irishScott
Lifer
- Oct 10, 2006
- 21,562
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I say we stick to limited air support to protect the Kurds only. As much as I hate to see innocent people die, for the future of the others, the Middle East needs to resolve their own civil war. I say civil war because really this is just a gigantic Sunni and Shi'a conflict; they're all Arabs. If we go in and wipe the floor clean, another hate group will rise to fill the place of ISIS. If the Middle East resolves their own problems and learns that these groups are unacceptable, then they'll be squashed at the tribal level before they even have a chance to get off the ground.
People forget that part of the price Americans paid for our freedom included a very terrible and destructive civil war. That's the perspective we have. We don't want to go through that again. But other parts of the world haven't learned that yet. Despite their hatred towards us, every Middle Eastern country is expecting the United States to waltz in and resolve their problems. Do you see Saudi Arabia mobilizing to handle save their Arab brethren from ISIS? What's Jordan doing? Of course Iran and Turkey are going to stand on the sidelines, because they're not stupid. They're also not predominantly Arab.
Eventually they'll realize that this sectarian violence isn't worth it anymore. It's too bad they had to bring an actual demon in the midst to realize it.
It's not a matter of going through a civil war, Arabs, even in the days of the Islamic Empire, were never a cohesive entity. Muhommad managed to conquer or ally the tribes and start an empire, as did the Ottomons and some other empire builders, but at the core Arabs have always been a bunch of warring nomadic tribes. They just got lucky and struck oil, otherwise they'd still be a bunch of warring nomadic tribes.
What we're seing with ISIS, Sunni, Shia, etc isn't a civil war, it's primitive clan/tribal warfare. The only difference throuhgout history is that occaisionally one clan gains enough power to kill or subdue all the others in a given region.
And I'm convinced that it will be quite some time, possibly centuries, before the Arabs set aside sectarian violence as a whole. Remember the Sunni/Shia split and all the violence it causes today is soley due to a debate over the line of succession when Muhommad died in 632 AD. Nearly 1400 years later and they still haven't let it go.
The issue is Islam has had no enlightenment. It's an anachronistic holdover from the dark ages that hasn't contributed anything positive to modern society for centuries. The Koran also IIRC demands a theocracy in no uncertain terms, making secularization an impossible concept to a literalist Muslim. Turkey's come the closest and their form of secularization is tenuous and best, so tenuous that for decades enforcement of secularization was seen as the primary domestic function of the military.
Barring some Islamic enlightenment, I see the long-term future of Islam being rather bleak. Eventually they'll run out of oil, and at that point will be of no further value to the world. They'll slip back into primitive tribes living in a no-man's-land, occaisionally suffering a developed-world strike when they declare another retarded holy war. That or we'll have at least a half dozen more Arab springs of increasing magnitude after which the Arabs will finally get their shit together.
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