Any predictions for the mobile landscape for next year?

[zerocool84]

I will be watching the Apple watch sales with interest. Entire wearable category has been a failure IMO and it'll be interesting if Apple can change that.

It hasn't shown that it does anything that much better than what's already out. It's not like the styling is better either. Plus like already said, they announced it waaaaaaaaaay too early and everyone else has time to catch up. Honestly, the only reason to buy it is because you own an iPhone, not because it does anything better.

 

[Commodus]

I think Apple screwed themselves by putting almost half a year between announcing and releasing. You missed that initial surge of people buying just "because" upon release. Now you've got months and months of waiting and people realizing that they can actually survive without that tech and saving themselves $350 or more. It was a horribly rushed move by Apple and not in character with their traditional way of releasing products.

Haven't followed many Apple product launches, I see.

Apple has done this a few times, actually. It unveiled the iPhone six months before launch, and the iPad three months before. In those cases, at least, Apple was making sure that its entry into a new category wouldn't be "pre-announced" by an FCC filing or leaks at part suppliers. Similar deal here, I suspect, and we know that both devices sold extremely well despite the wait.

With that said, this may actually be clever (intentionally or otherwise), if you think about it. Apple basically raised the expectations for smartwatches and made its rivals look bad. Not that serious Android fans would ditch their phones to get an Apple Watch, but it's hard to get excited about a relatively plain Gear S or G Watch (the Moto 360 is better) when you know the Apple Watch exists.

 

[Commodus]

It hasn't shown that it does anything that much better than what's already out. It's not like the styling is better either. Plus like already said, they announced it waaaaaaaaaay too early and everyone else has time to catch up. Honestly, the only reason to buy it is because you own an iPhone, not because it does anything better.

I disagree. There's a fair amount, at least if you follow closely.

First: apps. Apps apps apps. Android Wear, Pebble and Samsung's Tizen interface don't do much to surface apps or take good advantage of having something on your wrist. Apple not only puts apps much closer to the top, but it has a pretty deep developer kit available well in advance. In theory, anyway, it promises to be more useful on day one.

The next bit is styling... I have to take issue with this! On most current smartwatches, it's an event when you see any leather straps or metal casings. Apple's line not only has those in spades, it's using bands and materials that you usually only see among upscale watches (Milanese bands, real gold). It's unfortunately likely to be pretty expensive to dive in, but look at it this way: you'd probably be embarrassed to wear a Gear S at a posh social function, but an Apple Watch might actually look good.

And I'm also curious to see how the fitness features work. Right now, most smartwatches have fairly basic fitness out of the box (measure your heart rate, count your steps). Apple seems to be more conscious that people need goals, and that fitness isn't just about how long you run or how much you walk.

 

[cliftonite]

I disagree. There's a fair amount, at least if you follow closely.

First: apps. Apps apps apps. Android Wear, Pebble and Samsung's Tizen interface don't do much to surface apps or take good advantage of having something on your wrist. Apple not only puts apps much closer to the top, but it has a pretty deep developer kit available well in advance. In theory, anyway, it promises to be more useful on day one.

The next bit is styling... I have to take issue with this! On most current smartwatches, it's an event when you see any leather straps or metal casings. Apple's line not only has those in spades, it's using bands and materials that you usually only see among upscale watches (Milanese bands, real gold). It's unfortunately likely to be pretty expensive to dive in, but look at it this way: you'd probably be embarrassed to wear a Gear S at a posh social function, but an Apple Watch might actually look good.

And I'm also curious to see how the fitness features work. Right now, most smartwatches have fairly basic fitness out of the box (measure your heart rate, count your steps). Apple seems to be more conscious that people need goals, and that fitness isn't just about how long you run or how much you walk.

Can you give some examples of these apps? I think most wear devices can use existing bands, so I don't see how that is a problem.

 

[Dari]

Troubling news for Qualcomm and tier-1 OEMs?

New Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 details arrive, as rumors of flaws and shortages loom



There are other rumors that point to S805 in HTC One (M9) and Sony Xperia Z4 next year. I personally do not think there is anything wrong with S805 - it's just launched and plenty fast for 2K display, which is very rare on smartphones as of today. Heck, I think S800 is plenty for 1080p phones. (Tablets could use some more performance)

Will Qualcomm slip? Will it be an opportune moment for Rockchips, Mediatek, Allwinner, et al.? XD

Does not compute. Alternatives like Exynos, Mediatek, Rockchips et al are bottom-feeders who do not compete with Qualcomm at the high end and this is where the (rumored) problems are. If growth is at the midrange and alternative applications (smartwatches, for example) then Qualcomm will be fine. They are everywhere, even in Apple products.

 

[ControlD]

With that said, this may actually be clever (intentionally or otherwise), if you think about it. Apple basically raised the expectations for smartwatches and made its rivals look bad.

Briefly showing a product and then not releasing it for six months makes your rivals look bad? Wut?

What will make Android Wear products look bad is if the iWatch is finally released and does everything better. Until then it is all just speculation. I'm betting the iWatch will be quite good personally.

Anyone want to bet Apple will sell a line of iBands for their watches starting at the low, low price of $79 a pop? Maybe they will even have a Beats logo imprinted on them. There, that's my predication. iBands by Beats.

 

[NikolaeVarius]

Apple seems to be more conscious that people need goals, and that fitness isn't just about how long you run or how much you walk.

That's . . . actually a fairly large portion of fitness.

And as for styling, most current Android Wear watches are compatible with standard watch bands, so that's a non-issue. Exactly what is so different about the apple watch styling then current smartwatches?

 

[Midwayman]

Despite being able to change bands, metal bracelets never look as good after market compared to one that are designed specifically for the watch case. Its true for leather bands as well to some extent. You just can't have the ends flush against the case any other way. Though bands usually float a bit where the first link on a bracelet is often shaped to blend seamlessly into the case.

 

[Commodus]

Can you give some examples of these apps? I think most wear devices can use existing bands, so I don't see how that is a problem.

A few good examples:

- A Twitter app that actually lets you compose tweets and view your timeline, not just get notifications.
- Starwood Hotels' app will use NFC on the Watch to unlock your hotel door.
- American Airlines is working on an app that lets you get through most of the airport process (i.e. it doesn't just show your ticket).
- Home automation apps from Honeywell and Lutron.
- City Mapper lets you know where you are on mass transit and will "tap" you when your stop approaches.
- BMW will both let you check your car status and get directions to it.

You see the running theme? It's not that Android Wear or Tizen can't do cool stuff (I've used a few Android Wear apps myself), but the emphasis is more on the device as an app platform rather than a passive watch that just happens to run apps.

As for fashion... it ain't just about replacing bands. A cheap-looking plastic casing (i.e. a lot of what's out there) will remain ugly no matter how nice the strap is. You ideally get a watch where the casing looks nice and the bands are designed to match. To me, it looks like ASUS and Motorola are the only ones beyond Apple that really understand this... and you still need either special tools or a nearby watch shop to get the bands replaced.

 

[Shlong]

I disagree. There's a fair amount, at least if you follow closely.

First: apps. Apps apps apps. Android Wear, Pebble and Samsung's Tizen interface don't do much to surface apps or take good advantage of having something on your wrist. Apple not only puts apps much closer to the top, but it has a pretty deep developer kit available well in advance. In theory, anyway, it promises to be more useful on day one.

The next bit is styling... I have to take issue with this! On most current smartwatches, it's an event when you see any leather straps or metal casings. Apple's line not only has those in spades, it's using bands and materials that you usually only see among upscale watches (Milanese bands, real gold). It's unfortunately likely to be pretty expensive to dive in, but look at it this way: you'd probably be embarrassed to wear a Gear S at a posh social function, but an Apple Watch might actually look good.

And I'm also curious to see how the fitness features work. Right now, most smartwatches have fairly basic fitness out of the box (measure your heart rate, count your steps). Apple seems to be more conscious that people need goals, and that fitness isn't just about how long you run or how much you walk.

Most watch enthusiasts would be embarrassed to wear an Apple watch at a posh social function, they have their Rolex, Patek, Audemars, and Vacheron for that.

 

[Commodus]

Most watch enthusiasts would be embarrassed to wear an Apple watch at a posh social function, they have their Rolex, Patek, Audemars, and Vacheron for that.

There's still a definite gulf between smartwatches and high end mechanical watches, and I doubt that it'll be closed for a long time (if ever). It's more about achieving a baseline degree of social acceptability and competing with conventional watches... well, at all, really. We need devices that can at least compete with a lower-end Citizen or Tissot watch; we can work on the more luxurious wristwear later.

My favourite example of what's wrong with many current smartwatches is Joanna Stern's review of the G Watch and Gear Live for WSJ. Look at the reaction of a soon-to-be-married friend when Joanna shows up wearing the Gear Live (Joanna would later note that this was unprompted):

http://youtu.be/9v02v1xYR2M?t=2m39s

It's always a bit amusing when someone raves about how "stylish" their smartwatch is... and all they did was buy a leather band for an otherwise plastic gadget. I don't think a lot of us geeks really understand how much higher the bar for acceptable style really is compared to the current smartwatch crop. Many of those who think a Gear S looks good are also the sort who don't see much problem with wearing a cheap Casio or Swatch (if they've ever worn a watch in their lives). It's part of why I'm not balking too much at the $349 base price for the Apple Watch... it's not necessarily priced as low as it could be, but good materials cost money.

 

[lopri]

I have never really been a watch person but I used to wear a Swatch and I do have a problem with smart watches. The Swatch I wore was like ~5 mm thick. They do not make many of those any more (mostly women's these days) now that watches became a passé.

I do not think Smart Watches are going to compete against Movados and Cartiers. Nor are they against Casios or Swatches.

Edit: Granted if the technology becomes mature enough to change people's perception, then yes there is a potential for smart watches to bring back watches on people's wrists. At that point it may even compete against established watch makers or cooperate with them. (like these maybe?) But I think smart watches should prove themselves to consumers first before other quality considerations come into play.

 

[senseamp]

Good-enough-ism and commoditification setting in on mainstream Android side.
Prices dropping, reducing benefit of subsidies, and increasing popularity of no-contract plans. Increased T-mobile market share.
Phablet fad cooling and resurgence of ~4.5" super-phones.
Increased focus on battery life.
Wearable bubble bursting.

 

[Harry_Wild]

CES and MWC are coming up. I've noticed that, to move from 16GB to 32 or 64GB, the price to pay is not as big as it used to be. In fact, many OEMs are skipping 32GB altogether. Do you think 32GB will become the new base just as 16GB has been for a while now? I'd like to think so, then there'd be no need for mSDs for many end users. Also, SONY has taken battery management very seriously. I think other OEMs will go in that direction. Before, it used to be only Motorola but they did it primarily from the hardware side with big batteries. Now, I think many will focus on the software side.

I bought my last smartphone for personal use in 2013 so I'm eagerly looking to see what's going to be available.

Apple has skip the 32GB and went to the 64 and 128GB models for iPhone 6. It a clever marketing move. Almost nobody buys the 16GB unless it on contract. Most are going for the 64GB model for $100 more. But for $100 more; you get the 128GB.

 

[Commodus]

I have never really been a watch person but I used to wear a Swatch and I do have a problem with smart watches. The Swatch I wore was like ~5 mm thick. They do not make many of those any more (mostly women's these days) now that watches became a passé.

I do not think Smart Watches are going to compete against Movados and Cartiers. Nor are they against Casios or Swatches.

Edit: Granted if the technology becomes mature enough to change people's perception, then yes there is a potential for smart watches to bring back watches on people's wrists. At that point it may even compete against established watch makers or cooperate with them. (like these maybe?) But I think smart watches should prove themselves to consumers first before other quality considerations come into play.

I'd say that quality is what gets people to try smartwatches! A watch is often a fashion item, so it's easier to see yourself slipping one on if you know it'll look good on your wrist. The main challenge right now is refining them so that they meet expectations for thinness and battery life.

On that note: I shouldn't make broad statements about Swatch. A lot of its line is cheap, but it makes some luxury watches... and the Sistem51 is a clever piece of engineering.

 

[StrangerGuy]

Good-enough-ism and commoditification setting in on mainstream Android side.
Prices dropping, reducing benefit of subsidies, and increasing popularity of no-contract plans. Increased T-mobile market share.
Phablet fad cooling and resurgence of ~4.5" super-phones.
Increased focus on battery life.
Wearable bubble bursting.

= Samsung quits the China and India market by 2015. They are already slaughtered and increasingly at that by the competition offering better specs at prices lower than their own ~$120 marketing budget per phone.

 

[cliftonite]

A few good examples:

- A Twitter app that actually lets you compose tweets and view your timeline, not just get notifications.
- Starwood Hotels' app will use NFC on the Watch to unlock your hotel door.
- American Airlines is working on an app that lets you get through most of the airport process (i.e. it doesn't just show your ticket).
- Home automation apps from Honeywell and Lutron.
- City Mapper lets you know where you are on mass transit and will "tap" you when your stop approaches.
- BMW will both let you check your car status and get directions to it.

You see the running theme? It's not that Android Wear or Tizen can't do cool stuff (I've used a few Android Wear apps myself), but the emphasis is more on the device as an app platform rather than a passive watch that just happens to run apps.

As for fashion... it ain't just about replacing bands. A cheap-looking plastic casing (i.e. a lot of what's out there) will remain ugly no matter how nice the strap is. You ideally get a watch where the casing looks nice and the bands are designed to match. To me, it looks like ASUS and Motorola are the only ones beyond Apple that really understand this... and you still need either special tools or a nearby watch shop to get the bands replaced.

Doesn't look like SPG will use Apple's NFC and there are Wear watches that have NFC built in. http://venturebeat.com/2014/11/03/h...es-nfc-chips-for-its-iphone-room-key-program/

Tweeting on a watch? Not sure if I would ever use that. And I am sure in time the rest of those apps will come to wear.

 

[lopri]

Qualcomm denies negative S810 rumors.

http://pocketnow.com/2014/12/08/snapdragon-810-delays

Qualcomm states that despite these rumors to the contrary, “everything with Snapdragon 810 remains on track.” Furthermore, the company indicates, “we expect commercial devices to be available in 1H 2015.”

 

[lopri]

I'd say that quality is what gets people to try smartwatches! A watch is often a fashion item, so it's easier to see yourself slipping one on if you know it'll look good on your wrist. The main challenge right now is refining them so that they meet expectations for thinness and battery life.

It is at least debatable whether these beat Casios or Citizens in style. :awe:

 

[Commodus]

It is at least debatable whether these beat Casios or Citizens in style. :awe:

Hah, the Watch Sport in the center is not a good example. Much better (this is the larger 42mm case with a Milanese loop), courtesy of Hodinkee:

http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/hodinkee-apple-watch-review

 

[lopri]

As an aside, I will be curious if AnandTech will beat the drum of color accuracy on Apple watch's screen. Renders and photos make me think it's AMOLED with its black-black. XD (can someone confirm?)

 

[Midwayman]

As an aside, I will be curious if AnandTech will beat the drum of color accuracy on Apple watch's screen. Renders and photos make me think it's AMOLED with its black-black. XD (can someone confirm?)

Only display that makes sense from a power use perspective. Allows some info display with very lower power usage.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Only display that makes sense from a power use perspective. Allows some info display with very lower power usage.

This is pretty much a myth. None of the OLED watches show significantly better power savings than the LCD models, and the most popular watch so far uses LCD. I mean in theory it should be better, but in practice OLED tech is more wasteful than one would assume.

So far the real difference in power savings in OLED is simply generational improvements in technology, like the difference between the S4 screen and the S5 screen. Seeing as how even Samsung's watches don't get their best OLEDs I think this is a completely made up advantage for the screen type in this form factor.

In fact, I see OLED as a disadvantage in a current watch because until the S5 generation daytime viewing for OLEDs was incredibly poor, and you KNOW those watches aren't getting top of the line S5-level screens.

 

[desura]

ho-hum. I'm still very happy with my 2013 Moto X. Zero reason to upgrade to Moto X2.

I suspect the Moto X3 will be met with similar yawns.

The only thing of interest will be Nokia reentering the mobile phone space with Android offerings in 2015. That is all. Phones are now commodities. Quicker than I thought, I'm pretty happy with this development.

 

[lopri]

This is pretty much a myth. None of the OLED watches show significantly better power savings than the LCD models, and the most popular watch so far uses LCD. I mean in theory it should be better, but in practice OLED tech is more wasteful than one would assume.

You are overlooking that the watch screen has to be on all the time. Well, perhaps not a must but it is more desirable that way. I do not think LCD can compete on that ground even against S4-level AMOLED - of course on black watch face with white lettering. (burn-in notwithstanding XD )