Question are video card prices headed down yet?

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
12,557
3,955
136
This has nothing to do with the Market or Even bitcoin coming back up. They most likely will.

But that won't make coin mining profitable again, unless a large amount of GPUs permanently leave the mining game.
Like I've been saying, the expectation is when the money printer gets turned back on, crypto in general will surge to the point that there will be very profitable PoW coins. Enough to outpace the miners joining in.

The problem is there's no guarantee that this will happen any time soon. And it may be further out than I had thought.
 

guidryp

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2006
2,653
3,501
136
Like I've been saying, the expectation is when the money printer gets turned back on, crypto in general will surge to the point that there will be very profitable PoW coins. Enough to outpace the miners joining in.

The problem is there's no guarantee that this will happen any time soon. And it may be further out than I had thought.
That logic simply doesn't hold when you are talking about an order of magnitude more GPU capacity sitting idle waiting for that sign of profitability.

Other GPU mining coins simply can't handle the Ethereum GPU volume. That GPU volume has to fall.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,550
2,844
136
I imagine mining rigs are like animals in the wild, and Ethereum was their food source that suddenly went extinct. They stand around waiting for a meal to show up, but eventually they will start to die off. A rodent appears, but it's hardly enough for one or two to enjoy. The others can only look on and await their fate.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
20,280
9,332
136
Wasting power on PoW busywork is getting less acceptable every day, for environmental reasons.
It isn't just environmental reasons. There are places this winter where people may not have enough available grid power for heat or cell phone service 24/7. Ditto for people looking to use heating oil or similar for heat. Anyone sitting on production capacity pouring it into Bitcoin ASICs is gonna get the stink eye from people who can't even buy proper heating at any price.

Like I've been saying, the expectation is when the money printer gets turned back on, crypto in general will surge to the point that there will be very profitable PoW coins. Enough to outpace the miners joining in.
PoW in general is on a downturn.
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,824
1,494
136
It isn't just environmental reasons. There are places this winter where people may not have enough available grid power for heat or cell phone service 24/7. Ditto for people looking to use heating oil or similar for heat. Anyone sitting on production capacity pouring it into Bitcoin ASICs is gonna get the stink eye from people who can't even buy proper heating at any price.
Authorities here have just gone nuts over expected brownouts. Someone realised that cell phone towers only have ~30 minutes of backup power. Not good when you're planning 2 hour brownouts. Not having access to emergency services kind of sucks and very few still have land lines.

As for heating an awful lot of people in Europe are in serious trouble.
 

mastertech01

Moderator Emeritus<br>Elite Member
Nov 13, 1999
11,811
194
106
Authorities here have just gone nuts over expected brownouts. Someone realised that cell phone towers only have ~30 minutes of backup power. Not good when you're planning 2 hour brownouts. Not having access to emergency services kind of sucks and very few still have land lines.

As for heating an awful lot of people in Europe are in serious trouble.
How you gonna keep all those electric cars charged up?
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,381
2,060
136
This has nothing to do with the Market or Even bitcoin coming back up. They most likely will.

But that won't make coin mining profitable again, unless a large amount of GPUs permanently leave the mining game.

I said this would happen before the merge and people some didn't get it. Ethereum's was an order of magnitude larger than other minable coins.

When Ethereum merged, all that mining capacity killed all the other coins profit.

Since Ethereum is gone, the biggest market cap GPU minable coin is Dogecoin which is basically a freaking joke.

The two biggest coins below Bitcoin and Ethereum are PoS.

PoW is out of favor, there is nothing rushing in to take Ethereums place.

As long as most of that excess Ethereum mining power sits waiting for profitability, there will be no profitability. Since as soon as anything is profitable, that capacity goes to work on it, and wrecks it.

It's going to take a LOT of miners finally cluing in a bailing out before the remainder can start to eek out profits again, and those profits are likely going to be lower because there is a LOT of excess capacity to work through.
Bitcoin is still PoW and will remain PoW until it dies. Ironically that is one of the reasons why BTC maxis love it - because it has not evolved with times (the whole 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC). However, ETH has successfully transitioned to PoS.

I actually watched that video till the end for funsies and the guy does admit that he is addicted to mining which along with his other political ramblings explains his position. This is a PoW maxi who is addicted to mining. Like many other maxis he is delusional. The only good reason he gives for hoarding is his youtube income - the dude is monetizing on other PoW maxis.

The simple mathematical fact is that in order for video card mining profitability to return, another PoW coin that can only be mined on GPUs would have to dethrone ETH in market cap and I just don't see that happening. GPU mining is over, some people are just too dumb to realize it.
 
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guidryp

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2006
2,653
3,501
136
Bitcoin is still PoW and will remain PoW until it dies. Ironically that is one of the reasons why BTC maxis love it - because it has not evolved with times. However, ETH has successfully transitioned to PoS.
Clutching to PoW might be what eventually causes Bitcoin death as it's power wasting starts causing countries to legislate against it.

Bitcoin isn't GPU mineable and hasn't been for a long time, and discussion is largely about GPU mining, and the impact on GPU pricing.

The largest value GPU Mineable coin is Dogecoin. Which is basically memecoin with no real use. The originators of Dogecoin admit was started as a joke, and they quickly bailed out.

PoW GPU mining seems to be on the decline, with the top 4 coins NOT being GPU mined, and pressure will always be brought against any power wasting mining operations.

With these trends and with so many of the big GPU miners like Red Panda in the denial stage holding onto their GPU farms, I expect GPU mining will be miserable at least for a year, until a lot of the GPU miners just give up and sell cards.

The simple mathematical fact is that in order for video card mining profitability to return, another PoW coin that can only be mined on GPUs would have to dethrone ETH in market cap and I just don't see that happening. GPU mining is over, some people are just too dumb to realize it.
Same here for reasons above. Though I think small bit of profitability will exist, when the bulk of those Ethereum miners give up and sell off their cards.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
13,799
3,803
136
On top of that, any time profitability returns to any coins, all the remaining shut down farms will come back online, and drive out the profit again.
Except for the first few people that get on that profitable coin. They will make bank.
Cryptocoins is a pyramid scam and basically always has been. But the thing about pyramid scams is that they work. For whatever reason people have an inherent weakness for them. They always believe that this time they will be on the top of the pyramid.
Just think about all the people you have known that thought they were going to profit off of Sentsy, Herbalife, Pure Romance, Amway, Avon, Cutco, or Mary Kay. They never learn. I am guessing Crypto Miners are the new Herbalife salesmen. Always chasing the next get rich quick coin.
 

guidryp

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2006
2,653
3,501
136
Except for the first few people that get on that profitable coin. They will make bank.
You are talking more about holders of coin that happens to take off.

I'm talking more about mining profits. Electricity cost vs current value of coin mined. Generally if any coin starts showing mining profits, you won't have more than day to mine before everyone clues in. How much can you profit on mining in a day? It won't be making bank, it will be pocket change.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
54,518
8,651
126

Here's a (slightly insane?) take on the whole merge thing... rent/buy your own datacenter, and fill it with mining clients, charge per rig hosted. Maybe that the future of mining? Hosting rigs.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,333
3,869
136

Here's a (slightly insane?) take on the whole merge thing... rent/buy your own datacenter, and fill it with mining clients, charge per rig hosted. Maybe that the future of mining? Hosting rigs.
That sounds like one of the most idiotic scheme ever. IF mining is profitable, why rent a rig, where it can be assumed that the client also makes a profit after paying the rent, when you, the owner and maintainer of the equipment, can mine directly and keep all of the profits.

Has mining transformed some into idiots?
 
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guidryp

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2006
2,653
3,501
136
That sounds like one of the most idiotic scheme ever. IF mining is profitable, why rent a rig, where it can be assumed that the client also makes a profit after paying the rent, when you, the owner and maintainer of the equipment, can mine directly and keep all of the profits.

Has mining transformed some into idiots?
He's renting out space, not rigs. He has his own rigs for his personal mining, and stumbled into hosting other rigs for a fee, since he had a lot of extra space in his new (rented) building.

Set your fee high enough you get half the profit, without investing in the gear.

Hosting the rigs, like making money off miners, instead of mining yourself in the gold rush. But the gold rush is over and there is no mining going on.

He has no business plan or anything, and is just doing whatever. He's basically giving them free storage when they are off (since mining isn't profitable), he's taking in more rigs than he has space to host figuring he will just find another building.

The real losers were the people suckered into spending $18K on a mining rig, then $265/month to host it, that only left them with $35/month profit, even back when mining was profitable. That's about 2% annual return, so a payback of never, even in the good times.

Just a whole bunch of nutty behavior based on free money to do very little except burn electricity.

Unless these are trust fund kids looking for something to do, reality should grind this to a halt in short order.

Rent on that data center is going to be a fairly hefty monthly with no mining going on, and giving free storage to the other miner rigs, means ZERO income and all outflow.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
12,557
3,955
136
Checked Newegg and 3080 and below continue to be over their original MSRP. The closest is that they offer an Open Box 3070 at $499.
 
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guidryp

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2006
2,653
3,501
136
There's a reason nVidia only cut prices above the 3080. They have plenty of time to sell the inventory. The 4070 and below are not coming out for some time.
Plus, even when new generation of lower end parts show up, there typically is even less performance and perf/$ gains at this end of the market. In recent years, new generation low end was more side-grade that clear upgrade.
 

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