Anthrax is everywhere. It's on the cover of Time and Newsweek. It makes up half of National Public Radio's daily coverage. It has spawned dozens of online polls, Gallup polls, and White House approval polls: How is the administration doing in the war against bioterrorism? How likely do you think it is that your mail contains anthrax spores?
Statistically, the answer is as close to zero as makes no odds. If as many as five pieces of mail per day contain anthrax -- and that is much higher than we actually have -- the odds of any given piece containing it are one in 111 million. You've got a much better chance of winning the lottery than receiving an anthrax-infected piece of mail (unless, of course, you work in the White House mailroom). Nevertheless, the town of Turlock, Cal. has set up drop-boxes for incinerating suspicious mail. So far, three people have died from anthrax, or about 0.000001% of the U.S. population. Meanwhile, in the past week, over 800 people have died in automobile accidents.
What is the administration doing about safety on the nation's highways?
Now, I don't want to diminish the importance of these attacks. They do represent a threat that we can and should do something about. But the obsession that has gripped the nation is unwarranted. The issue has received far more attention than it deserves. It seems that everyone wants a story to follow, a soap opera, something that engages the imagination. Nobody wants to hear about traffic safety -- that's boring.
And media mouths will not disappoint them. Everyone with a soapbox wants to be the first to say something really important or prescient about the story. They want to make calls one way or the other, so that, if things go that way, they can say, "I told you so!" and leap to guru status. Then they never have to be right again. Come to think of it, in the final analysis, they don't even have to be right the first time, so long as they made a big enough splash when they
made the initial call.
Statistically, the answer is as close to zero as makes no odds. If as many as five pieces of mail per day contain anthrax -- and that is much higher than we actually have -- the odds of any given piece containing it are one in 111 million. You've got a much better chance of winning the lottery than receiving an anthrax-infected piece of mail (unless, of course, you work in the White House mailroom). Nevertheless, the town of Turlock, Cal. has set up drop-boxes for incinerating suspicious mail. So far, three people have died from anthrax, or about 0.000001% of the U.S. population. Meanwhile, in the past week, over 800 people have died in automobile accidents.
What is the administration doing about safety on the nation's highways?
Now, I don't want to diminish the importance of these attacks. They do represent a threat that we can and should do something about. But the obsession that has gripped the nation is unwarranted. The issue has received far more attention than it deserves. It seems that everyone wants a story to follow, a soap opera, something that engages the imagination. Nobody wants to hear about traffic safety -- that's boring.
And media mouths will not disappoint them. Everyone with a soapbox wants to be the first to say something really important or prescient about the story. They want to make calls one way or the other, so that, if things go that way, they can say, "I told you so!" and leap to guru status. Then they never have to be right again. Come to think of it, in the final analysis, they don't even have to be right the first time, so long as they made a big enough splash when they
made the initial call.
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