government debt than forecast at budget time as increased tax revenues kick in more quickly.

The difference between the Treasury's May forecast and the OECD's June forecast is not thought to represent a difference of opinion. Treasury and Reserve Bank staff worked closely with the OECD in preparing the report. Rather the change is thought to indicate the speed at which the global economy is improving.

The OECD update is the first in two years to revise projections up rather than down. The organisation now expects developed economies to shrink by just 2.6 per cent this year, down from the 3.4 per cent it forecast in March. It expects the US economy to shrink by 1.7 per cent instead of 3.5 per cent, and Japan to shrink by 3.6 instead of 4.4 per cent.

"Activity now looks to be approaching its nadir," said the OECD chief economist, Jorgen Elmeskov. "Thanks to a strong economic policy effort an even darker scenario seems to have been avoided."

The OECD identifies China as the driving force behind the global recovery, crediting "massive government stimulus" measures with lifting expected growth there this year from 6.3 per cent to 7.7 per cent and to 9.3 per cent next year.

In a blow to the federal Opposition, the OECD specifically commends the infrastructure spending and cash bonus payments opposed by the Coalition in the Senate, describing them as "welcome" and "boosting" domestic demand.

It cautions policymakers not to ease up on efforts to stimulate their economies and says the Reserve Bank has room to further cut interest rates.

"With a nascent recovery hopefully in sight it would be tempting to relax the extraordinary policy effort of the past nine months," it says. "Tempting, but wrong. Not only because post-crisis policy strategies need preparing but also because there is still more policy can do to ensure a faster and more robust recovery."

The report says the Rudd Government needs to "maintain the expansionary thrust" of its policy. "Despite relatively favourable developments" Australia's conditions "remain fragile" with a further downturn likely this year.

http://business.smh.com.au/bus...urn-20090624-cwxb.html

Something to ponder as we discuss Obama's stimulus bill. The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.

edit:

Also, government spending provides a much more powerful economic stimulus than tax cuts do:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/zandi.gif
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
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0
I have to say they screwed their projection up before, so maybe they have this time, too.
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.
Really, you see no other potential problems?
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I have to say they screwed their projection up before, so maybe they have this time, too.
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.
Really, you see no other potential problems?

Oh yeah, i forgot, some of the money might not be allocated wisely, but the idea of a stimulus is still a good one.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
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In a blow to the federal Opposition, the OECD specifically commends the infrastructure spending and cash bonus payments opposed by the Coalition in the Senate, describing them as "welcome" and "boosting" domestic demand.

Much depends on what the infrastructure spending was targetted to. Accelerating existing work does not create many permanent jobs.

What cash bonus payments have we seen here in the US from Obama? The one that Bush did in '07 missed about 25% of the population.

Was Australia sliding as fast as the US into the economic downturn and job loss?

Those three things may have allowed Australia to cycle back faster with less pain than the US.

It is a good sign that Australia may be turning around - I would not expect that the US will do so at the same speed.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,651
4,167
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Originally posted by: Phokus
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.
I have a criticism that isn't ever discussed on P&N. I've posted it several times, but no one responds. My criticism: we are measuring the wrong thing. Or, more accurately, we are measuring only half of the correct thing.

Suppose you have a steady job earning $100k/year every year. Suppose inflation is non-existant in this scenario. Each year you buy $100k worth of goods/services. Your personal gross domestic product is thus $100k/year. Suppose you wanted to stimulate your GDP and you borrow and spend $20k this year. Suddenly, your GDP went from $100k to $120k. You got an extra $20k worth of goods/services. Great! Borrowing and spending stimulated your economy! Stimulus plans work!

That is, until you look at the real picture. GDP is a really crappy measurement. It measures the total production (and is tied closely consumption) and not the health of that production or consumption (you can't sustain that behavior of always borrowing and spending more and more). But we interpret GDP solely to mean the health of the economy.

That $20k boost to your personal GDP was real and it was measureable. But it is only half of the picture. The next year, you'll have to pay the loan back. Your $120k GDP was unhealthy as it was unsustainable. Next year, it'll drop to $80k (or even lower if you were charged interest). Your GDP average for both years ($120k+$80k)/2 is still the same $100k as it was before the stimulus. The stimulus APPEARED to work, because you only measured half of the picture. You aren't measuring the long-term half. A much better measurement would be to take (GDP + deficit) which in this case is $120k + -$20k = $100k. The stimulus did nothing in this measurement.

Same thing goes with tax cuts. They appear to work in the main numbers, but they usually are unsustainable and in the whole long-term picture, they have very little actual economic impact.

The only way that $20k stimulus would truely be a real stimulus is if you spent it improving your earning potential. Suppose you got a more advanced degree or training for that $20k, and now you earn $110k/year. That is real stimulus. But it could have been done just by adjusting your spending and without spending additional "stimulus" money.
 

rudder

Lifer
Nov 9, 2000
19,441
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Originally posted by: Phokus
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I have to say they screwed their projection up before, so maybe they have this time, too.
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.
Really, you see no other potential problems?

Oh yeah, i forgot, some of the money might not be allocated wisely, but the idea of a stimulus is still a good one.

Tell that to the Japanese. How long have they been in a recession after spending trillions?

 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Phokus
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.

That is, until you look at the real picture. GDP is a really crappy measurement. It measures the total production (and is tied closely consumption) and not the health of that production or consumption (you can't sustain that behavior of always borrowing and spending more and more). But we interpret GDP solely to mean the health of the economy.

That's because the stimulus is only SUPPOSED to be temporary. When the private sector recovers, the private sector will fill in the gap that the stimulus spending filled and we don't create any new stimulus packages. Nobody said the stimulus was going to be a permanent thing.


 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
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Oct 30, 2000
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If the stimulus does not generate anything permanent or even temporary long term; it is just a burp.

When the funds are no longer available what has happened.
If jobs were generated for 6 months (sumer interns) or construction contracts (whihc were already planned years in advance) get kicked off; where isthe continuing funds to support thedesired increase level of ativity.

those funds are gone - they are not being recycled into the economy.
Because the work was moved up; the regular level of work will exist and/or will have been cut because itwas already done.

Many of the stimulus packages are not generating new jobs; it is an attempt to save existing jobs.

so you save a 50K job for a year - without the funds next year, the same will happen - goodby job.

The stimulus needs to create a demand for that 50K job that becomes self sustaining, not a stop gap.
 

Mursilis

Diamond Member
Mar 11, 2001
7,756
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Originally posted by: Phokus
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Phokus
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.

That is, until you look at the real picture. GDP is a really crappy measurement. It measures the total production (and is tied closely consumption) and not the health of that production or consumption (you can't sustain that behavior of always borrowing and spending more and more). But we interpret GDP solely to mean the health of the economy.

That's because the stimulus is only SUPPOSED to be temporary. When the private sector recovers, the private sector will fill in the gap that the stimulus spending filled and we don't create any new stimulus packages. Nobody said the stimulus was going to be a permanent thing.

And if there's one organization you can trust to do the right thing fiscally, it's the gov't! :roll:
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Phokus
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.
I have a criticism that isn't ever discussed on P&N. I've posted it several times, but no one responds. My criticism: we are measuring the wrong thing. Or, more accurately, we are measuring only half of the correct thing.

Suppose you have a steady job earning $100k/year every year. Suppose inflation is non-existant in this scenario. Each year you buy $100k worth of goods/services. Your personal gross domestic product is thus $100k/year. Suppose you wanted to stimulate your GDP and you borrow and spend $20k this year. Suddenly, your GDP went from $100k to $120k. You got an extra $20k worth of goods/services. Great! Borrowing and spending stimulated your economy! Stimulus plans work!

That is, until you look at the real picture. GDP is a really crappy measurement. It measures the total production (and is tied closely consumption) and not the health of that production or consumption (you can't sustain that behavior of always borrowing and spending more and more). But we interpret GDP solely to mean the health of the economy.

That $20k boost to your personal GDP was real and it was measureable. But it is only half of the picture. The next year, you'll have to pay the loan back. Your $120k GDP was unhealthy as it was unsustainable. Next year, it'll drop to $80k (or even lower if you were charged interest). Your GDP average for both years ($120k+$80k)/2 is still the same $100k as it was before the stimulus. The stimulus APPEARED to work, because you only measured half of the picture. You aren't measuring the long-term half. A much better measurement would be to take (GDP + deficit) which in this case is $120k + -$20k = $100k. The stimulus did nothing in this measurement.

Same thing goes with tax cuts. They appear to work in the main numbers, but they usually are unsustainable and in the whole long-term picture, they have very little actual economic impact.

The only way that $20k stimulus would truely be a real stimulus is if you spent it improving your earning potential. Suppose you got a more advanced degree or training for that $20k, and now you earn $110k/year. That is real stimulus. But it could have been done just by adjusting your spending and without spending additional "stimulus" money.
Makes sense. One could say that the 20k was spent on apple trees, though, which are now returning a yearly profit, so once you pay this up your GDP is up to $105k and you have no debt, so you made a good investment. The question then is this stimulus being spent on apple trees or vacations, because one has a ROI and the other does not.

 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
Ok, here's a more technical explanation of why the stimulus is a good idea:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/zandi.gif

http://www.econbrowser.com/arc...0/pocketfull_of_m.html

given that the economy needs to be stimulated, what method of stimulation yields the largest economic benefit. The benefit here is expressed as the stimulus multiplier, which is the amount of increase in GDP per unit of stimulus. For example, if we simply gave every person in the country $1, each could go out and buy a McDonald's value menu item. But the benefit doesn't stop there because with the increased consumption, McDonald's has to hire more workers, who in turn consume more; purchase more supplies from its suppliers, who in turn hire more workers, etc. So in principle, a $1 stimulus package can have more than $1 benefit to overall production. So which economic stimuli had the greatest benefit? The top three were:

* Temporarily Increase Food-stamps (multiplier 1.73)
* Extend Unemployment Insurance Benefits (multiplier 1.64)
* Increase Infrastructure Spending (multiplier 1.59)

The first two items have the obvious benefits of keeping people on their feet, but also provide an extra 64-73% advantage beyond the direct stimulus. Of course these benefits can only be temporary. On the other hand, the third item has the advantage of improving neglected infrastructure -- a long term "capital gain" -- while at the same time providing an extra 60% bang for our buck.

Now for the worst stimulus concepts:

* Make Bush Tax Cuts Permanent (multiplier 0.29)
* Cut Corporate Tax Rate (multiplier 0.30)
* Make Dividend Tax Cuts Permanent (multiplier 0.37)

every dollar spent by the government creates more than 1 dollar in gdp. Every construction job create will create other jobs in other industries. You people are assuming that we'll be in recession forever.

Obviously, when our economic outlook is healthier, the need for a stimulus would be gone.

edit: whoops, the above quoted portion came from this:

http://chiropter.blogspot.com/...multiplier-effect.html

 

MikeMike

Lifer
Feb 6, 2000
45,885
66
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i am SOOOO sure that when Bush was giving out his stimulus you said it was a good idea... each and every time he did it... o wait no.

 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
In a blow to the federal Opposition, the OECD specifically commends the infrastructure spending and cash bonus payments opposed by the Coalition in the Senate, describing them as "welcome" and "boosting" domestic demand.

Much depends on what the infrastructure spending was targetted to. Accelerating existing work does not create many permanent jobs.

Really? So, taking the example of the WWII massiv government spending on war helping the economy move to the post-war improvements:

What 'depended' on what the 'infrastructure spending was targetted to', given that it went to completely destructive and expendable things - military equipment? What would be less productive than that - and yet the completel waste of those goods was still adequate for stimulating the economy.

How did the spending 'create many permanent jobs' that was only slightly for things that continued after the war, much for bombs and bullets, much for 'temporary' employment of millions of men in terribly unproductive work - carrying a rifle - that only hurt the economy, taking the out of the workforce, not training them with skills, etc.?

Oh, ya, the solution included massive *government programs* for housing assistance, for education, and whaddya know, it worked. It had nothing to do with one's moral opinion of how 'deserving' they were, it's just an economic question, did the massive government spending of the war and post-war 'work' to help the economy?

Your claims 'only if it's on the right infrastructure' and 'only if it's the right permanent work' are contradicted by the facts. Those things would just have helped even more.

But then, we've never tried the WWII spending on really productive stimulus. Makes rich people kind of nervous.

It is a good sign that Australia may be turning around - I would not expect that the US will do so at the same speed.

Which is off-topic from his thread, about Keynesian economics, which have clearly stood the test of time, generally.

At the same time we have some economists saying they are concerned our stimulus spending is too small, we have the same people who voted for the people who got us into this crisis saying it's too large and trying to block any more spending and ready to throw Obama out for his spending already. Generally no facts involved, they just think that's the right policy.

While Democracy is reasonably good at helping the public be able to counter concentrated power, it has a real weakness at mob mentality economic policies and such being passed.

And so these people just ignore the fact we're in an economic crisis and drag out the same anti-debt platitudes that are not what's needed. I hate government debt. But there's a time to eliminate it, not in a crisis. And there's a time for recognizing as bad as it is, the economy needs it. We recognized that in WWII and spend; and based on what most of the best economists are saying, we appear to need it now. Let's then try to pass policies to fix the problems that got to this problem, and pay off the debt.

If you want to see the short-sighted no-debt effects, look at the third-world nations in recent decades with IMF and World Bank policies forced on them, as they were forced not to spend on stimulus, on education, on the infrastructure - but their very poor economies could reduce debt. There's a saying about socialism offering an equal share of very little to everyone; the same could be said of the misguided anti-stimulus policies.

Democrats have already suggested pay as you go' policies; where's the strong Republican support for that 'fiscal conservatism'?
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
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Originally posted by: Phokus
every dollar spent by the government creates more than 1 dollar in gdp. Every construction job create will create other jobs in other industries. You people are assuming that we'll be in recession forever.

Obviously, when our economic outlook is healthier, the need for a stimulus would be gone.

edit: whoops, the above quoted portion came from this:

http://chiropter.blogspot.com/...multiplier-effect.html

the concern is will the economy get healthy before the first stimulus runs out.

New contrcution will enerate jobs. Advancing existing construction will not.

The cities/states that are pumping money into the infrastructure are advancing projects, not crating new projects. the jobs are already planned for and in position. It isthecrateion of new work that will create new jobs that will then be ble to sustainwhenthe stimuls is gone.

 

tk149

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2002
7,253
1
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Hope those predictions for Australia are correct.

I agree with Dullard's model. Government spending now, of course, pours money into the economy. But what happens when you have to pay it back?

My main issue is that the US stimulus plan is not targeted at infrastructure, which would help create future wealth. Nor is it designed to equitably distribute wealth. It simply is a crapload of shotgun effect pork barrel spending for Special Interests at the expense of future taxpayers. Of course, there is nothing new about this except for the immense scale, and the willingness of the American people to accept it. :(

 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
Originally posted by: Phokus
every dollar spent by the government creates more than 1 dollar in gdp. Every construction job create will create other jobs in other industries. You people are assuming that we'll be in recession forever.

Obviously, when our economic outlook is healthier, the need for a stimulus would be gone.

edit: whoops, the above quoted portion came from this:

http://chiropter.blogspot.com/...multiplier-effect.html

the concern is will the economy get healthy before the first stimulus runs out.

New contrcution will enerate jobs. Advancing existing construction will not.

The cities/states that are pumping money into the infrastructure are advancing projects, not crating new projects. the jobs are already planned for and in position. It isthecrateion of new work that will create new jobs that will then be ble to sustainwhenthe stimuls is gone.

Look at the alternatives. What would be worse, spending the money and creating that construction job (which in turn creates other jobs in the private sector thanks to the multiplier effect) or doing nothing? Or worse yet, take the true fiscal conservative line and cut taxes... or even worse, cut taxes and cut government spending like a true fiscal conservative would?

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/zandi.gif

Based on the evidence of the multiplier effect, the best to worst approach would be:

1) Increase spending
2) Combination of Increase spending and cutting taxes
3) Cut taxes
4) Do nothing
5) Cut taxes AND spending

(the last 2 options would probably destroy our economy and option number 3 wouldn't seem to help that much)

having more than 1.59 multiplier (and 1.64/1.73 multiplier from food stamps/unemployment benefits) is a great return on investment.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
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every dollar spent by the government creates more than 1 dollar in gdp.
This is just a ridiculous statement. Like trying to fly by pulling hard on your shoe's laces.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
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Oct 30, 2000
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My concern is that the stimulus guidelines given to the state prevent the generation of the new construction type jobs due to therequired timelines.

Most of the $$ is going to existing planned projects or non infrastructure projects.

Putting the $$ into projects that will take 3-5 years to complete will generate new jobs for the long term multiplier.

The $$ going into short term city/state work is easy on their budgets but not generating new jobs. Companies that are able to perform the work within the timespan required already have the employees on hand; they do not have the time to locate/train new people.
jobs that normally would be scheduled will just be postponed; the states/city do not have the staff to handle the additional work and the $$ are coded to not support those needs.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
every dollar spent by the government creates more than 1 dollar in gdp.
This is just a ridiculous statement. Like trying to fly by pulling hard on your shoe's laces.

Or a poor person getting rich by pulling up on their bootstraps, instead of with the government investing in them?

It's certainly true that some dollars spent by the government return more than they cost; not all, of course, government's charter includes some non-profitable expenses, too.

My rule on government spending has always been, 'spend the dollar if it makes more than a dollar back, and makes sense; or if it meets a justified moral need.'
 

cubeless

Diamond Member
Sep 17, 2001
4,295
1
81
Originally posted by: Phokus
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Phokus
The only valid criticism i can think of is that some of the spending isn't coming soon enough.

That is, until you look at the real picture. GDP is a really crappy measurement. It measures the total production (and is tied closely consumption) and not the health of that production or consumption (you can't sustain that behavior of always borrowing and spending more and more). But we interpret GDP solely to mean the health of the economy.

That's because the stimulus is only SUPPOSED to be temporary. When the private sector recovers, the private sector will fill in the gap that the stimulus spending filled and we don't create any new stimulus packages. Nobody said the stimulus was going to be a permanent thing.

then you might want to look at the strings attached to the 'stimulus' money to the states... there are long term program requirements attached to lots of the cash...
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
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Originally posted by: Skoorb
every dollar spent by the government creates more than 1 dollar in gdp.
This is just a ridiculous statement. Like trying to fly by pulling hard on your shoe's laces.

The dollar from the government has to come from somewhere. The GDP multiplier would have to be 3-5x to produce the taxes back to pay for the dollar.