Another Hurricane Heading Our Way... fvck

[CTrain]

WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

You may just get your wish..

The latest models have it turning north and hitting SC....

 

[Vortex22]

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

You may just get your wish..

The latest models have it turning north and hitting SC....

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!!1

I mean, it would suck for SC, but w already had our fill of hurricanes

 

[CTrain]

Sorry this thread for me to vent.

Whats the fvcking odd of 2 hurricane direct hit in Central Florida nonetherless....
You know one of the reason why people live in "central" Florida is because the coast cities take the blunt of all hurricane......not us.
Usually all the hurricanes die off before reaching us.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: CTrain

Originally posted by: apoppin

Originally posted by: CTrain
Argh...I can't take this.
I have so much to take care off before I head to Cali.
This sucks.

SoCal has a prediction for a MAJOR quake THIS month.



:roll:

Well, good...cause I'm going to NoCal

So Cal is due . . .

No Cal is OvERdue. . . .


for a "big one"

:Q

:roll:



Seriously, good luck to those in the Hurricane's path!

I went thru Hurricane Iniki (September 11, 1992) on the North Shore of Oahu a few months after i arrived in Hawaii . . . HATED the winds and the destruction . . .

but . . .

(silver lining) . . .

. . . LOVED the surf. The Day BEFORE, i surfed "all time" Makapuu - HUGE waves on the OUTside (i never saw anything b4 or after in a 10 year period to even come close to those PERFECT huge conditions)

The DAY after - it was BEAUTIFUL - you could still see Iniki sitting near Kauai driving PERFECT (UNcrowded) Surf into Pipeline . . . i musta surfed 8 or 9 hours (each day).

 

[Xenon]

Here's the latest discussion from the NHC. Don't like the tone at all.

recon this afternoon and evening indciated the central pressure had
decreased to 939 mb. A dropsonde at 01/1904z indicated winds of 154
kt...or 177 mph...at the 850 mb level. The highest 700 mb recon
flight-level wind at 2210z was 134 kt...equal to about a 121-kt
surface wind. Based on this information...Frances is being held at
120 kt...which may be a little conservative.


The initial motion is 295/12. However...there has been considerbale
wobble in the track the past 12 hours due to the eyewall replacement
cycles that have been occurring. Frances has been moving
west-northwestward for the past 24 hours under the influence of the
subtropical ridge to the north...which is expected to remain intact
through at least 48 hours. The Gulfstream-IV jet and an afres c-130
have been releasing dropsondes around the periphery of Frances. The
sonde data has produced some interesting and disturbing results.
The height data for the various pressure levels...compared to 18z
surrounding upper-air data...appear to be at least 20 meters too
low. However...the wind data clearly indicate a mid-tropospheric
high pressure center near 30n 75w...or about 500 nmi northwest of
Frances with a ridge axis extending west-southwestward across North
Florida and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. In the short term...
this would suggest that Frances should continue moving at 295 or
even 290 degrees motion for the next 24 hours or so. Also...00z
upper-air data indicate that the 18z NOGAPS and 12z UKMET models
have verified the 00z 500 mb ridge and heights the best...while the
18z GFS and GFDL models were much too weak...at least 20 meters too
low...with the strength of the ridge. Since the 00z model runs will
have the new GPS dropsonde data included in those runs for the 06z
advisory...no significant change is being made to the previous
forecast track. However...with high pressure located to the
northwest of Frances...I would not be surprised to the 00z model
tracks shift a little more westward.

Frances is expected to move over warmer water near and within the
Bahama Islands chain in 24-48 hours. Given the already impressive
outflow pattern...some additional strengthening seems plausible.
Also...the very dry mid-level air...30-40 percent humidity...that
Frances has been traversing through and ingesting over the past 5
days is forecast to increase to more than 60 percent in 36-60hr...
which may also help with the intensification process.


Forecaster Stewart

 

[lokiju]

I'm screwed, I'm soooo hoping this thing goes north.

10 Facts about hurricanes

 

[lokiju]

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

Um, how about Andrew and Floyd?

 

[sharkeeper]

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 33a


Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 02, 2004



...Dangerous Hurricane Frances battering the southeastern
Bahamas...strengthens slightly...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Bahamas and
for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida East Coast from
Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. Some or all of the Hurricane Watch area will likely be
upgraded to a Hurricane Warning Thursday morning. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.

At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of severe Hurricane Frances was
located near latitude 22.7 north...longitude 72.5 west or about
35 miles...55 km...northeast of Mayaguana island in the Bahamas.
This is also about 555 miles east-southeast of Palm Beach Florida.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr
...And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will be
moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas this morning...and near
the central Bahamas this afternoon and evening.

Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 145 mph...235 km/hr...with higher gusts. Fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the hurricane hunter
is 937 mb...27.67 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of eleuthra island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas.

Repeating the 2 am AST position...22.7 N... 72.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Beven



Cheers!

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

You may just get your wish..

The latest models have it turning north and hitting SC....

Actually almost all models have an agreement on Eastern Florida, and only one or two have a north turn even past Jacksonville.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

You may just get your wish..

The latest models have it turning north and hitting SC....

Actually almost all models have an agreement on Eastern Florida, and only one or two have a north turn even past Jacksonville.

Check again.

It's now 2/5 that say it will hit Florida..

Seems like it's anyones game at this point.

If these models are right, it could almost be worse in a way.. if it follows the edge of the coastline like that, it could really wreak some coastal havoc.

 

[Led Zeppelin]

Originally posted by: Xenon
Wow

Beautiful but deadly.

wow, nice pics.

 

[CTrain]

Originally posted by: blazert40

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

Um, how about Andrew and Floyd?

I mean Orlando. We haven't had anything in the 24 yrs I've been here.

 

[Led Zeppelin]

Updated @ 06:30 AM:

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
630 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

CORRECTED UPDATE TIME IN TEXT

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...

...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KEYS...FROM OCEAN
REEF TO CRAIG KEY...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE KEYS...FROM CRAIG
KEY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...STATE PARKS IN THE KEYS ARE LIKELY TO CLOSE THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ZONES UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION
UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE AFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF
TO CRAIG KEY...INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF KEY
LARGO...TAVERNIER...AND ISLAMORADA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS...FROM CRAIG KEY THROUGH THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITY OF MARATHON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 480 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO...AND 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WHICH MAKES FRANCES A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB...OR 27.64
INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY. MONROE
COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO
EVACUATION ORDERS FOR RESIDENTS OR VISITORS AT THIS TIME. ALL
PERSONS SHOULD LISTEN FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY AND YOUR
LOCAL MUNICIPAL OFFICIALS IF THEY BECOME NECESSARY. THE MONROE
COUNTY EMERGENCY INFORMATION LINE IS 1 800...9 5 5...5 5 0 4.
RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT BY WINDS
INDOORS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS CONTAIN SOME AMOUNT OF ERROR...AND ALL ARE
ADVISED TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR FAVORITE NEWS MEDIA SOURCE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...WINDS OVER THE KEYS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...AND NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEFLY
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT DURING FRIDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN FLORIDA BAY...
AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
UP TO 10 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOATERS PLANNING TO RELOCATE THEIR CRAFT BY WATER SHOULD PLAN TO DO
SO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
CURRENT TIDE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WHILE NO
DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TIDE LEVELS MAY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES OF THE KEYS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON
WILL OCCUR AT 1151 AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND 1149 PM THURSDAY
EVENING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES AT THE WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL HIGHWAY ONE
BRIDGE WILL OCCUR AT 1203 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 1216 AM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY NIGHT 11 PERCENT FOR
KEY WEST...14 PERCENT FOR MARATHON...AND 20 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM EDT THURSDAY.

 

[Carbo]

Why do some dolts feel it necessary to cut and paste the latest hurricane reports? All of us have access to the same info from the same websites. Stop wasting bandwidth. I'm going to body surf off Dania Pier. See ya on the other side....

 

[badmouse]

Thanks for cut&pasting. It saves me the bother of looking it up.

I'm in NJ, unlikely to be hit by the thing, except rain. But since I had to pump six feet of Floyd out of my basement I respect tropical storms and their power and their unpredictability.

 

[SP33Demon]

Yup, thanks for the cut and paste! Very helpful

 

[Narse]

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

You may just get your wish..

The latest models have it turning north and hitting SC....

Actually almost all models have an agreement on Eastern Florida, and only one or two have a north turn even past Jacksonville.

Check again.

It's now 2/5 that say it will hit Florida..

Seems like it's anyones game at this point.

If these models are right, it could almost be worse in a way.. if it follows the edge of the coastline like that, it could really wreak some coastal havoc.

I guess they changed it since you posted it, They are all showing it hitting Florida.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: Narse

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: CTrain
WTF man. Been living here for 24 yrs and nothing.
Then within 2 weeks, 2 hugh fvcking hurricane ??? WTF
Why could this happen when I was working or going through school.

THis POS hurricane needs to take a detour or something.

You may just get your wish..

The latest models have it turning north and hitting SC....

Actually almost all models have an agreement on Eastern Florida, and only one or two have a north turn even past Jacksonville.

Check again.

It's now 2/5 that say it will hit Florida..

Seems like it's anyones game at this point.

If these models are right, it could almost be worse in a way.. if it follows the edge of the coastline like that, it could really wreak some coastal havoc.

I guess they changed it since you posted it, They are all showing it hitting Florida.

I just refreshed and I see that. Wow.

Sucks to be Florida.

 

[SP33Demon]

My good friend from college lives in Tampa, his whole family left today for New Orleans... he said he hopes his house will still be there when he gets back

 

[glen]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020858
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING FRANCES
REPORTS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 936 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 138 KT AT 700 MB. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL
REPORTED WINDS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS NEAR 125 KT...AND THAT IS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 127 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS SINCE
06Z...ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT THIS CONVECTION IS RATHER ASYMMETRIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. FRANCES CONTINUES ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A FEATURE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE HAVING A PROBLEM FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF. THE
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY SEEMS TO HAVE HAD LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE MODELS...AS THE GFS AND GFDL STILL WANT TO TURN
FRANCES MORE NORTHWARD....WHILE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STILL FORECAST
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GIVEN THIS LACK OF CHANGE...THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE FIRST 72 HR IS BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND CURRENT
MOTION...WITH THIS PART OF THE TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
NOGAPS. AFTER 72 HR...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECASTS. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL
IN SOUTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN JUST OVER 48 HR.
HOWEVER...PEOPLE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT TRACK...
AS SMALL CHANGES IN DIRECTION COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION.

FRANCES CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
DECREASING A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY OF
FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES.
SINCE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR 125 KT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD
TOP COOLING...FRANCES COULD REACH 130-135 KT INTENSITY ON THE UP
SIDE OF THE CURRENT CYCLE.

THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE HURRICANE
WATCH TO BE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AT
THIS TIME AS THE 24 HR FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 22.9N 73.0W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 23.6N 74.4W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.6N 76.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 25.6N 78.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 26.6N 79.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 95 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 84.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND


$$

 

[formulav8]

Well, I am in Orlando and we will get over 100+mph winds again. Charlie really screwed up this town. Frances will be even worse. Especially since the latest track looks like we will get the North and West side of the storm. I still have problems with the house that were not fixed yet since the last hurricane. I have a huge tarp on the roof to cover the missing shingles. I have parts of 2 tree's left that could very well snap. Ohh well, can only hope for the best I guess. I tried to get my wife to leave to a shelter and I could make sure everything goes ok with the house. But she wouldn't have that at all, so it looks like me and my wife will weather it out. I just don't want to lose power for 6days again. It is ruff here to not have AC. I guess it won't kill you though


Jason

 

[SP33Demon]

Good luck Jason. Why don't you chop those branches off with a chainsaw? Or if they're high up, get a tree surgeon?

 

[Narse]

Hope you fair well Jason, I am in Orlando as well. My boss gave us all Today and tomorrow off so we can prepare.

 

[glen]

I changed this from ALL CAPS, so it may be easier to read now.


000
wtnt41 knhc 020858
tcdat1
hurricane frances discussion number 34
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 am edt thu sep 02 2004

an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft monitoring frances
reports a central pressure of 936 mb and maximum flight-level winds
of 138 kt at 700 mb. A dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall
reported winds indicating surface winds near 125 kt...and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory. This is in good agreement
with 127 kt satellite intensity estimates from tafb...sab...and
afwa. Satellite imagery indicates cooling of the cloud tops since
06z...although at the moment this convection is rather asymmetric.

The initial motion is 290/11. Frances continues on the southwest
side of the subtropical ridge...a feature that the large-scale
models are having a problem forecasting the evolution of. The
synoptic surveillance mission yesterday seems to have had little
effect on the models...as the gfs and gfdl still want to turn
frances more northward....while the nogaps and ukmet still forecast
a west-northwestward motion across florida into the gulf of mexico.
Given this lack of change...the only change in the forecast track
during the first 72 hr is based on the initial position and current
motion...with this part of the track in best agreement with the
nogaps. After 72 hr...the track is shifted westward toward the
ukmet and nogaps forecasts. The forecast track calls for landfall
in southeast or east central florida in just over 48 hr.
However...people should not focus too closely on the exact track...
As small changes in direction could make a significant difference
in the landfall location.

Frances continues to show impressive outflow...although it may be
decreasing a little in the northwestern quadrant. The intensity of
frances continues to be controlled by concentric eyewall cycles.
Since these are difficult to forecast...the intensity forecast will
call for 125 kt intensity until landfall. Given the current cloud
top cooling...frances could reach 130-135 kt intensity on the up
side of the current cycle.

The southward shift in the forecast track requires the hurricane
watch to be extended southward into the upper florida keys. A
hurricane warning is not being issued for southeastern florida at
this time as the 24 hr forecast keeps the tropical storm winds
offshore. However...hurricane warnings are likely on the next
advisory.

Forecaster beven

forecast positions and max winds

initial 02/0900z 22.9n 73.0w 125 kt
12hr vt 02/1800z 23.6n 74.4w 125 kt
24hr vt 03/0600z 24.6n 76.3w 125 kt
36hr vt 03/1800z 25.6n 78.0w 125 kt
48hr vt 04/0600z 26.6n 79.5w 125 kt
72hr vt 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w 95 kt...inland
96hr vt 06/0600z 30.5n 84.0w 35 kt...inland
120hr vt 07/0600z 33.5n 85.5w 25 kt...inland