Question are video card prices headed down yet?

[Saylick]

Hmm, Greymon55 claims that Nvidia is only launching AD102 this year:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1547805136210509824

 

[jpiniero]

Hmm, Greymon55 claims that Nvidia is only launching AD102 this year:

Only the 4090 makes sense but I'm surprised they are waiting that long to release it. The inventory must be pretty bad, even with the price cuts.

No AD104 means nVidia doesn't think AMD is releasing N33 this year.

 

[Saylick]

Only the 4090 makes sense but I'm surprised they are waiting that long to release it. The inventory must be pretty bad, even with the price cuts.

No AD104 means nVidia doesn't think AMD is releasing N33 this year.

Or, Nvidia understand that the Ampere inventory is a problem and so they won't launch a lower end Lovelace SKU until the old and used Ampere stock come down. AIBs might be forcing Nvidia's hand, as alleged by MILD when he said that AIBs are pushing back and starting to threaten not taking on shipments of Lovelace until they clear out their inventory of Ampere.

 

[KompuKare]

That might be enough to scare AMD out of releasing N33 this year. We'll see.

I'm still not convinced that The Flood will immediately happen if Ethereum becomes unprofitable though, mostly because I think there's plenty who will turn to PoW altcoins as long as those are profitable... and/or shut down but not sell cards and wait and see if the Money Printer gets turned back on in which case altcoins definitely would be.

So if the combined speculative hashrate of tens of millions of GPUs turns to some of these tiny coins... will they remain profitable for all of one hour?

 

[Karnak]

The inventory must be pretty bad, even with the price cuts.

No AD104 means nVidia doesn't think AMD is releasing N33 this year.

There's you're answer for the latter. Inventory has nothing to do with the competition. If the inventory is really THAT bad, they would be stupid to launch something like an AD104.

 

[jpiniero]

There's you're answer for the latter. Inventory has nothing to do with the competition. If the inventory is really THAT bad, they would be stupid to launch something like an AD104.

But if AMD were to go ahead with N33, nVidia would probably feel compelled to do the same.

 

[Aapje]

But if AMD were to go ahead with N33, nVidia would probably feel compelled to do the same.

They'd pretty much have to, to not lose market share.

 

[jpiniero]

They'd pretty much have to, to not lose market share.

CES is looking like it's going to be very busy.

 

[DrMrLordX]

So if the combined speculative hashrate of tens of millions of GPUs turns to some of these tiny coins... will they remain profitable for all of one hour?

They will not.

 

[Ajay]

They'd pretty much have to, to not lose market share.

Mindshare, not market share. With all the excess inventory of RTX 3000's supposedly out there, their market share will stay high. However, it may look to enthusiasts that NV is behind.

 

[Aapje]

Mindshare, not market share. With all the excess inventory of RTX 3000's supposedly out there, their market share will stay high. However, it may look to enthusiasts that NV is behind.

If 7700's come out, but Nvidia is trying to still sell 3070's, they'll start losing sales to AMD.

 

[DrMrLordX]

If 7700's come out, but Nvidia is trying to still sell 3070's, they'll start losing sales to AMD.

How much faster will RDNA3 cards be than a 3090 or 3090Ti?

 

[jpiniero]

I will say that looking at nowinstock, nVidia's low end and even mid/high end cards look like they are still selling decently above the official MSRP. Maybe you can get a 3050 or 3060 for MSRP but you'd have to look hard I think. Even the 3080 12 GB is selling below it's MSRP but above $699. It's looking like only The Flood would change that. nVidia is content to let it play out because replacement mid range cards will be a long while.

How much faster will RDNA3 cards be than a 3090 or 3090Ti?

The expecation is that N33, and maybe the 4070, is around there.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I will say that looking at nowinstock, nVidia's low end and even mid/high end cards look like they are still selling decently above the official MSRP. Maybe you can get a 3050 or 3060 for MSRP but you'd have to look hard I think. Even the 3080 12 GB is selling below it's MSRP but above $699. It's looking like only The Flood would change that. nVidia is content to let it play out because replacement mid range cards will be a long while.



The expecation is that N33, and maybe the 4070, is around there.

Based on what we're seeing, if NV just wants to play out its existing inventory, it can just allow some price compression on their 3000-series products. There are still plenty of gamers out there that don't have something on par with a 3090. The only way they lose market share is if AMD floods the market with products that can beat discounted 3000-series cards on price and performance at every price points. It's unlikely that AMD will try for a volume play in the consumer dGPU market. If they do wind up taking extra N5-family wafers, they'll likely direct that silicon elsewhere (okay just a guess, but still . . .)

 

[amenx]

I think Nvidia and the AIBs have a pretty good idea how to dwindle down their stocks relative to price. As we get closer to new cards launch, prices will drop relative to inventory of each card model. Anything left over in the final month will see the biggest price drops. We still have a ways to go. Its a balancing act involving how much milking they can achieve before the final month.

 

[jpiniero]

I think Nvidia and the AIBs have a pretty good idea how to dwindle down their stocks relative to price. As we get closer to new cards launch, prices will drop relative to inventory of each card model. Anything left over in the final month will see the biggest price drops. We still have a ways to go. Its a balancing act involving how much milking they can achieve before the final month.

The GA102 inventory has to be pretty bad for them to delay the 4090 by 3 months and officially cut the GA102 prices.

 

[Aapje]

It's crucial that they get rid of their 3080 and 3090's, the 3070 and 3060 can possibly be sold longer for a discount, but the AD102 cards are too expensive to make, to discount to a point where it still sells.

 

[DeathReborn]

The Radeon 6700 10GB is now up for pre-order in the UK starting at £349, the same price(+) as a 6600XT & £30+ under the 6650XT price. For reference the 6700XT is £449+ (MSRP £419). It does look like there's fewer models to choose from now, normally that happens in the month or two prior to a launch but I doubt AMD are that close to launching.

 

[amenx]

The GA102 inventory has to be pretty bad for them to delay the 4090 by 3 months and officially cut the GA102 prices.

What 4090 delay rumors are you going by? I dont necessarily see that. They may be trying to move GA102 inventory more agressively precisely because 4090 is on schedule (Sept/Oct). Your guess in the dark is no better than anyone elses guess in the dark at this stage.

 

[Aapje]

I think Nvidia and the AIBs have a pretty good idea how to dwindle down their stocks relative to price. As we get closer to new cards launch, prices will drop relative to inventory of each card model. Anything left over in the final month will see the biggest price drops. We still have a ways to go. Its a balancing act involving how much milking they can achieve before the final month.

This is only easy in a stable market. There are still so many cards in the hand of miners that there can be a huge influx on the 2nd hand market. Of course, there are always people who will only ever buy new, but losing both the people who are going to wait for the new gen and the people who are fine with 2nd hand, can require a huge price drop, if the stocks are still very high.

 

[jpiniero]

What 4090 delay rumors are you going by? I dont necessarily see that. They may be trying to move GA102 inventory more agressively precisely because 4090 is on schedule (Sept/Oct). Your guess in the dark is no better than anyone elses guess in the dark at this stage.

The rumors that they were originally launching around now actually. It would also be unusual for them to launch one product and not anything else for 3 months as well, if we are talking about nothing but the 4090 until at least CES.

 

[moonbogg]

Anyone telling gamers to buy overpriced new cards right now to help Nvidia beat the used GPU flood can pound sand. Shameful. Gamers got stomped on for the past two years but now the fun's over for Nvidia and the AIBs with their stupidly high crypto prices. The people who did the stomping have a few cards left that they can't sell, and now industry shills are commanding gamers to bail out Nvidia and the AIBs by bending over so they have a profitable place to shove those last remaining cards. Don't do it. CLENCH and HOLD!

 

[maddie]

Anyone telling gamers to buy overpriced new cards right now to help Nvidia beat the used GPU flood can pound sand. Shameful. Gamers got stomped on for the past two years but now the fun's over for Nvidia and the AIBs with their stupidly high crypto prices. The people who did the stomping have a few cards left that they can't sell, and now industry shills are commanding gamers to bail out Nvidia and the AIBs by bending over so they have a profitable place to shove those last remaining cards. Don't do it. CLENCH and HOLD!

I don't think I can forgive you for planting that thought in my mind.

 

[moonbogg]

I don't think I can forgive you for planting that thought in my mind.

Think of it like a Pez dispenser, but in reverse.

 

[aigomorla]

Don't do it. CLENCH and HOLD!

Sorry im already 1 behind AdamK47 in not getting a Ti.
I don't intend to lose on the 4090s.
Plus, a 4090 probably won't be the priciest thing on my list, as this year i intend to upgrade my HEDT platform, and also try to secure the new Samsung Arc monitor when it comes out.

Im fairly sure that will put me ahead of adam, for a couple of weeks at best.