Question are video card prices headed down yet?

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Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
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I mean I guess Russia could buy from China, but with what money? Rubles?

Oh wait I guess they can finally use all that Crypto for something...
Not money. Gold. Old fashion Gold. They do have substantial reserves, and mine the stuff themselves. I'd bet the Chinese would like some of it if it came to that.

Of course, the value proposition might be iffy, but it might be worth it for critical infrastructure.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,463
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Well, prices are definitely coming down. This XFX 6700XT has been in stock today for $600 pretty much all day. While still too high for what it is, it's a definitive improvement, and I believe it will only get better as ETH goes PoS.
Imagine having "bit the bullet" and bought a 6700 XT for a grand like two weeks ago lol. At this stage, that card should be regularly on sale for $400 and $300 max on ebay. You still got miners filling their garage from floor to ceiling with these things not even caring that it will take 3 years to break even if mining stays the same. Eyes glazed over, brain turned off, mouth foaming violently.
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,301
1,809
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Imagine having "bit the bullet" and bought a 6700 XT for a grand like two weeks ago lol. At this stage, that card should be regularly on sale for $400 and $300 max on ebay. You still got miners filling their garage from floor to ceiling with these things not even caring that it will take 3 years to break even if mining stays the same. Eyes glazed over, brain turned off, mouth foaming violently.
I actually believe current card "surplus" is due to declining demand from miners. I think ETH being 50% off from ATH and reality of ETH PoS merge is finally setting in and miners are finally wising up and no longer snatching up cards the way they used to. There is still pent up demand from gamers which is what helps keep prices afloat for now, but once ETH goes PoS the floodgates will open and prices will plummet. To be honest, if I was a small/medium size miner, I'd start selling cards now before the Zerg Rush. I mean during the great firesale of 2018 you could get used cards on ebay for half off MSRP. Right now, I'm just patiently waiting on a chance to snag a good 6800XT for cheap when it happens. If all things align, end of 2022 is going to be awesome, firesales on current gen videocards and Zen3.
 
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Shmee

Memory and Storage, Graphics Cards
Super Moderator
Sep 13, 2008
6,032
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Hmm, I wonder if I should sell one or both of my 5700XT cards soon. They still fetch good prices, but the problem is that might leave one or more house computers without a capable gaming card for a while. If I could sell one of them and then upgrade it right away while still profiting, or at least not losing much for a decent upgrade, it would make sense. But I wouldn't want to risk not being able to replace a gaming card, especially having a LAN party coming up.
 

aigomorla

Cases and Cooling Mod PC Gaming Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 28, 2005
19,622
1,999
126
Hmm, I wonder if I should sell one or both of my 5700XT cards soon.
I would probably unload it if it wasn't needed.
I would then put it in a fund for a 4090 and wait and see.
I am probably going to get a 4090 and move my 3090 down to mining duty or possibly sell it down to my cousin's who are all eyeing it as we speak now.

But the only old cards i am keeping are my 1660 Supers, as they are probably the most efficient cards i have for mining.
I should slowly swap them out for 6600XT's since now they are cheaper, but i really am not inclined to put money into my crypto farm, as its more for entertainment, then a subsidized income.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,463
2,563
136
I wouldn't expect to be able to buy a 4000 series until a good 6 months after release, and that's assuming mining has been absolutely dead for months before that. The demand is going to be laughably massive. The kind of thing where you know there's no chance, so you just sit back and watch the madness. Of course, you could always grab a 4090 off ebay for $6000 if you're OK with that.
Also, when it comes to mining, why doesn't someone just make another Ethereum-like coin? People act like it's real or something. I'd imagine the same guys could easily just make another one and call it Derpthereum or something, no?
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
4,144
2,796
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I wouldn't expect to be able to buy a 4000 series until a good 6 months after release, and that's assuming mining has been absolutely dead for months before that. The demand is going to be laughably massive. The kind of thing where you know there's no chance, so you just sit back and watch the madness. Of course, you could always grab a 4090 off ebay for $6000 if you're OK with that.
Also, when it comes to mining, why doesn't someone just make another Ethereum-like coin? People act like it's real or something. I'd imagine the same guys could easily just make another one and call it Derpthereum or something, no?
- When the 4xxx series starts sitting on store shelves is when the 3xxx used card prices will start drifting back down to reality.

For me, anything 3060Ti/6600xt and up is already a huge upgrade. I don't even need or care about the 4xxx series at this point, just getting my hands on something from the current gen at a reasonable price would square me away for the next 5 years.
 

GunsMadeAmericaFree

Senior member
Jan 23, 2007
762
106
106
>>during the great firesale of 2018 you could get used cards on ebay for half off MSRP.

Huh, I hadn't realized that prices were down so much at that time. That happened to be when I needed a couple of 4GB low power (<50 watts) video cards for a couple of systems I wanted to upgrade. Now I finally understand why these RX 550's that I bought are STILL selling for more than I paid, even 3 and a half years later. So you're predicting a similar price crash on video cards coming up in the next year or so?
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,463
2,563
136
>>during the great firesale of 2018 you could get used cards on ebay for half off MSRP.

Huh, I hadn't realized that prices were down so much at that time. That happened to be when I needed a couple of 4GB low power (<50 watts) video cards for a couple of systems I wanted to upgrade. Now I finally understand why these RX 550's that I bought are STILL selling for more than I paid, even 3 and a half years later. So you're predicting a similar price crash on video cards coming up in the next year or so?
Imagine if Derpthereum actually goes proof of steak. Even the most well-seasoned, eye-glazed miners will realize that to turn their ENORMOUS mining rigs on means nothing more than paying a huge electric bill for absolutely no return. The GPUs will be completely useless to them. Now they have to time when to sell, and the longer they wait, the less they will make. If Derpthereum 2.0 becomes a certainty, some are predicting a gigantic GPU tsunami will hit the used market unlike anything we've ever seen. Think about it; almost the entire generation of RTX 3000 series cards are in mining rigs right now. If mining suddenly becomes totally pointless, those cards are a liability and nothing else. If it all works out like it should, you'd likely find 3080's for half msrp, especially with superior or equivalent 4000 series lower to mid range cards with lower msrp than the 3080 had. The 3080s will be used cards, and in a sane market you can't charge msrp for a used product.
When the 3000 series was about to launch, RTX 2080ti's were $400 (only 1/3 of msrp), and that was without a massive GPU flood from a burst mining bubble. It could be epic for gamers everywhere.
 

igor_kavinski

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2020
3,865
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It could be epic for gamers everywhere.
I'm skeptical. What's to stop miners from living off of the tangible assets they have acquired from selling crypto and keep on hanging to their GPU stash? There might be a little price drop but not really a half MSRP one. They all know by now that GPUs have value so they won't devalue their assets by flooding the market with them. They will release them bit by bit, to keep gamers thirsting for more.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
53,783
8,019
126
I'm skeptical. What's to stop miners from living off of the tangible assets they have acquired from selling crypto and keep on hanging to their GPU stash? There might be a little price drop but not really a half MSRP one. They all know by now that GPUs have value so they won't devalue their assets by flooding the market with them. They will release them bit by bit, to keep gamers thirsting for more.
Your post seems to surmise that miners act together in concert, or something, "won't devalue their assets by flooding the market with them"... well, the earlier they sell them coming off of these inflated prices, the more that they can get for them, thus sell pressure starting up. Good old competition against your neighbors.

Also, if they could continue to mine, they probably would. There are some YouTube "studies" (ok, using that term very loosely here, and not in the scientific sense), showing that mining while in a bear market yields more coin, and thus HODLing until the next (usually higher than before!) peak, will yield the best profits. That's if you can afford to subsidize the power that your mining rigs take, which may not be possible for many people.

Especially in Europe, where electric power costs are increasing (doubling!) in the very near future (even before the Ukraine thing.)
 

igor_kavinski

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2020
3,865
2,332
106
Someone needs to make a simulator to predict GPU prices in tandem with current crypto prices as well as overall mining activity. Maybe there is something like that out there that the miners are using? Something on the Dark Web?
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,695
1,283
136
Especially in Europe, where electric power costs are increasing (doubling!) in the very near future (even before the Ukraine thing.)
Only doubling? You'll be lucky. Try tripling. Even quadrupling in some cases. Further, spot prices can be even higher then that.

I went from paying 0.46DKK per KWh (ex. taxes and VAT) last spring to paying 1.55DKK now. I'm expecting that to rise to ~2.00DKK next quarter. Luckily we're entering spring so we're getting more solar and using less power for heating, but next winter will be an absolute ****show. Not looking forward to that.
 
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DeathReborn

Platinum Member
Oct 11, 2005
2,508
432
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Only doubling? You'll be lucky. Try tripling. Even quadrupling in some cases. Further, spot prices can be even higher then that.

I went from paying 0.46DKK per KWh (ex. taxes and VAT) last spring to paying 1.55DKK now. I'm expecting that to rise to ~2.00DKK next quarter. Luckily we're entering spring so we're getting more solar and using less power for heating, but next winter will be an absolute ****show. Not looking forward to that.
Luckily I got a fixed price locked in for 18 months last September (14.65p per KWh), just before prices began to really climb. The same tariff now is 38.30p per KWh, that is expected to climb to over 70p in a few months time. Even at my low rates I am still spending around £1,300 a year for 2 people. On the flip side, GPU's have dropped in price, still around 50% over MSRP in most cases though.
 

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