Are gas engines going to make a comeback?

[outtasite98]

I seen that Dodge will be coming back with the Hellcat engine. Who will follow you think? Sure electric is fast as hell but nothing can replace the real feel and sound of a V8 engine or bigger.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Short term, yes. Long term no.

Any company that thinks emissions are going to get looser rather than tighter is making a foolish bet IMO.

 

[outtasite98]

Short term, yes. Long term no.

Any company that thinks emissions are going to get looser rather than tighter is making a foolish bet IMO.

Yeah that would probably cost them billions in the long run by thinking emissions would stay loose.

 

[Mr.IncrediblyBored]

EV sales may stabilize at some percent of the market for a bit in the US until more, cheaper models come out. A huge amount of R&D money has shifted to electrics that's just not coming back. That will affect the number and quality of gas models in the future. People will move on from their gas guzzlers eventually when they compare the newest EVs to a shitty Dodge Durango that hasn't changed in 10 years on the same car lot.

 

[sdifox]

LoL no

 

[_Rick_]

If you can afford more than a second (new) car every couple of years, then you will most likely be able to afford to run them on low-volume fuel. But I would expect that the Chinese market will move first towards electric cars (I would guess they import a lot of fossil fuels from the developed world) and they will keep exporting them near cost to nearby economies. You can either chose to build better electric cars then them, and compete, or keep building combustion-driven cars at lower volumes to some select markets.

Currently the demand for roll-back is mostly because the car companies want to make some money without spending too much on development, after they established the belief that they cannot out-develop the Chinese by just selling electric cars - while previously they were the ones lobbying for the phase-out, expecting to be able to out-develop each other on the road to BEVs.

I guess one of the main killers of BEV was the failed push to L5 autonomy, which would have enabled seamless car-sharing, and instead of recharging on a long drive, you would just swap your luggage from one car into another. Without the subscription-model mobility, BEV are much less practical, because you need to build too many of them (making the raw materials more expensive), and you cannot make money out of them by overcharging for rides (making them expensive acquisitions, dependent on very localized/distributed charging infrastructure).

For fun driving (where sound and feel might matter), you will probably have to buy classics (or the equivalent of limited-run hyper-cars) in the near future, and run them on low-carbon fuel (which will hopefully establish an aftermarket for engine upgrades, to enable more E85/SAF conversions).

 

[WelshBloke]

I seen that Dodge will be coming back with the Hellcat engine. Who will follow you think? Sure electric is fast as hell but nothing can replace the real feel and sound of a V8 engine or bigger.

I mean if the American domestic car manufacturers what to commit suicide that's their choice I guess. The rest of the World is going to carry on developing EVs so you either tariff the shit out of foreign EVs and make America a sort of technology ghetto or just capitulate totally on domestic car manufacturing on a massive scale.
ICE cars are not the future, and I say that as someone that likes hooning around in a petrol powered manual car.

 

[NutBucket]

Government mandates can only go so far.
People are speaking with their wallets...and at least domestically the major demand is "satisfied" and buyers still want IC vehicles.
Realistically the only want to convince people to buy EVs is to make the money work...ie gas costs $10 a gallon.

 

[bbhaag]

Are gas engines going to make a comeback?

Did they ever fall out of fashion? I'm pretty sure 99.9999% of vehicles around the world use a form of internal combustion.

 

[sdifox]

Did they ever fall out of fashion? I'm pretty sure 99.9999% of vehicles around the world use a form of internal combustion.

This says 2.2 percent of all vehicles are EV

How Many Electric Cars in the World?

Many Electric Cars in the World? How Many Electric Cars in the US, How Many EVs in the UK, How Many Miles Do Electric Cars Last?

8billiontrees.com

 

[bbhaag]

This says 2.2 percent of all vehicles are EV

How Many Electric Cars in the World?

Many Electric Cars in the World? How Many Electric Cars in the US, How Many EVs in the UK, How Many Miles Do Electric Cars Last?

8billiontrees.com

 

[manly]

If you can afford more than a second (new) car every couple of years, then you will most likely be able to afford to run them on low-volume fuel. But I would expect that the Chinese market will move first towards electric cars (I would guess they import a lot of fossil fuels from the developed world) and they will keep exporting them near cost to nearby economies. You can either chose to build better electric cars then them, and compete, or keep building combustion-driven cars at lower volumes to some select markets.

Currently the demand for roll-back is mostly because the car companies want to make some money without spending too much on development, after they established the belief that they cannot out-develop the Chinese by just selling electric cars - while previously they were the ones lobbying for the phase-out, expecting to be able to out-develop each other on the road to BEVs.

I guess one of the main killers of BEV was the failed push to L5 autonomy, which would have enabled seamless car-sharing, and instead of recharging on a long drive, you would just swap your luggage from one car into another. Without the subscription-model mobility, BEV are much less practical, because you need to build too many of them (making the raw materials more expensive), and you cannot make money out of them by overcharging for rides (making them expensive acquisitions, dependent on very localized/distributed charging infrastructure).

For fun driving (where sound and feel might matter), you will probably have to buy classics (or the equivalent of limited-run hyper-cars) in the near future, and run them on low-carbon fuel (which will hopefully establish an aftermarket for engine upgrades, to enable more E85/SAF conversions).

China's auto market is already roughly half electrified (by new sales market share). It's the largest auto market in the world, so this trend isn't going backwards. Most of the world is cautiously allowing the entry of Chinese BEVs, so the days of ICE's dominance appear to be numbered. It doesn't mean that ICE will disappear soon, but you can look at Norway and China to see what a rapid market transition looks like. Although China has been a heavy importer of fossil fuels for a long time, their demand is no longer growing.

The Trump admin is waging an anti-BEV campaign for BS political reasons.

The slow adoption curve in the U.S. is fairly obvious to understand. Virtually all manufacturers tried to mimic Tesla's strategy of pushing BEVs as luxury autos, with fat profit margins. Tesla succeeded because they sold Model Ys and 3s in volume to upper middle class buyers. But that addressable market has its limits, as Tesla itself is already finding out. If automakers want to successfully sell BEVs in the U.S., they will have to sell mainstream models at attainable prices. In my estimation, Hyundia/Kia is the only one that's currently trying hard.

 

[sdifox]

View attachment 131326

2/0.00001=200,000

 

[_Rick_]

The slow adoption curve in the U.S. is fairly obvious to understand. Virtually all manufacturers tried to mimic Tesla's strategy of pushing BEVs as luxury autos, with fat profit margins. Tesla succeeded because they sold Model Ys and 3s in volume to upper middle class buyers. But that addressable market has its limits, as Tesla itself is already finding out. If automakers want to successfully sell BEVs in the U.S., they will have to sell mainstream models at attainable prices. In my estimation, Hyundia/Kia is the only one that's currently trying hard.

Renault keeps making decent euro-market cars. The Zoe was a good starting point, and now R4/R5 are making the tech either more usable or more cool.
But if your car needs to come with a 100kWh battery, there's no way you're able to make money on it, when selling it below 80k.

 

[manly]

Renault keeps making decent euro-market cars. The Zoe was a good starting point, and now R4/R5 are making the tech either more usable or more cool.
But if your car needs to come with a 100kWh battery, there's no way you're able to make money on it, when selling it below 80k.

This is hyperbole. Tesla made tons of profit selling mainstream-ish cars for around $58k, and their battery packs tend towards the larger side when compared to rest of world. Over the long-term, pack costs trend downward so clearly there is some profit to be made even if you're targeting the near-luxury market as Tesla has successfully done. Only U.S. land barge buyers need vehicles with 100 kWh batteries; most of RoW doesn't want those vehicles on their roads at all.

There are huge economies of scale in automaking and in the U.S. BEV market, only Tesla and HMG have been successful at it thus far. That doesn't preclude others from crashing the party but like I said, they're gonna have to change their entire thinking if they want to sell a lot of BEVs. Only if you presume that battery costs never go down any further would the pack costs be a significant barrier to profits.*

Quite obviously, the U.S. consumer is dragging its collective feet kicking and screaming from the transition to BEVs. For all we know, the status quo here could go on for a long time. In the rest of world, China's BEVs introduce a lot of market competition. Even if you slap a 20% tariff on them. And as you attested, the Euro market is much more interesting and I believe many consumers will decide the zero emissions future is now, not later.

* Analysts actually predict BEV and ICE price parity within 2 years:

EV battery prices are plummeting and that's great news for buyers

EV battery prices are plummeting, falling faster than most expected. This year will mark the steepest decline since 2017. With...

electrek.co

 

[NutBucket]

I still think it is an uphill battle without wider availability of home charging. Not easy for older homes or apartment dwellers.

 

[Fenixgoon]

I still think it is an uphill battle without wider availability of home charging. Not easy for older homes or apartment dwellers.

home charging is fantastic, but public charging availability on the scale of gas stations is what will make things work.

no one worries about not having gas - because stations are EVERYWHERE. of course, we built that infrastructure over the last 125 years. a combustion vehicle at the height of the horse probability looked like the dumbest thing ever (and a toy for the rich, niche, and/or prvilieged). the same is true for EVs and charging right now. they are slowly starting to become affordable and ubiquitous - particularly on the used market - and home charging will make that even easier. but the infrastructure is really the key.

 

[thedarkwolf]

Walmart is starting to roll out their DC fast chargers now, that will help a lot.

Old homes don't have an issue charging a car. My house is old and has 100amp service so I just have to be realistic about how many amps I can feed it. Currently that is 16amp because I'm sharing a dryer outlet and playing it safe. If I ever bother running a dedicated line I'd probably do 30amps. I just charge at work most of the time anyway but even there I'm only charging at 24amps. Just because a car can charge at X amps doesn't mean you have too and you have all night if not longer to do it.

 

[sandorski]

No. The US can embrace Road Warrior if it wants. The rest of us will move along to what is better.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Walmart is starting to roll out their DC fast chargers now, that will help a lot.

Old homes don't have an issue charging a car. My house is old and has 100amp service so I just have to be realistic about how many amps I can feed it. Currently that is 16amp because I'm sharing a dryer outlet and playing it safe. If I ever bother running a dedicated line I'd probably do 30amps. I just charge at work most of the time anyway but even there I'm only charging at 24amps. Just because a car can charge at X amps doesn't mean you have too and you have all night if not longer to do it.

Walmart has big plans for EV charging, which is super smart.

My local Walmarts both have DCFC and they're great if I need a few extra miles while I'm on the go. Otherwise, I can charge at work or at home.

 

[manly]

Chinese BEVs are rapidly gaining market share in Europe.

When Ford CEO Jim Farley test-drove a Xiaomi SU7 last year, he was blown away by what $30,000 buys in China: a sedan that accelerates faster than many Porsches, with a giant touch screen that controls your house lights and a built-in AI assistant. "It's fantastic," he said on a podcast. "I don't want to give it up."

China won the EV race. Trump won't change that

The gap between Chinese and American EVs keeps widening. Trump's tariffs won't change that. They'll just make Americans the last to know what they're missing

qz.com

 

[Fenixgoon]

Chinese BEVs are rapidly gaining market share in Europe.

China won the EV race. Trump won't change that

The gap between Chinese and American EVs keeps widening. Trump's tariffs won't change that. They'll just make Americans the last to know what they're missing

qz.com

Not surprising. And I don't mean that in a pejorative way. China heavily invested in BEVs and is really seeing the results not just domestically but globally.

 

[lxskllr]

How are the Chinese cars over time? Everything's great when it's new. Do they have good reliability?

 

[sdifox]

I have seen teardown video and I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole