Question are video card prices headed down yet?

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GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
4,127
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Right. miners are at fault for global chip shortage. They are to blame for the insane car prices. Common. The shortage affects chips that have nothing to do with mining. Miners are just a easy excuse without having to do actual research. COVID and increased demand for electronics factor in way more. Then that China had to stop production regularly due to either COVID or too much pollution or not enough power (which I see is ironic and of course you will again blame the miners for).

OEMs had no problems getting GPUs for their gaming laptops or prebuilts. Yes new consoles are hard to get too but the sold about 30 mio of them in 2021.

We can actual see that GPU shipemnts are far lower than in previous years:

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/jpr-q3-2021-desktop-discrete-gpu-shipments, in some cases half the units!!! compared to 2018 per quarter.
- That chart isn't really showing what you claim it's showing.

Card shipments peaked in 2017, then dropped way down in 2018 despite their being no Logistics/part shortages/Covid at the time. Shipments during Covid were actually higher than the 2018/2019 period and more in line with historical norms, when there were no card shortages.

You're right that miners certainly aren't the *only* reason for the increased prices, but they are a major factor. Of course folks with money to burn scalping cards as well as folks with money to burn buying them caused a whole host of issues, as well as increased WFH demands (which really should have sent gaming laptop prices to the moon... but curiously didn't) but mining farms that required their own power generation station or warehouses stuffed with mining NV cards certainly contributed to the issue.

As was stated earlier, mining operations are sort of freakish outliers because there doesn't really have to be a lot of them for them to make a huge dent in global supply given every card they buy was basically a guaranteed return on investment. So you could have 10K or 20K cards "per miner" which is certainly not a normally occurring phenomena. Those cards would have individually gone into 10-20K different gaming rigs,

Even if only 1% of those potential 10K card holders go and bitch n moan on the internet, that's a 100 users going around moaning about lack of supply, which eventually changes the zeitgeist around the moment and amplifies the perception of mining related shortages.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,042
1,349
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There are other factors sure. But the fact that people can now buy cards for near MSRP prices just as crypto values drop is not a coincidence
Larry already pointed it out but by this logic prices should skyrocket again right now since crypto has gone up by 20-50% in the last week.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,451
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3090Ti on ebay for 3-$5000. Every last one of them got botted and scalped and everyone is fine with this. It's a pricing test run. People voted with their wallets and now the new flagship price is officially $2000 at an absolute minimum. Nice job! Here's to hoping the RTX 4060 is only $1000.
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
8,471
1,800
136
www.teamjuchems.com
3090Ti on ebay for 3-$5000. Every last one of them got botted and scalped and everyone is fine with this. It's a pricing test run. People voted with their wallets and now the new flagship price is officially $2000 at an absolute minimum. Nice job! Here's to hoping the RTX 4060 is only $1000.
Yeah, I am not banking that much on the next gen cards bringing us incredible value. Just enjoy the drops now and get what you want.

I know it was panned earlier in this thread, but really my 6800 is great for 2k gaming at 100+ FPS. Given that this is console+ performance it might have the staying power of my old 290X if I can keep myself from impulse buying :D
 
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Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
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Except, prices of both BTC and ETH are on the rise again this week, and yet GPU prices continue to fall, just as GPU mfg's predicted that they would, as the the "shortage" comes to an end.
Well, miners have a biased opinion when it comes to mining.

GPU prices are not going to skyrocket the very second crypto values go up. Anybody with even basic knowledge on economics knows that there is an ebb and flow to the market. Very little is immediate.

But even without this delayed reaction, miners are unlikely to get back into buying GPUs right now. Yes they may get a few more weeks, maybe even a few months of mining before they are no longer able to. But they are not going to go and spend money on buying MORE cards that they won't be able to get an ROI on. If GPU XYZ has a ROI of X months to break even, and there is roughly Y months left (where Y is less than X), they aren't going to buy cards. And yes, there are alt coins that can still be mined. But until one of them becomes the all in coin like eth was, mining is going to be in a major slump.

This is common sense. Nobody believes a miner that says "LOOK, ETH has gone UP, but GPU prices are DOWN! SEE, we miners aren't the cause!" Because its a biased opinion that totally ignores the facts of the situation.
 
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Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
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You're right. 1024x768 at 16bit color was around 4.5MB of VRAM. Since SLI worked by rendering half the lines of resolution, each card only needed 2.25MB of VRAM when using SLI. Both cards had a 4MB z-buffer and 4MB (8MB for the 12MB version) of VRAM for the frame buffer as I recall. Probably remember playing Quake 2 at 1024x768 on my Voodoo 3 most likely.

Side note - I have a Voodoo 3 3000 PCI as a backup card for the Voodoo 4 4500 AGP I have in my retro box.
Yeah, 800x600 was the max res for a single 8MB Voodoo 2 (which I have one). I also have a 12MB Voodoo 2, which was still limited to 800x600 for a single card, but could play with higher detail settings.
 
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VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
53,723
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Well, miners have a biased opinion when it comes to mining.
Which one of my three factual statements was incorrect. Let's dissect this.

1) BTC and ETC are up right now. BTC is hitting 47500, ETH is over 3000, both numbers that they haven't been able to reach for some months prior.
2) GPU prices are coming down. Hard. Also, the USA has re-instituted Tarriff exemptions on GPUs and PCBs, leading to another potential 25% decline in the retail price(s) of GPU that we haven't even seen yet.
3) Both AMD and Nvidia stated months ago that by Q2-Q3 of 2022, the GPU production shortage in the market would largely be over.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
53,723
7,984
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GPU prices are not going to skyrocket the very second crypto values go up. Anybody with even basic knowledge on economics knows that there is an ebb and flow to the market. Very little is immediate.
When rumors of a small power blackout at a DRAM mfg plant in TW, cause DRAM pricing at Newegg across the board to jump 10%, I'm not really sure that I can believe your statement, that street pricing changes aren't close to immediate.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,430
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Which one of my three factual statements was incorrect. Let's dissect this.

1) BTC and ETC are up right now. BTC is hitting 47500, ETH is over 3000, both numbers that they haven't been able to reach for some months prior.
2) GPU prices are coming down. Hard. Also, the USA has re-instituted Tarriff exemptions on GPUs and PCBs, leading to another potential 25% decline in the retail price(s) of GPU that we haven't even seen yet.
3) Both AMD and Nvidia stated months ago that by Q2-Q3 of 2022, the GPU production shortage in the market would largely be over.
The question to ask here is if #3 is true because AMD and Nvidia have finally ramped up production to meet demand, or because crypto mining farms stopped buying high-end video cards by the pallet load. It's probably a mix of both, and I don't expect AMD or Nvidia to fess up and admit who's really been buying up their cards over the past 18 months.

If I know that I might not be able to mine Ethereum with a GPU anymore after June 2022, I'm going to stop ordering cards well before then so I don't get stuck with a glut of inventory that I can't unload profitably.
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,687
1,278
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Yeah, 800x600 was the max res for a single 8MB Voodoo 2 (which I have one). I also have a 12MB Voodoo 2, which was still limited to 800x600 for a single card, but could play with higher detail settings.
I almost feel like digging out the old Voodoo2 and Banshee for a test drive... :cool:
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
4,127
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The question to ask here is if #3 is true because AMD and Nvidia have finally ramped up production to meet demand, or because crypto mining farms stopped buying high-end video cards by the pallet load. It's probably a mix of both, and I don't expect AMD or Nvidia to fess up and admit who's really been buying up their cards over the past 18 months.

If I know that I might not be able to mine Ethereum with a GPU anymore after June 2022, I'm going to stop ordering cards well before then so I don't get stuck with a glut of inventory that I can't unload profitably.
- Didn't NV get into trouble recently exactly for that reason? Telling their shareholders that a lot of their GPU profits during the second mining boom ~2017 was the result of gaming, but when those "gamers" failed to materialize to buy the 2xxx series in droves the shareholders sued?

I don't think anything really came of that suite but it serves as a cautionary tail nonetheless.

Or not NV was back at it saying ASPs were up $300 per card recently thanks to "gamers" again, but that wasn't at a regulated event it was just at a trade show so a little tacky but not illegal.

Ok, bunch of stuff pops up, here is the first hit:

.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
11,829
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I should point out that nVidia GPUs at least are still very high. They are available and getting cheaper but it's not like they are anywhere close to MSRP. Europe might be a different story because I believe electricity is a lot more expensive in most countries there so mining might not be profitable.

The AMD competitive cards are closer to the MSRP but they are much worse at mining than Ampere. I bet if AMD was selling new Polaris or Vega it'd be tough to get.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,042
1,349
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I don't expect AMD or Nvidia to fess up and admit who's really been buying up their cards over the past 18 months.
They don't even know because they sell chips and not cards. The AIBs sell the card and it was them sending pallets from the factory to miners and likley hiding that fact from AMD/NV.
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,687
1,278
136
Europe might be a different story because I believe electricity is a lot more expensive in most countries there so mining might not be profitable.
You can say that again. You'd loose money trying to mine here with current pricing.

It's also an ineffective heatsource, so there isn't even the bonus of "free" (at least cheaper) home heating. Much better to put that electricity though the heatpump.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,042
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According to videcardz AMD is now selling some custom mining cards based on broken PS5 APUs. I put that in the good news category if it prevents miners from buying real dGPUs.
 
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Golgatha

Lifer
Jul 18, 2003
12,208
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We seem to be at a point where the supply chain has to reconcile itself with these new prices and where they have to shift focus to the lower end cards.

Basically, the entire supply chain upped their prices to take advantage, so the shops pay high prices to the board partners, who pay high prices to Nvidia/AMD. Shops can't structurally go below the prices they buy the cards for. With cards now piling up at the shops, they are putting pressure on the board partners to lower the prices, who in turn put pressure on Nvidia. Asus seems to have taken the lead in reducing the prices. Other board partners will now have to respond.

An issue here is that many shops have supply that they bought at higher prices and they are reluctant to sell these at a loss. So they often want to keep the prices too high for the actual market situation, until they have sold their expensively bought in cards. Yet by keeping the prices high, they suppress demand, so it takes longer for their old stock to sell. However, some sellers with little stock are able to pass on those lower prices quickly. That's what I'm seeing right now, with some shops asking very high prices still and then others having much better prices, but selling their stock fairly quickly.

Nvidia seems to be mostly producing 3070's and up, with very low supply of 3060 and 3050's, which keeps the prices of those cards relatively high. So Nvidia will also need to start producing more lower end cards, which will take a while.

Anyway, very good news is that the Ethereum people seem to have created enough diversity with the validation clients that are used to not have to hold up the merge over this. So there are no apparent barriers for Proof of Stake in June (but they still have to do more work and issues may arise).
This and I've not seen a single non-ti 3070 or 3080 (10GB not the ti priced 12GB variant) in stock for months. Gotta keep the average selling price up for the shareholders right?!
 

Shivansps

Diamond Member
Sep 11, 2013
3,625
1,306
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The question to ask here is if #3 is true because AMD and Nvidia have finally ramped up production to meet demand, or because crypto mining farms stopped buying high-end video cards by the pallet load. It's probably a mix of both, and I don't expect AMD or Nvidia to fess up and admit who's really been buying up their cards over the past 18 months.

If I know that I might not be able to mine Ethereum with a GPU anymore after June 2022, I'm going to stop ordering cards well before then so I don't get stuck with a glut of inventory that I can't unload profitably.
As with most stuff, its a combination of things, AMD and Nvidia shifted too much focus towards mobile, AMD descontinued Polaris at a bad time, huge demand spike across the board for electronics caused shortages and a forced reduction in production and then the mining craze hit at the worst time possible. In addition of that, there was the scalping issue on some countries.

The problem now is that both AMD and Nvidia knows that people are willing to pay a lot more for their stuff...
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
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As with most stuff, its a combination of things, AMD and Nvidia shifted too much focus towards mobile, AMD descontinued Polaris at a bad time, huge demand spike across the board for electronics caused shortages and a forced reduction in production and then the mining craze hit at the worst time possible. In addition of that, there was the scalping issue on some countries.

The problem now is that both AMD and Nvidia knows that people are willing to pay a lot more for their stuff...
Are we really willing to pay more, though? Maybe the crypto miners were, but I'm personally not willing to spend more than $500 on a graphics card for gaming.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
16,336
1,723
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Are we really willing to pay more, though? Maybe the crypto miners were, but I'm personally not willing to spend more than $500 on a graphics card for gaming.
It depends on how well it performs. I would rather pay $600 for a card that doubled the performance from last gen, than I would pay $500 for one that increased performance with 50%.

As I have said before, it seems like the next gen top end cards are tapping into the now non-existing SLI/CF market. Which to me is fine, as long as I can get cards a tier below that are ~20-30% faster than 6800XT/3080 with a MSRP ~$600-700. :)
 
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Aapje

Senior member
Mar 21, 2022
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The problem now is that both AMD and Nvidia knows that people are willing to pay a lot more for their stuff...
I think that a lot of people lack basic understanding of economic theory and thus draw wrong conclusions like this. AMD and Nvidia already knew that some people are willing to pay more, but they couldn't take advantage of this in the past and they won't be able to in the future. Let me explain why.

The demand side consists of many potential buyers, who each have a different maximum price that they are willing to pay. In the relative short term, it tends to cost more money to supply more product. So the sellers set the price to a point there is exactly as much demand as supply. This results in the famous economic supply and demand graph:



You have people who are willing to buy at a very high prices and people who only want to buy at a very low price. The higher the price becomes, the fewer people become willing to buy (and vice versa). So at the market price, there are many people who think that the price is cheaper than what they want to pay and also many people who think that the price is more expensive than they want to pay. However, the sellers cannot simply benefit from the people who are willing to pay more by raising the price, because they will be stuck with warehouses full of cards. Of course, Nvidia could then reduce production, but then in a normal market, AMD would benefit by increasing their production. This will benefit AMD less than it would benefit Nvidia if AMD didn't do this, but AMD doesn't care about Nvidia's profits.

There is a way for both AMD and Nvidia to profit by keeping the prices high, which is price fixing. Then they both agree to produce less than they could, creating an artificial shortage. Of course, this is very much illegal and results in big fines if found out. It also requires the ability to keep out new competitors like Intel.

There are all kinds of legal ways to earn more money. For example, market differentiation. Having cards at different performance levels and price means that the sellers can get more money from the customers who are willing to pay more, but without losing all business from customers who have a lower budget. The manufacturers will even downgrade cards to a lower performance to do this, rather than ask a lower price for their better cards.

Some other examples are nurturing brand loyalty and having different designs, where people are willing to pay more because the card has a certain brand name on it or the card is white or otherwise has a design that they like.

All of the tricks to get as much money from people as possible have their limits. If Nvidia starts to ask 1 billion dollar per card, then even the greatest fanboy will switch to AMD. So as soon as the shortages go away, Nvidia and AMD can only use the tricks they used before the shortages, with about the same effect on the prices. We can still expect higher prices due to higher cost of manufacture and shipping, for a while, but nothing really excessive. It's certainly not true that Nvidia and AMD can simply set the prices that they would like.

What actually matters for us as customers, aside from shortages, is the price/performance of the cards and especially, how close the competitors are. The greater the gap between Nvidia and AMD in performance, the less the ability for the lesser competitor to undercut the other, so the company with the better product can then ask for higher prices.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Best Buy sold the 3070 FE @ MSRP ($499) yesterday... for a few minutes anyway... and course you would need their subscription plan I bet.
 

RnR_au

Senior member
Jun 6, 2021
458
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Does anyone know of a noctua mod summary website? Ie which gpus's are fine, and which ones are not?

I suspect that noctua mods will reign supreme shortly on 2nd hand mining cards. Might even cause a shortage of noctua fans...
 
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