Apple posts first negative year since 2008, 2016 looks grim

[Achtung!]

This was going to happen, but I didn't know it was going to be this soon..

Apple turns in first negative year since 2008

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/31/apple-to-turn-in-first-negative-year-since-2008.html

Apple is going to have a tough year
www.businessinsider.com/apple-is-going-to-have-a-tough-year-2015-12?r=US&IR=T

So it seems Apple peaked in 2014 and even though 2015 was still a relatively good year in that Apple made a big profit, 2016 and the future look very grim especially since more people are focusing on economy-to-performance rather than brand value, and because the Chinese smartphone market is saturated.

Apple also stated that it will be relying on Samsung and LG for OLED displays in its future iPhones, so it seems that Apple may shift to an alliance with Samsung as it is also using Samsung's processors after using TSMC's processors back in 2014.

Apple needs to find a new growth engine or it will become like IBM.

Its high profits from iPhones has hindered its drive to find a new growth engine. I think Apple should be more proactive than appreciating its status quo.

 

[StrangerGuy]

If Apple is going to have a tough 2016, then Android and PC OEM profitability is going to called a complete bloodbath.

 

[Commodus]

There are some concerns (iPad sales in particular), but this still strikes me as grasping at straws... especially the stock price and the iPhone sales prediction. Let's wait until we have real figures in late January, shall we?

Besides, it's a bit rich for the world's biggest Samsung cheerleader (based on numerous posts) to proclaim doom and gloom for Apple. Besides the obvious problems with bias, Samsung itself has seen plummeting profits and fizzling sales of its flagships for two years. At best, trying to attack Apple represents an "if I'm going down, I'm taking you with me" schadenfreude; at worst, it's an attempt to distract from problems with your preferred brand.

 

[linkgoron]

I think that "tough" is a very strong word. I would assume that any competing phone (or other) company like Samsung/LG/HTC/Sony/whatever would kill for one "bad" apple year.

"If iPhone sales are on the cusp of going sideways, this is a problem. Apple needs to lock in its users with great services, and then figure out how to extract revenue from those services. "

Things have reached a stage where everything is basically "good enough" for most people, after the iPhone 6 fixed the screen size, the iPhone 6s will probably last years with its strong processor, 2GB of RAM and 3D touch. The only thing missing is maybe battery life. There is a misconception with the general Apple crowd that the 6s is "barely" an upgrade, something I strongly disagree with.

Other areas are also going well compared to other companies at least. For some reason Macs pretty much dominate with people I hang around (startups/high-tech), their watches are also dominating (http://www.techtimes.com/articles/71114/20150722/apple-owns-75-global-smartwatch-market.htm). Yes, the sales may be "bad" according to Apple standards, but other companies would kill for "bad" Apple years, and I don't see this changing.

 

[Skel]

It took two days to declare that Apple was going to die in 2016? This forum truly is slipping..

 

[Artdeco]

LOL, Apple is doomed, again.

Stock price =/= earnings.

If Apple catches a cold, the rest of the industry(ies) will die from pneumonia, srsly.

 

[kyrax12]

Well while Apple still have a lot of equity at hand to keep them afloat even with negative years, their products have no doubt been mediocre this year.

The ipad pro is probably one of the biggest slumps I have seen. It is literally just a bigger ipad with a pressure sensitive screen.

Which pretty much seem to cater heavily to artists than normal consumers.

Surface pro's can do everything ipads can do better.

 

[Artdeco]

What does Apple do when its stock price goes down?

Beuller? Beuller?

 

[khha4113]

It took two days to declare that Apple was going to die in 2016? This forum truly is slipping..

Where? I didn't see anybody said that except you!

 

[Commodus]

Well while Apple still have a lot of equity at hand to keep them afloat even with negative years, their products have no doubt been mediocre this year.

The ipad pro is probably one of the biggest slumps I have seen. It is literally just a bigger ipad with a pressure sensitive screen.

Which pretty much seem to cater heavily to artists than normal consumers.

Surface pro's can do everything ipads can do better.

I wouldn't call them mediocre so much as obviously version 1.0 products. The Watch is still better than other smartwatches in most respects, but it's still saddled by slow performance and a relatively thick design. The Apple TV feels like a rich, sophisticated set-top box... but there aren't many apps for it yet, and a few older features were left out. And of course, Apple Music was clearly rushed, even if it does some things quite well.

The iPad Pro doesn't have a pressure-sensitive screen, by the way -- it's the Pencil that registers the amount of force. Also, it still touts a higher resolution, a much faster processor and a new connector (needed for the keyboard). It's like arguing that a 15-inch laptop is just a really large netbook -- you're overlooking both the advantages of that size and everything that comes along for the ride.

Also, the Surface line can't do everything an iPad Pro can do. It doesn't last as long on battery, it's thicker and heavier at a given screen size, and there are considerably more touch-native apps. I'd say the Surface line is better if you're looking for a close analog to a conventional laptop, but the iPad is better if you're still focused on tablet-native apps.

 

[Phokus]

I wouldn't call them mediocre so much as obviously version 1.0 products. The Watch is still better than other smartwatches in most respects, but it's still saddled by slow performance and a relatively thick design. The Apple TV feels like a rich, sophisticated set-top box... but there aren't many apps for it yet, and a few older features were left out. And of course, Apple Music was clearly rushed, even if it does some things quite well.

The iPad Pro doesn't have a pressure-sensitive screen, by the way -- it's the Pencil that registers the amount of force. Also, it still touts a higher resolution, a much faster processor and a new connector (needed for the keyboard). It's like arguing that a 15-inch laptop is just a really large netbook -- you're overlooking both the advantages of that size and everything that comes along for the ride.

Also, the Surface line can't do everything an iPad Pro can do. It doesn't last as long on battery, it's thicker and heavier at a given screen size, and there are considerably more touch-native apps. I'd say the Surface line is better if you're looking for a close analog to a conventional laptop, but the iPad is better if you're still focused on tablet-native apps.

The battery life on the apple watch is atrocious compared to some other smart watches, i get almost 4 days out of my LG G Watch R

 

[Commodus]

The battery life on the apple watch is atrocious compared to some other smart watches, i get almost 4 days out of my LG G Watch R

It's more than enough to get people through a day (I usually finish with 50 percent or more, even after going on runs). It's certainly not an obstacle sales-wise, given that Apple is currently the leading smartwatch maker... based on estimates, anyway.

 

[MongGrel]

Desktops in general were being predicted to die according to some sources well over a decade ago, just to cite an example.

Just one of those things.

 

[VirtualLarry]

If Apple is going to have a tough 2016, then Android and PC OEM profitability is going to called a complete bloodbath.

Yeah... I'm curious how the bigger PC vendors did, over this past holiday season.

 

[PingviN]

Apples biggest problem is probably the complete and utter lack of new products. It's another iPhone, another iPad, a watch that no one wants and then there is... a bigger iPad. With iPad functionality. Apple has stopped finding new categories to get into, only a matter of time before someone else takes the lead (one could argue Microsoft did that in the tablet space with the Surface Pro).

 

[StrangerGuy]

Yeah... I'm curious how the bigger PC vendors did, over this past holiday season.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20151229PD212.html

Remember the meme of how strong the enthusiast PC market is?

Nah, only a -21.7% YoY decline in 2015 DIY mobo shipments. Apple is doomed because they outsold the entire 54M 2015 DIY mobo shipments in units with just one average 2015 quarter. *sarcasm*.

Back to Samsung, they are so insecure about their next S7 that they are only making 5 million in total for the initial batch. Once again, iPhone hits that number in just 2 mundane weeks.

 

[wilds]

Doesn't Apple have ~$200B of spare cash? They could easily bleed many OEM's dry and still have a lot left over.

 

[khha4113]

Doesn't Apple have ~$200B of spare cash? They could easily bleed many OEM's dry and still have a lot left over.

Unfortunately(?), most of them (about 90%) are overseas so Apple can't really use to do something like that!

 

[Deeko]

Come on people, back up off the ledge, Apple's profits are still insane.

Investors are stupid. I said this a decade ago when Microsoft kept stagnating despite profits that increased every year, and I'm saying it again now with Apple. If you aren't doubling your profits every quarter, your stock doesn't go up. Luckily for Apple fans, Tim Cook showed when he brushed off that vulture Icahn that he doesn't really care about that.

Maybe their growth slows. Maybe the iPad continues to falter. Maybe the iPad Pro and Apple Watch are duds in 2016. If the iPhone still sells in the numbers it does - that doesn't matter.

 

[StrangerGuy]

Investors are stupid. I said this a decade ago when Microsoft kept stagnating despite profits that increased every year, and I'm saying it again now with Apple. If you aren't doubling your profits every quarter, your stock doesn't go up. Luckily for Apple fans, Tim Cook showed when he brushed off that vulture Icahn that he doesn't really care about that.

Maybe their growth slows. Maybe the iPad continues to falter. Maybe the iPad Pro and Apple Watch are duds in 2016. If the iPhone still sells in the numbers it does - that doesn't matter.

I don't know which is more funny according to "analysts": Apple outperforming everyone else combined in profits by nearly a magnitude is a failure, or competitors giving away the farm for marketshare to earn peanuts or even a loss is called a huge success.

 

[stlc8tr]

Come on people, back up off the ledge, Apple's profits are still insane.

The OP is a known Samsung proponent (check his post history) so take all of his "Apple is doomed" posts with a shaker's worth of salt.

 

[Achtung!]

Samsung is a bigger company than Apple.

Samsung has higher revenues, assets and equities.

Apple only has higher profits. That's a pretty dangerous situation to be in from a business perspective. Apple hasn't diversified at all, because it's just focused on making cash from its iPhones, iPads and iPods.

 

[poofyhairguy]

I wouldn't call them mediocre so much as obviously version 1.0 products. The Watch is still better than other smartwatches in most respects, but it's still saddled by slow performance and a relatively thick design. The Apple TV feels like a rich, sophisticated set-top box... but there aren't many apps for it yet, and a few older features were left out. And of course, Apple Music was clearly rushed, even if it does some things quite well.

The iPad Pro doesn't have a pressure-sensitive screen, by the way -- it's the Pencil that registers the amount of force. Also, it still touts a higher resolution, a much faster processor and a new connector (needed for the keyboard). It's like arguing that a 15-inch laptop is just a really large netbook -- you're overlooking both the advantages of that size and everything that comes along for the ride.

Also, the Surface line can't do everything an iPad Pro can do. It doesn't last as long on battery, it's thicker and heavier at a given screen size, and there are considerably more touch-native apps. I'd say the Surface line is better if you're looking for a close analog to a conventional laptop, but the iPad is better if you're still focused on tablet-native apps.

Wow, that is a lot of spin. The Apple Watch looks like a dinosaur in the market compared to something like the Huawei watch with its square screen. The iPad Pro is still held back by a almost toy-like OS that doesn't let you get at the file system and that needs apps created for it, compared to the Surface Pro that runs a real OS with decades of productivity apps already working. And let's not forget the fact that the pen has no home and has to piggie back charge in the dumbest manner possible. The new Macbook is a joke compared to this giant iPad though. Fact is that many of Apple's new product lines really aren't that great. That was the theme of 2015.

Hell even the great iPhone isn't a market leader in technology. The screen on the small model is so-so, force touch adds a complexity to smartphones normal users don't want, and their bezels are still huge without the front facing speakers other phone models have. The SoC is top of the class, but around the iPhone 5 era you could get a great SoC as well as a cutting edge device otherwise. Apple keeps holding their punches with the iPhone since then, with a 1GB ram iPhone 6 that was pathetic and now a iPhone 6s with the same body style (even though HTC got grilled for doing that this year).

Someone will respond how it all doesn't matter because all this iStuff out sold whatever competitor is out there, but that is due to the momentum of the Apple brand more than the fact that the new 2015 products were amazing. Apple built that brand by offering amazing products for years but it is in danger of eroding if Apple gives us technology like square watches, iPad Pro pens, or "new" Macbooks. Maybe not in a year or two, but eventually the Chinese competition will provide so much value in comparison that its impossible to ignore.

Looks at the Apple Tv business for an example of what would happen if the competition catches up and moves past completely. That Apple brand doesn't help it dominate the set top market because they aren't known for leadership in that sector. They are in danger of the tablet market or the phone market going the same direction (or getting so saturated it doesn't matter).

 

[Commodus]

Samsung is a bigger company than Apple.

Samsung has higher revenues, assets and equities.

Apple only has higher profits. That's a pretty dangerous situation to be in from a business perspective. Apple hasn't diversified at all, because it's just focused on making cash from its iPhones, iPads and iPods.

Samsung Electronics is still heavily, heavily dependent on smartphones.

I looked at its Q3 2015 earnings (caution: PDF). More than half of its revenues come from mobile; a third of its profit comes from mobile. A large chunk of the rest is its part manufacturing (semiconductor/display) business... and remember, Samsung acts as one of its own customers for mobile parts, while Apple is one of its biggest customers.

It may not be completely over for Samsung if its phone business falters, but the company would be a shadow of its former self -- this isn't like Sony getting out of mobile, where the additional electronics businesses are as strong or stronger.

Apple is more vulnerable if things go badly, to be sure, but it's the one that still has consistent growth in revenue, profits and (for the most part) units. The question is not which company is more resilient if there's trouble, but which company is more likely to run into trouble in the first place. And while there are things to be nervous about (iPads in particular), it's a bad idea to confuse analyst predictions with actual, honest-to-goodness problems.

 

[Commodus]

Wow, that is a lot of spin. The Apple Watch looks like a dinosaur in the market compared to something like the Huawei watch with its square screen. The iPad Pro is still held back by a almost toy-like OS that doesn't let you get at the file system and that needs apps created for it, compared to the Surface Pro that runs a real OS with decades of productivity apps already working. And let's not forget the fact that the pen has no home and has to piggie back charge in the dumbest manner possible. The new Macbook is a joke compared to this giant iPad though. Fact is that many of Apple's new product lines really aren't that great. That was the theme of 2015.

Hell even the great iPhone isn't a market leader in technology. The screen on the small model is so-so, force touch adds a complexity to smartphones normal users don't want, and their bezels are still huge without the front facing speakers other phone models have. The SoC is top of the class, but around the iPhone 5 era you could get a great SoC as well as a cutting edge device otherwise. Apple keeps holding their punches with the iPhone since then, with a 1GB ram iPhone 6 that was pathetic and now a iPhone 6s with the same body style (even though HTC got grilled for doing that this year).

Here's the thing: the Huawei Watch looks nicer, but that doesn't mean it's a better smartwatch. I'm thinking more holistically, such as fitness tracking, app ecosystem... and yes, interface. Android Wear is better at showing passive info, but it's lousy when you actively set out to do something. Remember, most of its major OS updates introduced features Apple had already announced (heck, Google even mimicked the finger drawing feature).

I don't think the file system is the iPad Pro's issue, at least not the most pressing one -- the real issue is just taking full advantage of the larger screen. I'll certainly acknowledge that the Surface Pro is better for conventional work, but Windows does have a serious problem with attracting touch-native apps -- heck, Office was touch-native on Android and the iPad before Windows! Imagine being forbidden from using the hardware keyboard on a Surface... how much would you like it then? I'll certainly say that the iPad Pro isn't as much of a workhorse as the Surface, but it's still pretty good for creative work... and, of course, it's still better-suited to media.

Someone will respond how it all doesn't matter because all this iStuff out sold whatever competitor is out there, but that is due to the momentum of the Apple brand more than the fact that the new 2015 products were amazing. Apple built that brand by offering amazing products for years but it is in danger of eroding if Apple gives us technology like square watches, iPad Pro pens, or "new" Macbooks. Maybe not in a year or two, but eventually the Chinese competition will provide so much value in comparison that its impossible to ignore.

I don't think the 2015 offerings were amazing -- even the Apple Watch was really just a good evolution of where smartwatches had been. And yeah, I'd prefer if the MacBook had more ports and a faster processor. However, I said "version 1.0" for a reason: a lot of this is rough stuff that's more likely to pan out in subsequent generations. Remember the first-generation iPhone and MacBook Air? Both of them were expensive devices with obvious flaws, but their core ideas were sound enough that the refined sequels were hits. I want to see if Apple can flesh out the Watch/MacBook/iPad Pro in 2016 before we start to worry.