Ars: Moores Law dead at 51

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ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
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Meh, it was dead quite a while ago when Intel was past 6 months late with introducing Broadwell ...

It's just more evident now but I really question just how much advantage Intel has now ...
 
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videogames101

videogames101

Diamond Member
Aug 24, 2005
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Meanwhile foundries will continue delivering new nodes.

The only thing that has changed is the necessary scale and timeline.
 
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ShintaiDK

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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The entire hardware industry is (half)dead now due to economics. People better lower their expectations drastically for the future. The only growth segments left seems to be IoT and servers.
 
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dbcoopernz

Member
Aug 10, 2012
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Nature News had an article too:

http://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338

Since the 1990s, in fact, the semiconductor industry has released a research road map every two years to coordinate what its hundreds of manufacturers and suppliers are doing to stay in step with the law — a strategy sometimes called More Moore. It has been largely thanks to this road map that computers have followed the law's exponential demands.

...

The industry road map released next month will for the first time lay out a research and development plan that is not centred on Moore's law. Instead, it will follow what might be called the More than Moore strategy: rather than making the chips better and letting the applications follow, it will start with applications — from smartphones and supercomputers to data centres in the cloud — and work downwards to see what chips are needed to support them. Among those chips will be new generations of sensors, power-management circuits and other silicon devices required by a world in which computing is increasingly mobile.
Click to expand...
 
Arachnotronic

Arachnotronic

Lifer
Mar 10, 2006
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Moore's Law only seems dead for the company that has been arrogantly beating its chest about being better at it than everyone else (Intel).

TSMC (and Samsung, though with 14/16nm they apparently just copied TSMC's homework) seems to be moving through process nodes at an appropriate clip.
 
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
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All because of faildozer. If it werent for faildozer Intel would be on 10nm right now.
 
frozentundra123456

frozentundra123456

Lifer
Aug 11, 2008
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Arachnotronic said:
Moore's Law only seems dead for the company that has been arrogantly beating its chest about being better at it than everyone else (Intel).

TSMC (and Samsung, though with 14/16nm they apparently just copied TSMC's homework) seems to be moving through process nodes at an appropriate clip.
Click to expand...

Agreed, they seem to be doing better, but lets see how much longer they can keep up the pace as well.
 
Arachnotronic

Arachnotronic

Lifer
Mar 10, 2006
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frozentundra123456 said:
Agreed, they seem to be doing better, but lets see how much longer they can keep up the pace as well.
Click to expand...

Yeah. It's just funny (in a sad sort of way) to see the arrogant executives at Intel who declared the fabless model to be "dead" getting owned by the foundries like this. No wonder Mark Bohr hasn't been saying much publicly these days, way too much egg on his face.
 
ShintaiDK

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
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Lets be honest, without Apple, TSMC and Samsung wouldn't be able to afford anything. Its Apples willingness to pay "any price" for 100s of million chips that have gotten the foundries so far. Apple in trouble means TSMC and Samsung foundries are in trouble.
 
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Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
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ShintaiDK said:
Lets be honest, without Apple, TSMC and Samsung wouldn't be able to afford anything. Its Apples willingness to pay "any price" for 100s of million chips that have gotten the foundries so far. Apple in trouble means TSMC and Samsung foundries are in trouble.
Click to expand...

To the common man it doesn't really matter how we got here and whos responsible for it. Only thing that really matters is where we're at currently.

Apple may have paid the way to this point, but the collective Industry is capable of advancing it further.
 
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Shaun_Brannen

Member
Jan 25, 2016
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This is why, IMO, the US government should be throwing tons of money (to a point) at semiconductor R&D. Maybe it'll buy a node or two... and it'd be quite the investment.

At some point, Intel will probably have to give up its leadership status and potentially go full-colaboration on semiconductor R&D. It'd be nice to see "socialized" process technology, where the costs are more evenly distributed, and the differentiation is in chip design, not at the fab. Maybe I'm getting a bit ahead of myself, though.
sm625 said:
All because of faildozer. If it werent for faildozer Intel would be on 10nm right now.
Click to expand...
wat
 
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Ajay

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,451
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ShintaiDK said:
Lets be honest, without Apple, TSMC and Samsung wouldn't be able to afford anything. Its Apples willingness to pay "any price" for 100s of million chips that have gotten the foundries so far. Apple in trouble means TSMC and Samsung foundries are in trouble.
Click to expand...

It depends on how Apple reacts. If they think they the best way to maintain margins is to stay on cutting edge nodes, then they will still implicitly pay a large chunk of the R&D costs. If Apple decides it needs to cut costs to maintain margins - then they company may delay implementation on future nodes (10nm is probably baked in already).
 
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