April jobs report

[gothuevos]

Economy adds 266K jobs in April, far below expectations

The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent, an unexpectedly poor showing falling well below expectations.The meager showing exposed unexpected gaps i…

thehill.com

Only 266k, far short of the million+ that were expected (maybe too optimistic). Unemployment up a tick, March numbers actually revised down 15%.

Blip on the radar or something more? Luckily still far out from any elections but a continued poor showing will almost assuredly hand the GOP the midterms and 2024. Stay tuned, I guess.

 

[K1052]

Pundit twitter is rushing all in on the UI narrative...while the hospitality jobs sector they were all pointing at for weeks as proof of a bad UI bonus effect posts healthy growth in the same report.

Primary factors from where I'm sitting more likely to be: lack of childcare/in person school, April bump in COVID infections, most benefits of vaccination campaign still to come, vast majority of office workers still on WFH.

 

[Commodus]

Economy adds 266K jobs in April, far below expectations

The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent, an unexpectedly poor showing falling well below expectations.The meager showing exposed unexpected gaps i…

thehill.com

Only 266k, far short of the million+ that were expected (maybe too optimistic). Unemployment up a tick, March numbers actually revised down 15%.

Blip on the radar or something more? Luckily still far out from any elections but a continued poor showing will almost assuredly hand the GOP the midterms and 2024. Stay tuned, I guess.

Eh, there's still a lot of time between now and November 2022. The truth is that jobs aren't likely to flood back until most people are vaccinated and more states open up in full.

That's not to say Biden shouldn't be concerned, but he's right to focus on ending the pandemic first. There's no chance of a full economic recovery until it's safe for in-person businesses like movie theaters and restaurants.

 

[gothuevos]

Eh, there's still a lot of time between now and November 2022. The truth is that jobs aren't likely to flood back until most people are vaccinated and more states open up in full.

That's not to say Biden shouldn't be concerned, but he's right to focus on ending the pandemic first. There's no chance of a full economic recovery until it's safe for in-person businesses like movie theaters and restaurants.

Problem is that the GOP will try to downplay "slow and steady" versus "booming" like they did with a lot of Obama's economic metrics.

Ya know, like how they promised 6% GDP? It works effectively well on the electorate, however.

 

[K1052]

That's not to say Biden shouldn't be concerned, but he's right to focus on ending the pandemic first. There's no chance of a full economic recovery until it's safe for in-person businesses like movie theaters and restaurants.

Yes. We're still posting 45K COVID cases a day. It's going down but that's a lot.

 

[fskimospy]

Problem is that the GOP will try to downplay "slow and steady" versus "booming" like they did with a lot of Obama's economic metrics.

Ya know, like how they promised 6% GDP? It works effectively well on the electorate, however.

I mean you do remember that they resoundingly lost the most recent election, right?

 

[gothuevos]

I mean you do remember that they resoundingly lost the most recent election, right?

Resoundingly? It was close in many battleground states...it wasnt like the 70k margin or whatever Trump had in similar states in 2016, but it certainly wasn't a blowout. All presidential elections moving forward will be similar.

And you know the public's attention span is limited. Again, it's early, but if he keeps stringing together more months like April it will be tough for him to recover.

 

[Dave_5k]

That's not to say Biden shouldn't be concerned, but he's right to focus on ending the pandemic first. There's no chance of a full economic recovery until it's safe for in-person businesses like movie theaters and restaurants.

Yes. We're still posting 45K COVID cases a day. It's going down but that's a lot.

Agree on economic recovery needing to get past pandemic first, and while "down" to ~650 COVID deaths a day, that is still a 9-11 casualty disaster occurring every 5 days.

Hopefully able to promote enough employer mandates and public/private incentives (including raffles, cash bonuses, etc.) to get adult vaccination rates up above 70% by July per Biden's target, although that will still be a bit low for herd immunity, it will be getting close. Particularly if can also start vaccinating teens rapidly.

 

[fskimospy]

Resoundingly? It was close in many battleground states...it wasnt like the 70k margin or whatever Trump had in similar states in 2016, but it certainly wasn't a blowout. All presidential elections moving forward will be similar.

Biden won by the largest margin over an incumbent since Carter. Democrats also won the House and the Senate.

And you know the public's attention span is limited. Again, it's early, but if he keeps stringing together more months like April it will be tough for him to recover.

This month's jobs report is electorally meaningless.

 

[theeedude]

Not worried, economy is reopening. Lots of issues still, but all are transient.

 

[woolfe9998]

Gonna necro this thread to talk about the current jobs report. The economy added 517,000 jobs from an expected 185,000. Which is remarkable. And:

- The unemployment rate was 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969 — as in, before Neil Armstrong landed on the moon.
- After revisions, America gained 4.8 million jobs last year. That's 300,000 more than previously reported.
- Job gains were widespread, in just about every sector. Leading the way: Leisure and hospitality added 128,000 jobs as America continued to rebound from the Covid pandemic.
- Wages grew 4.4% over the past year in January, higher than expected.

This in spite of so many warnings in the media about impending recession after all the fed rate hikes.

Right now, the economy is cooking. With luck, it will continue to do so at least up through the end of 2024.

Oh, and the stock market has gone way down so far today as Wall Street worries there will be another fed rate hike due to this jobs report. Which sounds a lot like a conflict of interest between Wall Street and Main Street.

Dow and S&P 500 updates: Stock market news today

The US job market is expected to have remained strong in January, adding 185,000 jobs. That's about on par with America's average monthly job growth over the past decade, but it would represent a slowdown from the strong post-pandemic gains of the past couple years.

www.cnn.com

 

[fskimospy]

Gonna necro this thread to talk about the current jobs report. The economy added 517,000 jobs from an expected 185,000. Which is remarkable. And:

This in spite of so many warnings in the media about impending recession after all the fed rate hikes.

Right now, the economy is cooking. With luck, it will continue to do so at least up through the end of 2024.

Oh, and the stock market has gone way down so far today as Wall Street worries there will be another fed rate hike due to this jobs report. Which sounds a lot like a conflict of interest between Wall Street and Main Street.

Dow and S&P 500 updates: Stock market news today

The US job market is expected to have remained strong in January, adding 185,000 jobs. That's about on par with America's average monthly job growth over the past decade, but it would represent a slowdown from the strong post-pandemic gains of the past couple years.

www.cnn.com

I know bad news gets clicks but at this point the news media needs to take a step back and reexamine how it reports on economic news. If you look over the last two years or so basically every economic report has said something like 'looming recession'. Then, analysts are shocked by the economy continuing to grow at a good pace so they... continue to predict a looming recession.

Here's a good one. Yes, it's from October 2022 so it is still possible that it will be right, but predictions like this are nonsense. 100% chance? That should tell you right there your predictive model is crap because anything that certain is screwing something up.

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[K1052]

I know bad news gets clicks but at this point the news media needs to take a step back and reexamine how it reports on economic news. If you look over the last two years or so basically every economic report has said something like 'looming recession'. Then, analysts are shocked by the economy continuing to grow at a good pace so they... continue to predict a looming recession.

Here's a good one. Yes, it's from October 2022 so it is still possible that it will be right, but predictions like this are nonsense. 100% chance? That should tell you right there your predictive model is crap because anything that certain is screwing something up.

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

www.bloomberg.com

Many C-suite dwellers are equally responsible for the recession dooming that's fed this coverage.

I think to some degree they're just still pissed the world changed on them without their consent and the natural rebalancing as COVID economic trends fade requires a scapegoat.

 

[woolfe9998]

I know bad news gets clicks but at this point the news media needs to take a step back and reexamine how it reports on economic news. If you look over the last two years or so basically every economic report has said something like 'looming recession'. Then, analysts are shocked by the economy continuing to grow at a good pace so they... continue to predict a looming recession.

Here's a good one. Yes, it's from October 2022 so it is still possible that it will be right, but predictions like this are nonsense. 100% chance? That should tell you right there your predictive model is crap because anything that certain is screwing something up.

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

www.bloomberg.com

I've been watching news media since the 1980's. Recession is always just around the corner. 4 out of 5 of these people they quote saying recession is looming, turn out to be wrong. But the media just keeps it up. Nevermind that predicting recession is actually damaging to the economy as fears of recession cause a reduction in consumer spending. Doesn't matter, because predictions of doom are sensationalistic and bring in more views and hits. Like I said in the other thread, news media is selling us fear and anxiety. Fear of germs; fear of police; fear of economic collapse. It's their stock in trade.

 

[sportage]

You do know why this jobs report was so incredible, the numbers were so good?
Because, republicans took back the house.
(Sean Hannity's lead-in on his show tonight. Stay tuned.)

 

[woolfe9998]

You do know why this jobs report was so incredible, the numbers were so good?
Because, republicans took back the house.
(Sean Hannity's lead-in on his show tonight. Stay tuned.)

There is/was a labor shortage, much of it due to fear of COVID-19. Yeah sure, a half million people just suddenly went back to work last month because the repugs retook the House. I'm sure all those pending "investigations" they have planned have really got people pumped and primed for work. Now that Hunter Biden will be prosecuted and everything is back on track, time to go back to work!

 

[Brovane]

I swear that sometimes the Media tries to talk us into a recession.

 

[Pens1566]

"It took 500k new employees to count and keep track of all the votes for speaker of the house".

 

[HomerJS]

You do know why this jobs report was so incredible, the numbers were so good?
Because, republicans took back the house.
(Sean Hannity's lead-in on his show tonight. Stay tuned.)

Yeah people on the right are really that stupid.

 

[Roger Wilco]

This is a weird ass recession.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Jobs number that strong at this point can also signal some harsher things to come as well. Explains why the FED is signally more interest rate increases. Things need to slow down.

 

[fskimospy]

Jobs number that strong at this point can also signal some harsher things to come as well. Explains why the FED is signally more interest rate increases. Things need to slow down.

I’m not sure as I think this is in large part due to seasonal adjustment. I bet companies laid off a lot fewer seasonal workers this year than in prior years so while some of this is new jobs, a bunch is probably not-lost jobs.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

I’m not sure as I think this is in large part due to seasonal adjustment. I bet companies laid off a lot fewer seasonal workers this year than in prior years so while some of this is new jobs, a bunch is probably not-lost jobs.

Perhaps. But they also revised up previous months that were already viewed as being too hot. Time will tell...

 

[balloonshark]

I swear that sometimes the Media tries to talk us into a recession.

And who is the recession good for? It's good for the weathly as it gives them a chance to gobble up more companies and cheap stock. A recession is an opportunity for them to widen the wealth gap.

 

[woolfe9998]

Yet inflation cooled slightly toward the end of the year, though we're far from out of the woods yet so far as that goes.

These economists do fine at diagnosing current problems, like explaining why we're experiencing inflation. However, they are bad at predicting the future. Which is why I take all future economic predictions with a huge grain of salt.