Auburn, Oklahoma, USC and the BCS

[chuckywang]

Is it true that if Auburn and Oklahoma win out, then they will be #1 and #2 in the final BCS standings no matter what USC does based on their strengh of schedule (which factors in the computer rankings)?

This is what I heard and I was wondering if anybody else heard it.

(let's not have any posts about how the BCS sucks. that is not what this thread is about. this thread is about what is, not what should be. thanks)

 

[mpitts]

It's not true.

Oklahoma is a decided #1 in the computer polls, while USC is a decided #1 in the human polls.

If all three finish the season undefeated, Auburn is most likely on the outside looking in when it comes to the BCS championship game. Which, as we all know too well, means squat when it comes to the AP poll.

 

[arcas]

This is why BCS is such a complete failure. It fails to solve the problem it set out to solve. The NCAA needs to move to a playoff setup. Take the top 4 or 8 teams and let them play. It only adds a couple more weeks to the schedule, the NCAA makes tons more money and when it's all over, there is no dispute over who should be playing for the championship.

 

[DingDingDao]

Originally posted by: arcas
This is why BCS is such a complete failure. It fails to solve the problem it set out to solve. The NCAA needs to move to a playoff setup. Take the top 4 or 8 teams and let them play. It only adds a couple more weeks to the schedule, the NCAA makes tons more money and when it's all over, there is no dispute over who should be playing for the championship.

My sentiments exactly. Give this man a :beer:

 

[chuckywang]

*sigh*.... do people not know how to read?

 

[SP33Demon]

USC will probably be left out of title game due to their SOS, that is an accurate assumption. Only 2 will make it.

 

[sciencewhiz]

The polls are 2/3 of the BCS. With USC an almost unanimous #1, they are pretty much guaranteed to be in the championship game. So, the battle comes down to Oklahoma and Auburn. Since Oklahoma will be pretty much a unamious 1st in the computers and Auburn a pretty much unanimous 3rd, Auburn has no chance unless they start taking a lot of poll points away from USC.

Oklahoma's SOS is better then either USC or Auburn, but Auburn's is by far the worst. This year, they've beated 3 top 25 teams, and a bunch of horrible teams (50th to 100th and one div 1AA team, mostly in the 80th range). Oklahoma has beaten 3 top 25 teams, and everyone else between 30th and 80th, mostly in the 50th range. USC has also beaten 3 top 25 teams, and the rest of their teams are 30th to 100th, mostly in the 50s.

When you use the old BCS SOS calculation, Oklahoma is 4th, USC is 22nd, and Auburn is 41st.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
USC will probably be left out of title game due to their SOS, that is an accurate assumption. Only 2 will make it.

That was the case last year. However, the BCS formula was heavily modified so that the #1 in the polls is almost assured of making the title game. Also, see my post above. Auburn's SOS is NOT better then either USC or Oklahoma.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
USC will probably be left out of title game due to their SOS, that is an accurate assumption. Only 2 will make it.

That was the case last year. However, the BCS formula was heavily modified so that the #1 in the polls is almost assured of making the title game. Also, see my post above. Auburn's SOS is NOT better then either USC or Oklahoma.

You seem to know what you're talking about, so I could buy it, yes. I was thinking Auburn had a tougher schedule than USC, not factoring in non top 25 teams. Either way, Boise State and Utah could say they are champs as well

 

[chuckywang]

Is USC really that good? Do you think they'll be undefeated if they had to play Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, or Alabama? I think Auburn should be in the title game if they win the SEC just based on the fact that it's the hardest conference.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
Is USC really that good? Do you think they'll be undefeated if they had to play Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, or Alabama? I think Auburn should be in the title game if they win the SEC just based on the fact that it's the hardest conference.

First of all, Auburn doesn't play Florida, and even if they did, it wouldn't matter this year because florida isn't great.

Ivan Maisel from ESPN does a pretty good job dispelling the myth that the SEC is good this year: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.../09/mailbag/index.html

Auburn has one good year every decade and is always left out of the title picture. 1983: screwed (Miami leapfrogs No. 3 Auburn after the bowl games). 1993: undefeated but on probation (Auburn's own fault). 2004: about to be left out of again. The SEC champ should have an automatic berth in the national championship every year and it should be left at that.
-- Paul Crane, Auburn, Ala.

Good historical perspective, Paul, but you've got to be kidding me about the last part. I know it's engrained in Southerners at birth that the SEC is the undisputed best conference in the country, and there are certainly years where that's true, but it's hardly a given. In fact, according to both Jeff Sagarin's and Jerry Palm's computer rankings, the SEC is currently sixth, neck-and-neck with the Mountain West. If I'm an Auburn fan, I'd think twice about using "the SEC is tougher" as my argument for unseating either USC or Oklahoma. I'm sure the Trojans fans would be quick to point out that the SEC has lost six of its past eight head-to-head matchups with the Pac-10. And I'm sure the Big 12 would be happy to point out its 6-2 record against fellow BCS conferences this season compared with the SEC's illustrious 2-3 mark (its most impressive win coming against 4-5 Oregon State).

 

[Thraxen]

Is USC really that good? Do you think they'll be undefeated if they had to play Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, or Alabama? I think Auburn should be in the title game if they win the SEC just based on the fact that it's the hardest conference.

I think USC really is that good. I also think they were the best team last year. IMO, it should be USC and Auburn this year (assuming they both win out... USC still has Notre Dame which could prove dangerous). OU got in last year and didn't really deserve it. I would be kind of funny if they got left out this year like USC did last year.

Ivan Maisel from ESPN does a pretty good job dispelling the myth that the SEC is good this year:

That's pretty meaningless though without a list of who beat who.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
Is USC really that good? Do you think they'll be undefeated if they had to play Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, or Alabama? I think Auburn should be in the title game if they win the SEC just based on the fact that it's the hardest conference.

USC beat Cal, and Cal is undisputably a top 4 team (there is a big dropoff after that). they killed a good ASU team, and beat up on VT (who will be the ACC champs). when you look at the numbers AU's schedule just is not as tough as USC's.

even notre dame beat tennesee.

there isn't anything as tough as the Big XII south

 

[jjones]

By looking at the BCS computer rankings alone, not the human polls, it still seems that Auburn will be #3 at the end of the season. The only difference between the combined BCS rankings and the BCS computer alone is the computer has Oklahoma #1 (.990) and USC #2 (.970) and I don't think Auburn (.870) can make up the difference in %; but I don't know, maybe strength of schedule could do it but I didn't think it was that important this year as the emphasis it was given last year.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: jjones
By looking at the BCS computer rankings alone, not the human polls, it still seems that Auburn will be #3 at the end of the season. The only difference between the combined BCS rankings and the BCS computer alone is the computer has Oklahoma #1 (.990) and USC #2 (.970) and I don't think Auburn (.870) can make up the difference in %; but I don't know, maybe strength of schedule could do it but I didn't think it was that important this year as the emphasis it was given last year.

it isn't. SoS was in both the computers and it's own category last year. it was double counted. this year, it is just in the computers, and the human polls make up a bigger percentage than they did last year.

who beat who is still important. that is why boise state isn't ranked in the top 5.

 

[Alkaline5]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
The polls are 2/3 of the BCS. With USC an almost unanimous #1, they are pretty much guaranteed to be in the championship game. So, the battle comes down to Oklahoma and Auburn. Since Oklahoma will be pretty much a unamious 1st in the computers and Auburn a pretty much unanimous 3rd, Auburn has no chance unless they start taking a lot of poll points away from USC.

Oklahoma's SOS is better then either USC or Auburn, but Auburn's is by far the worst. This year, they've beated 3 top 25 teams, and a bunch of horrible teams (50th to 100th and one div 1AA team, mostly in the 80th range). Oklahoma has beaten 3 top 25 teams, and everyone else between 30th and 80th, mostly in the 50th range. USC has also beaten 3 top 25 teams, and the rest of their teams are 30th to 100th, mostly in the 50s.

When you use the old BCS SOS calculation, Oklahoma is 4th, USC is 22nd, and Auburn is 41st.

The season isn't over yet. Auburn's remaining games are Alabama and Tennessee while OU's games are Baylor and probably Iowa St. That should bring the SoS of all 3 teams to a rough parity. If all win out, that would also give Auburn 4 wins vs top 25 opponents (yes, they would have beaten UT twice but so what?)

Most importantly, Auburn has already caught Oklahoma in the polls and OU doesn't have any remaining chances to impress either voters or computers.

 

[Thraxen]

USC beat Cal, and Cal is undisputably a top 4 team (there is a big dropoff after that).

I agree. I think all the conferences are pretty weak this year. You have a few really good teams, then everybody else. But even the really good teams have had their close calls this year. Everyone was singing the praises of the ACC earlier, then Miami and FSU started losing games. Then look what happened to Wisconsin this last weekend. Then look at Texas... destroyed OSU, whom should have beat OU the week before, only to nearly lost to Kanses this week. Nobody seems consistent this year except for maybe Utah, but they don't play as tough a schedule as the other good teams out there.

 

[Mermaidman]

Just go back to the old system with the polls only. That was the charm of college fb. No cold, calculated championships--Just fuzzy human opinions!

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
The polls are 2/3 of the BCS. With USC an almost unanimous #1, they are pretty much guaranteed to be in the championship game. So, the battle comes down to Oklahoma and Auburn. Since Oklahoma will be pretty much a unamious 1st in the computers and Auburn a pretty much unanimous 3rd, Auburn has no chance unless they start taking a lot of poll points away from USC.

Oklahoma's SOS is better then either USC or Auburn, but Auburn's is by far the worst. This year, they've beated 3 top 25 teams, and a bunch of horrible teams (50th to 100th and one div 1AA team, mostly in the 80th range). Oklahoma has beaten 3 top 25 teams, and everyone else between 30th and 80th, mostly in the 50th range. USC has also beaten 3 top 25 teams, and the rest of their teams are 30th to 100th, mostly in the 50s.

When you use the old BCS SOS calculation, Oklahoma is 4th, USC is 22nd, and Auburn is 41st.

The season isn't over yet. Auburn's remaining games are Alabama and Tennessee while OU's games are Baylor and probably Iowa St. That should bring the SoS of all 3 teams to a rough parity. If all win out, that would also give Auburn 4 wins vs top 25 opponents (yes, they would have beaten UT twice but so what?)

Most importantly, Auburn has already caught Oklahoma in the polls and OU doesn't have any remaining chances to impress either voters or computers.

Don't forget that Auburn has a punishing defense, one of the best in the nation, and much better than OU. I think it would make USC legitimate champions to defeat the team with the better defense, but I'm old school like that

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: Thraxen

USC beat Cal, and Cal is undisputably a top 4 team (there is a big dropoff after that).

I agree. I think all the conferences are pretty weak this year. You have a few really good teams, then everybody else. But even the really good teams have had their close calls this year. Everyone was singing the praises of the ACC earlier, then Miami and FSU started losing games. Then look what happened to Wisconsin this last weekend. Then look at Texas... destroyed OSU, whom should have beat OU the week before, only to lose to Kanses this week. Nobody seems consistent this year except for maybe Utah, but they don't play as tough a schedule as the other good teams out there.

texas didn't lose to kansas.

 

[Thraxen]

texas didn't lose to kansas.

Ooops... don't know what I was thinking. They had that last minute comeback. I'll revise my post.

I watched that game on TV. I was hoping Kansas would hold on because I didn't want Texas to beat out Utah for a BCS spot.

 

[chuckywang]

Originally posted by: Thraxen

Is USC really that good? Do you think they'll be undefeated if they had to play Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, or Alabama? I think Auburn should be in the title game if they win the SEC just based on the fact that it's the hardest conference.

I think USC really is that good. I also think they were the best team last year. IMO, it should be USC and Auburn this year (assuming they both win out... USC still has Notre Dame which could prove dangerous). OU got in last year and didn't really deserve it. I would be kind of funny if they got left out this year like USC did last year.

Ivan Maisel from ESPN does a pretty good job dispelling the myth that the SEC is good this year:

That's pretty meaningless though without a list of who beat who.

That VTech game was closer than it looked. If it wasn't for a couple of calls, who knows what would have happened. Since Cal and USC are in the same conference, their strength of schedule should be similar. Look at Cal's non-conference games: Air Force, New Mexico State, and Southern Miss. Not one major conference team.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: Thraxen

texas didn't lose to kansas.

Ooops... don't know what I was thinking. They had that last minute comeback. I'll revise my post.

I watched that game on TV. I was hoping Kansas would hold on because I didn't want Texas to beat out Utah for a BCS spot.

texas won't be in the bcs unless cal, usc, ou, or au lose, or if michigan jumps utah.

 

[Saulbadguy]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: Thraxen

USC beat Cal, and Cal is undisputably a top 4 team (there is a big dropoff after that).

I agree. I think all the conferences are pretty weak this year. You have a few really good teams, then everybody else. But even the really good teams have had their close calls this year. Everyone was singing the praises of the ACC earlier, then Miami and FSU started losing games. Then look what happened to Wisconsin this last weekend. Then look at Texas... destroyed OSU, whom should have beat OU the week before, only to lose to Kanses this week. Nobody seems consistent this year except for maybe Utah, but they don't play as tough a schedule as the other good teams out there.

texas didn't lose to kansas.

They should have. Texas is a fraud. KU got royally screwed by the officiating in that game. They missed a Bensen fumble (while looking right at it)..and the big screw job came when they called Offensive PI on Charles Gordon, which should have given them a first down and time to kill the clock. Good job, Refs.

 

[Thraxen]

texas won't be in the bcs unless cal, usc, ou, or au lose, or if michigan jumps utah.

So how would it all work out? Say if everyone wins out and USC and OU end up 1 and 2. Why wouldn't Texas get an at large bid over Utah?