Are states falsely reporting covid numbers?

[Scarpozzi]

Democrat vs Republican states have a stark contrast in numbers reported. This goes for both covid cases and accompanying deaths. It's been the case since they started counting cases and the Trump administration has further skewed the numbers in favor of the agenda to keep the economy going. While I don't fault them for their attempts to keep the nation afloat financially, I do fault them for withholding information and skewing data from the general public. That is the worst kind of fraud because of the public safety and right to know implications.

In case I get hit by a bus, someone please follow-up on this in a few years when we can look at average state death rates to get an idea of how many covid deaths each state likely had this year. There is a bit of reporting lag on that sort of thing. You should be able to calculate it by taking the average number of deaths vs population over a 5 year period per state and comparing them to 2020's numbers.

It should at least make it more clear to see that something caused more deaths, even though there may not be a direct proof that it was covid.

I don't trust the current reporting structure. Can anyone think of a better way to calculate how many people are actually affected?

 

[MomentsofSanity]

We can look at excess deaths now. It’s quite pronounced.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Scarpozzi]

We can look at excess deaths now. It’s quite pronounced.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

But those would be the ones identified by states as covid deaths and reported to the cdc (or data harvested/collected). I'm referring to the excess deaths that aren't reported. Annual deaths for many states aren't reported until after the year is over and sometimes there's significant lag to those reports.

Btw...I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I believe there are some significantly higher deaths due to covid...but probably quite a staggering drop in traffic related deaths this year too. Maybe even less flu or other communicable diseases for those who are masking up.

 

[dawp]

that's one of the running theories from the right, that there aren't as many covid deaths as listed in the media and the numbers are being padded to make trump look bad. and covid will magically disappear after the election.

 

[ch33zw1z]

that's one of the running theories from the right, that there aren't as many covid deaths as listed in the media and the numbers are being padded to make trump look bad. and covid will magically disappear after the election.

I think there are some states going the other way with it too

 

[purbeast0]

This is 100% anecdotal and I cannot know for fact if there is any truth to this or not, but my brother is a DC firefighter and told me this past weekend that he knows some guy that has told him that he has seen number skewing first hand. This guy sees reports of people who have died all the time and he said that there are people who are dying in car accidents but the cause of death is being labeled as covid.

 

[ch33zw1z]

This is 100% anecdotal and I cannot know for fact if there is any truth to this or not, but my brother is a DC firefighter and told me this past weekend that he knows some guy that has told him that he has seen number skewing first hand. This guy sees reports of people who have died all the time and he said that there are people who are dying in car accidents but the cause of death is being labeled as covid.

I dunno how true that is. These types of fears seem to stem from accusations of number fudging due to how hospitals bill medicare specifically. Not that private insurers are paying out more for covid deaths regardless of other factors.

I've hand at least two other people say similar things, and I asked for proof, not just he said she said, but I'm still waiting on the links.

 

[dawp]

This is 100% anecdotal and I cannot know for fact if there is any truth to this or not, but my brother is a DC firefighter and told me this past weekend that he knows some guy that has told him that he has seen number skewing first hand. This guy sees reports of people who have died all the time and he said that there are people who are dying in car accidents but the cause of death is being labeled as covid.

that's what I'm hearing too but there is nothing to back it up other than other people stating the same thing with no proof.

 

[interchange]

The anecdotal conspiracies are BS. "Seen it first hand" often becomes "according to a guy I talked to at the hospital" when asked about. Regardless, even if it has happened, for it to be meaningful would require widespread fraud committed independently by many people with no direct benefit. Much more plausible that books get cooked internally. That could be committed by perhaps as few as one person with a clearer motivation to do so. Still, it seems implausible to me. Speculation of fraud with no evidence of any kind isn't worth indulging much.

 

[PlanetJosh]

It's enough to make a Repub so distrustful that he or she marches right out to the nearest bar, crowed beach, etc.

 

[sandorski]

The anecdotal conspiracies are BS. "Seen it first hand" often becomes "according to a guy I talked to at the hospital" when asked about. Regardless, even if it has happened, for it to be meaningful would require widespread fraud committed independently by many people with no direct benefit. Much more plausible that books get cooked internally. That could be committed by perhaps as few as one person with a clearer motivation to do so. Still, it seems implausible to me. Speculation of fraud with no evidence of any kind isn't worth indulging much.

The Old, "Cadillacs full of T-Bones bought with Food Stamps" routine.

 

[hal2kilo]

I think there are some states going the other way with it too

Cough, Florida.

 

[vi edit]

For every 1 car accident mislabeled, there's probably 100 excess "pneumonia" deaths. Texas, GA, FL have not been honest on that, at all.

 

[Scarpozzi]

For every 1 car accident mislabeled, there's probably 100 excess "pneumonia" deaths. Texas, GA, FL have not been honest on that, at all.

That was my point. A few key cities with relatively high population density had some famous folks pass this year and the cause of death was reported as heart-related, or not explained. If the individual is pronounced dead at the scene, they may not bother doing an autopsy. Especially if the family doesn't want COVID associated with the individual. (as it makes no difference at that point)

Anyhow, you can see a disconnect in the number of reported cases vs the number of reported deaths across states. I've not looked much since July, but the range was <1% mortality rate vs 4%+ mortality rate on the number of reported cases. (assuming more cases exist that aren't reported, those numbers are skewed in 2 directions) But even then, there were obvious outliers in the South....I mean, they should have been reporting many more dead at the time based on the number of cases they claimed....but simply didn't.

We're definitely seeing a decline in cases because the number of hospitalizations are declining...pretty much everywhere. Masks are working. I'm hopeful that things will slow here, but even in my county, the numbers will be good for a few days, then spike for a few days. College, Nursing Homes, Prisons, etc are all contributing to keeping this thing going.

 

[vi edit]

Mortality gets weird when you look at in a vacuum. NYC and NJ simply got destroyed because of their density, a lack of available testing to tell them just how bad it was, an enormous burden on their health care infrastructure and we simply did not have the therapeutic information then that we do now.

Right now our case counts are still very bad, but it's much more spread out. High density areas are getting over the hump while smaller communities are seeing much higher spikes. The surge on hospitals is different, our testing is better to identify and isolate, and our ability to treat it is much more effective.

It's an evolution on our part on how to fight it. That said, we had almost half the states in the country post all time high cases, and that is *NOT* a good thing.

 

[ElFenix]

The Old, "Cadillacs full of T-Bones bought with Food Stamps" routine.

SHE HAD A WIC CARD AND THE LATEST IPHONE says the old guy who can't tell a galaxy from a blackberry

 

[HomerJS]

that's one of the running theories from the right, that there aren't as many covid deaths as listed in the media and the numbers are being padded to make trump look bad. and covid will magically disappear after the election.

It was supposed to magically disapear in April

 

[jman19]

It was supposed to magically disapear in April

Wait, it didn't disappear? But it got warm and stuff in the summer.

 

[skyking]

In the midst of my niece dying from cancer, my ex- brother in law went down and was in the ICU and dead within 12 hours. It looked exactly like covid, but the test was negative. At that time (May) we had little faith in those tests.
So there's an offsetting anecdotal example for you. I think there are many false negatives. Those will be borne out in the overall death rate, eventually.

 

[nickqt]

This is 100% anecdotal and I cannot know for fact if there is any truth to this or not, but my brother is a DC firefighter and told me this past weekend that he knows some guy that has told him that he has seen number skewing first hand. This guy sees reports of people who have died all the time and he said that there are people who are dying in car accidents but the cause of death is being labeled as covid.

My dog's cousins friend said something similar!

 

[SMOGZINN]

The thing to remember about these conspiracy theories is that there is no good reason for people to be falsely reporting COVID related deaths. The only way they get extra money for it is if the person was on Medicare. So, for this to be worth doing a doctor and his support staff would have to risk their own licenses and personal criminal liability in order to get a few thousand dollars extra that is going to cost them 10x that amount in the long run due to all the extra precautions they are going to have to take because of it. Medicare fraud does happen, but rarely on something as high profile and easy to catch as COVID.

At best you are seeing some coding mistakes on charts leading to a few false reports, but those should go both ways statistically evening out.

It is much more likely that any large scale misreporting is being done by that state itself, and that will be impossible to hide and with all the consequences of having a high COVID count. The truth is going to come out, and sooner rather than later. I would think it would be tantamount to suicide to be massively over reporting and causing unneeded lockdowns and social distancing requirements. The truth of the matter is that people will be upset if your administration under reported and caused unnecessary death, you might very well get kicked out of office. But over report and cause a loss of business, and even worse, to seriously inconvenience people for most of a year? They are going to come at you with pitchforks, and the wealthy are going to be handing them out.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Just wait for the next few decades where thousands of people will die seemingly randomly out of the blue and the fight over it being COVID related or from just being a modern American (heart disease, cancer, diabetes, alcoholism, opiates, meth, guns, etc).

My dog's cousins friend said something similar!

 

[Paratus]

Just wait for the next few decades where thousands of people will die seemingly randomly out of the blue and the fight over it being COVID related or from just being a modern American (heart disease, cancer, diabetes, alcoholism, opiates, meth, guns, etc).

Hope Ferris doesn’t have the ‘Rona