AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

[irishScott]

Anyone predicting election results, even in the primaries, at this point is the definition of Moran.

This is just another political jerk-off (ZOMG OBAMA IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE LEFT ACCORDING TO A POLL FUUUUUUUCK YEEEEAAAA *SPLOOGE*)

Feel good lefties, be very afraid righties, the rational middle will wait, watch, and not really care in the meantime.

 

[zinfamous]

I've seen a lot of the arch-concervatives on this board blaming Clinton, over and over, for failing in his attempts to kill bin Laden--every single one of them.

obviously, that was his fault.

not one of them will give credit to Obama for killing the bastard. what they will do, however is say that it was Bush's policy that killed him.

let's see:

Obama did not shoot him? did he shoot him? NO--not his credit.
Clinton missed bin laden 4x. did he fire the missles? no! HIS FAULT11111
Bush: did he let bin Laden escape? Yes! Bush Killed bin Laden!!!

lol

petty bastards, every one of them.

 

[Fern]

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points



Try again...

Yeah, poll looks dubious.

I drilled down and found the actual poll. Here the link:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_May_Topline_051011_POLITICS.pdf

It's a pdf, see page 37. It confirms the dems @46% and repubs @29%

In reading the AP's response I'm surprised they didn't adjust the numbers to account for the big repub/dem split.

I suspect this poll will be proven an outlier and if so we'll know why.

Fern

 

[werepossum]

The poll is skewed, much like Rasmussen polls, but it does show a real bump for Obama. Right or wrong, the President gets the blame and the credit for everything that happens. And in this case, as Commander-In-Chief, he deserves his share of credit. I'm not as giddy as the Omamedia, but I think he played his part well and deserves his credit, and I'm a reasonably right wing guy.

 

[senseamp]

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points



Try again...

Damn, that sucks for GOP, 17% Dem advantage.

 

[dali71]

Damn, that sucks for GOP, 17% Dem advantage.

 

[werepossum]

 

[senseamp]

Yep, big facepalm for GOP, losing support. Oh well, too bad, so sad.

 

[zinfamous]

Yep, big facepalm for GOP, losing support. Oh well, too bad, so sad.

seriously, though.


did you actually read that article?

:hmm:

 

[senseamp]

seriously, though.


did you actually read that article?

:hmm:

I read it, they polled people RANDOMLY, it came out to 17% Dem advantage over GOP. Them's the breaks.

 

[dali71]

I read it, they polled people RANDOMLY, it came out to 17% Dem advantage over GOP. Them's the breaks.

senseamp - pushing the envelope of stupidity since 2006

 

[senseamp]

senseamp - pushing the envelope of stupidity since 2006

Having a tantrum because a poll didn't work out your way? Weak sauce.

 

[dali71]

Having a tantrum because a poll didn't work out your way? Weak sauce.

Too fucking stupid to see why people have a valid criticism of a poll? Typical senseamp.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Too fucking stupid to see why people have a valid criticism of a poll? Typyical senseamp.

Well he's right from one perspective. Assuming the polling methods are as stated you can tell from this sample that if you have this group which consists of 46% Democrats and 29% Republicans the result is a 60% approval rating.

I understand that the atmospheric pressure of Mars is so low that 100% of unprotected people would die if suddenly transported there.

Other statistics. Given two and only two possible outcomes, there is a 100% chance that the result would be one or the other. Think of the huge manatee!

Of course none of the above relate to Obama's approval among a representative sample of voters.

 

[senseamp]

Too fucking stupid to see why people have a valid criticism of a poll? Typical senseamp.

Results didn't come out your way =/= valid criticism.
I haven't seen any valid criticism of the poll methodology, not that your little brain is capable of evaluating it.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Results didn't come out your way =/= valid criticism.
I haven't seen any valid criticism of the poll methodology.

Two questions-
What is the percentage of Republicans and Democrats in the poll

and

What is the percentage of Republican and Democrats in the US?

 

[Capt Caveman]

Yeah, poll looks dubious.

I drilled down and found the actual poll. Here the link:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_May_Topline_051011_POLITICS.pdf

It's a pdf, see page 37. It confirms the dems @46% and repubs @29%

In reading the AP's response I'm surprised they didn't adjust the numbers to account for the big repub/dem split.

I suspect this poll will be proven an outlier and if so we'll know why.

Fern

Why would they adjust the poll? 40 random polls taken since 2009 have shown an equal split.

UPDATE: Notice that in Gallup’s polling, party ID remains pretty stable. In roughly 40 polls since mid-2009, Democrats and Republicans have both ranged in the 40s with leaners. During that time, the split has never been larger than 7 percentage points. Their most recent split, from late April, is 31 percent Republican, 36 percent Independent, and 32 percent Democrat; with leaners, it’s a 46-46 split.

Now, another random poll is conducted that shows a split and states a

a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

should be adjusted?

I'd rather they ask the question if the OBL killing and the GOP reaction has caused the interviewee to identify them self as a Democrat now.

Of course, the OBL kill could have prompted more Americans to self-identify as Democrats. Some pollsters are okay with dramatic shifts in their party ID from poll to poll; they see respondents’ party self-identification as flexible, even fickle, changing from week to week and month to month.

 

[senseamp]

Two questions-
What is the percentage of Republicans and Democrats in the poll

29% and 46% respectively

and
What is the percentage of Republican and Democrats in the US?

Why don't you tell us?

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

29% and 46% respectively

Why don't you tell us?

I can. Would it make a difference if I did or would you make an argument that percentages of Democrats and Republicans in a poll do not matter?

 

[senseamp]

I can.

So do it.

Would it make a difference if I did or would you make an argument that percentages of Democrats and Republicans in a poll do not matter?

So you are going to use numbers from a poll? Fine.
Then I can use numbers from this poll, which say it's 46% Dems to 29% GOP.

 

[zinfamous]

I read it, they polled people RANDOMLY, it came out to 17% Dem advantage over GOP. Them's the breaks.

since no one is actually helping you out here:

the poll indicated that of those polled--46% considered themselves dem/dem, to 29% repub/leaning repub, with 4% independent, and, I think, 20% not sure.

that is the 17 point advantage. It is in the poll, not in the approval rating.

EDIT: oh never-mind, It seems there was a solid attempt to explain it.

 

[zinfamous]

also, "random" polling in very dem-leaning districts is about as "random" as polling in very heavy repub-leaning districts.

the results would be equally useless.

 

[senseamp]

also, "random" polling in very dem-leaning districts is about as "random" as polling in very heavy repub-leaning districts.

the results would be equally useless.

If that's what happened, which you have no proof of. So the only things useless here are these rightwinger tantrums that a poll didn't go their way.

 

[senseamp]

since no one is actually helping you out here:

the poll indicated that of those polled--46% considered themselves dem/dem, to 29% repub/leaning repub, with 4% independent, and, I think, 20% not sure.

that is the 17 point advantage. It is in the poll, not in the approval rating.

EDIT: oh never-mind, It seems there was a solid attempt to explain it.

That would be true if they went out trying to poll 46% Dems and 29% Republicans. They randomly polled, and those numbers were the RESULTS they got. Of course explaining the difference between methodology and results to you is a waste of time.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

So do it.

So you are going to use numbers from a poll? Fine.
Then I can use numbers from this poll, which say it's 46% Dems to 29% GOP.

I accept that the group which responded is 46% Dem and 29% Rep.

Rounding off to whole numbers American voters identify themselves as 35% Republican and 34% Democrat.