ATT vs Verizon, Neck and Neck

[JS80]

Come back in a couple years after iPhone's been on Verizon.


VZW: +19.6 million subscribers
ATT: -9.6 million subscribers

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

Come back in a couple years after iPhone's been on Verizon.


VZW: +19.6 million subscribers
ATT: -9.6 million subscribers

So your actual evidence is?

 

[gsaldivar]

So your actual evidence is?

http://tinyurl.com/36h2c4d

 

[zerocool84]

I'd be surprised to see a sudden mass exodus no matter what people say they would do. That ETF is pretty pricey nowadays. If people bought an iPhone 4 at release (if they could find an iPhone 4 at release), then their ETF would be around $300 early next year. http://mashable.com/2010/05/21/iphone-early-termination-fee/

Even with the theoretical Ebay value of the iPhone 4 being $400+, it is still a bit daunting to pay that $300 ETF only to walk across the street and pay another $200 for a theoretical Verizon iPhone 5.

But this is best-case because most people I know don't sell their phones when they leave a service. They stick them in a drawer and then eventually sell them to a friend for a bargain or just let them gather dust and then give them to charity or something. Almost none of the people that I know ever Ebay them... so for them they'd be looking at $500 to switch to Verizon... I don't see a mass exodus... but maybe.

Yea I don't know why everyone seems to think no one cares about paying ETF's but people do. No way almost half of the iPhone users are going to pay the ETF just to go to Verizon.

 

[gsaldivar]

Yea I don't know why everyone seems to think no one cares about paying ETF's but people do. No way almost half of the iPhone users are going to pay the ETF just to go to Verizon.

If the choice is to pay $2500+ to finish a contract on a mediocre network or $300 to bail and switch to better network...

Believe me, I'd gladly pay the ETF.

 

[zerocool84]

If the choice is to pay $2500+ to finish a contract on a mediocre network or $300 to bail and switch to better network...

Believe me, I'd gladly pay the ETF.

You are not the average consumer. No one on these boards is.

 

[gsaldivar]

You are not the average consumer. No one on these boards is.

Right, but most average consumers that I know can do simple math.

AT&T is deluding themselves if they think that the ETF will insulate them against a mass exodus when they lose the exclusivity on iPhone...

 

[zerocool84]

Right, but most average consumers that I know can do simple math.

AT&T is deluding themselves if they think that the ETF will insulate them against a mass exodus when they lose the exclusivity on iPhone...

but what's the math? Pay over $300 just to change carriers? Also if there really is going to be a mass exodus as everyone says, used iPhones are going to drop in price and you won't get the same used price for it as you used to since used ones are going to flood the market.

 

[gsaldivar]

but what's the math? Pay over $300 just to change carriers? Also if there really is going to be a mass exodus as everyone says, used iPhones are going to drop in price and you won't get the same used price for it as you used to since used ones are going to flood the market.

The cost of the phone and/or ETF is only a small fraction of the cost of the service contract. Most people paying $80/month or whatever aren't wringing their hands worrying about resale values on a used phone...

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

http://tinyurl.com/36h2c4d

So you have an analyst saying IF the iPhone comes to Verizon, this is what happens?

That's not evidence.

 

[gsaldivar]

So you have an analyst saying IF the iPhone comes to Verizon, this is what happens?

That's not evidence.

It's called a forecast. An analyst's critical and educated guess.

Are you seriously asking for evidence from the future?

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

It's called a forecast. An analyst's critical and educated guess.

Are you seriously asking for evidence from the future?

Sorry, I thought his statistics were based on something Verizon/AT&T said during their quarterly earnings. Didn't realize it was a forecast.

 

[kaerflog]

Sorry I don't see tons of ATT customers jumping ship like some of you are forecasting.
I stated earier in the thread that ATT gained quite a bit of customers because of the tier data plans.
Its simple logic.
Lost of iphone users are women, moms, people that want a simple device.
Most of these iphone owners aren't using data like we do.
200mb for $15 is enough for plenty of them.
Doing simple math.
- Owning an iphone can cost you individually $75($40+20+15).
- Owning a smartphone on Verizon individually is $90($40+20+30).
Plus an ATT iphone is a GSM phones.
GSM phones are much more desirable.
People tend to forget that there is a huge huge market for GSM iphones in countries that aren't selling iphones.
Sure some peope might leave for a better net work but ATT is not that bad and its cheaper.
I don't see a massive exit as people are predicting.

 

[zerocool84]

Sorry I don't see tons of ATT customers jumping ship like some of you are forecasting.
I stated earier in the thread that ATT gained quite a bit of customers because of the tier data plans.
Its simple logic.
Lost of iphone users are women, moms, people that want a simple device.
Most of these iphone owners aren't using data like we do.
200mb for $15 is enough for plenty of them.
Doing simple math.
- Owning an iphone can cost you individually $75($40+20+15).
- Owning a smartphone on Verizon individually is $90($40+20+30).
Plus an ATT iphone is a GSM phones.
GSM phones are much more desirable.
People tend to forget that there is a huge huge market for GSM iphones in countries that aren't selling iphones.
Sure some peope might leave for a better net work but ATT is not that bad and its cheaper.
I don't see a massive exit as people are predicting.

FYI Verizon is going to have tierd data plans by the end of the week. Supposedly rolling out the 28th.

 

[MrX8503]

The mass exodus isn't gonna happen until most of the ATT users are near the end of their contracts.

Whats gonna happen with with a Verizon iPhone is that the subscribers that have been going to ATT in groves would probably be cut in half.

 

[Headcase_Fargone]

My main concern at this point is tiered/capped data plans. I just can't stomach that. I'm in Sprint right now and even though LTE has me drooling I just don't think I'll switch for it if there's a cap. I've never even gone over 5gb in one month (though I have gone over 2gb before), it's just more of a mental sense of security thing I guess.

For instance, my DSL was out for a week due to a billing issue on AT&T's part. Normally that would be a nightmare. Now I just set my Evo on Wimax and turned tethering on. The fact that I didn't have to worry about going over my data plan cap was very nice.

 

[JS80]

All the corporate users will immediately terminate their contracts with AT&T and expense their ETF.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

All the corporate users will immediately terminate their contracts with AT&T and expense their ETF.

Why would they do that?

 

[2Xtreme21]

All the corporate users will immediately terminate their contracts with AT&T and expense their ETF.

No? You act like going to Verizon would really be lifechanging. In the end, you're still getting ass raped like the consumer whore we all are.

 

[zerocool84]

No? You act like going to Verizon would really be lifechanging. In the end, you're still getting ass raped like the consumer whore we all are.

I have no idea why everyone thinks that. I've always bashed AT&T on here but no normal person is going to pay the $300+ ETF fee. Sure many people will but not the 40% of iPhone users that everyone is saying.