Anyone know why the Japanese yen still appreciates?

fuzzybabybunny

Moderator<br>Digital & Video Cameras
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I've always been a bit confused about this.

As I understand it, a currency appreciates because of increasing demand for the currency as well as a decreasing supply of it.

Well... Japan's economy seems to be slowing, they have a massive amount of debt, the overall GDP and GDP per capita has been falling, and they have an increasingly elderly population.

I don't get it. Why do people still want yen? Why do they think the yen is still a good investment?
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
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Because QE is actually deflationary because on the financial side of things you get 0.25% interest instead of 5% interest on savings, CDS, Bonds, etc.

My opinion.

Right now everyone has piled into stocks because the yields on holding someone else's debt sucks and when that trend has run its course the deflation will really kick in, IMO.

The Nikkei hit 40,000 and never returned after all. Japan is on QE 8 now or whatever.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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^Potential helicopter money coming for Japan. Because if printing money with QE doesn't work, print more, and hand even more out?

I've heard "analysts" say it's a flight to safety causing the Yen rise. I guess... but I'd rather hold USD than the currency of a country that sits on a bunch of fault lines and runs a negative central bank rate.
 

theeedude

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Feb 5, 2006
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It was appreciating relative to other currencies, because BOJ was perceived as most out of ammo when it comes to devaluing currency. So after Brexit, people though Fed would delay rate increases, so dollar weakened. No one expected BOJ to raise rates even before Brexit, so not as much has changed for the yen. So in relative terms, dollar weakened vs the yen.
But now it is depreciating because there is now a perceived ability for BOJ to weaken yen further after "helicopter money" (basically printing money and giving it to govt to spend) was put on the table.
 

dullard

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May 21, 2001
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^Potential helicopter money coming for Japan. Because if printing money with QE doesn't work, print more, and hand even more out?
QE needs to be targeted to work but it is a blunt tool. If interest rates plummet, AND IF customers get cheap loans to buy things, then demand rises and prices increase until supply catches up. Thus, theoretically in economics 101 QE is inflationary. The big problem with QE is underlined: if consumers don't want loans or can't get loans (no job, credit problem such as the recent credit crash, etc) then QE doesn't increase prices.

If instead of customers getting the loans, companies get the cheap loans and use it to expand production, then supply increases with not much change in demand. That is deflationary. That is exactly the opposite of the desired goal. Yes, companies often did other things than increase production (like stock buybacks). But some companies certainly did use it to expand.

Helicopter money, while ridiculous, is at least targeted better towards consumers to increase demand.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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QE needs to be targeted to work. If interest rates plummet, AND IF customers get cheap loans to buy things, then demand rises and prices increase until supply catches up. Thus, theoretically in economics 101 QE is inflationary. The big problem with QE is underlined: if consumers don't want loans or can't get loans (no job, credit problem such as the recent credit crash, etc) then QE doesn't increase prices..

You don't have to worry about that in Canada or Australia... Debt-income ratios of 165% and 170%, if I recall correctly. Among the world's most expensive homes too.

Edit: Funny thing is that neither Canada nor Australia, as far as I know, have used QE. Could customers be wary of borrowing in QE'd Japan and QE'd US because of massive housing market crashes that showed them the downside of borrowing?

Speaking of loans going bad, I can't wait for this chart to get updated in about a month.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DALLCIACBEP
 
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Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
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QE needs to be targeted to work but it is a blunt tool. If interest rates plummet, AND IF customers get cheap loans to buy things, then demand rises and prices increase until supply catches up. Thus, theoretically in economics 101 QE is inflationary. The big problem with QE is underlined: if consumers don't want loans or can't get loans (no job, credit problem such as the recent credit crash, etc) then QE doesn't increase prices.
That's a great summary. The savings rate has increased in recent years. Although recently it has declined a bit.

ezOXNuR.jpg


That was a little surprising. Everyone thought that as gas prices declined, and disposable income increased, you would get a wave of consumer spending that would help buoy the economy. Instead, people decided to sock that money away.

All of the money that the fed has pumped into the economy is stagnating in excess reserves that can only be used as reserves against new loans. And by and large, lending has not increased much.

While nominal household debt is back to pre-recession levels, it is still declining as a percentage of gdp.

sEDcQsl.jpg
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
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QE needs to be targeted to work but it is a blunt tool. If interest rates plummet, AND IF customers get cheap loans to buy things, then demand rises and prices increase until supply catches up. Thus, theoretically in economics 101 QE is inflationary. The big problem with QE is underlined: if consumers don't want loans or can't get loans (no job, credit problem such as the recent credit crash, etc) then QE doesn't increase prices.

If instead of customers getting the loans, companies get the cheap loans and use it to expand production, then supply increases with not much change in demand. That is deflationary. That is exactly the opposite of the desired goal. Yes, companies often did other things than increase production (like stock buybacks). But some companies certainly did use it to expand.

Helicopter money, while ridiculous, is at least targeted better towards consumers to increase demand.
Why give out loans when there is nothing in it for the banks. You're only going to give out a 0.9% APR car loan to people with amazing credit scores. Thats exactly how it is now.

Car Max still quotes 7%.


Wealth inequality mang.

People wonder about the effects of QE like its some kind of vague mystery. QE does exactly whats happening. Been doing it 8 years now. Wealth inequality, and loans used for financial returns instead of being used for actual capital investment and thus the standard of living is not so good but at least everybody is in business on paper. Inflation is tepid at best and seems to be in line with interest rates. What will be interesting is if the places that have gone negative will see negative growth.

Because the interest rate is so low, the cost of things people purchase with loans looking only at monthly payments has increased even though inflation is tepid. So mortgages, cars, tuition in that order. Its become much harder to pay those things off but people are carrying large debt loads and trying to live life.

The bottom line getting back on topic is that the Yen will appreciate against any currency whose bonds have a higher interest rate.

What it does to the actual people living in Japan is kind of terrible IMO. We're like awww look at those cute Japanese studying 16 hours a day and they have a special cute little word for working yourself to death. Well... if you wanna pay off your mortgage and education...

Freeters are essentially the supercharged equivalent of US Millenials etc. in response to the daunting cost of participating in the rat race getting into it so late in the game.
 
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alcoholbob

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May 24, 2005
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It's a popular funding currency and a lot of traders have to make up their lost positions on Brexit bets.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
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The bottom line getting back on topic is that the Yen will appreciate against any currency whose bonds have a higher interest rate.
I'm pretty weak on the int'l side of things but isn't it the other way around? If US rates are higher, then there will be a greater demand for US debt. That means to buy the debt, Japanese people have to convert yen to dollars. That means greater demand for the dollar and less demand for the yen. That increases the value of the dollar and depresses the yen.
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
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I'm pretty weak on the int'l side of things but isn't it the other way around? If US rates are higher, then there will be a greater demand for US debt. That means to buy the debt, Japanese people have to convert yen to dollars. That means greater demand for the dollar and less demand for the yen. That increases the value of the dollar and depresses the yen.

Nah I understand it as EXPECTATIONS of inflation were high because of Abenomics but those expectations never materialize from QE as usual.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
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Inflation is tepid at best and seems to be in line with interest rates.
Note: those two things are usually quite well correlated. Low interest rates and low inflation tend to go together. High interest rates and high inflation tend to go together. For example, never in US history has inflation been high in the year after a low interest rate was set.
 
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