Another AMD leaked slide shows upcoming BARTS is based on Radeon 5xxx architecture...

[Seero]

Yes, sales of one product affect the sales of other products. That is not in dispute. The OP said that the 460 specifically was causing problems, to which I said we dont really know that because we don't have that information. Yes, we could bring in sales numbers, but until someone does, we do not have that info, hence, my point. If you have those numbers, please share, otherwise, you have no factual idea either.

I did, see my other post. I don't have a proof, but that does serve as an indication that 460 sells well. By looking at the red percentages from the 5xxx series, it does indicate 460 is hurting the 5xxx series. Do not get me wrong. I am not saying "460 is killing AMD" or "AMD is going to die" or anything of that nature.

The 460 competes in one product segment. It does not matter to people that want the best of the best and will spend $500 on it, as they are not in the market for a 460. As with all things in an economy, your completion is for people that would buy your product, not those that would NOT buy your product.

Are you sure that is economy? It sounds like marketing.

I have no idea where this came from. My only point, and the only thing I said, was that the forums "feelings about the success of cards" has very little correlation to what is actually happening.

You and I, are part of this forum. Your point is that you have a different opinion and that particular opinion requires proving.

That is one heck of a read on what I am saying. Again, we DO NOT have any factual information about sales, demand, supply etc and have no way to know how well any card, including the 460, is selling.

You want proof from me to show that "460 sales well" and I did. Can you provide a proof that states otherwise?

Your statement that the 460 is selling better than any other GPU must be based on something, although I have not seen it publicly released how many IC's AMD or Nvidia are selling. Care to share your source?

See above.

I think you are agreeing with me. The design for the 6XXX series has been in place before the 460 came to market and were probably designed around the same time. Check out IDC's post about respins and redesigns, as I think you may have the two concepts a bit backward.

Actually, I don't. I don't think IDC agrees with you either, but I may be wrong.

How do you know this? Again, you are asserting this as fact, but as far as any of us can tell, it is just your opinion. You do not know what AMD's plans were with this design. In any event, they certainly had backup plans and would have known about node problems before the general public (i.e. us).

I did.

I think other posters have explained that your statement is false. By that logic, the 5770 cores are a different generation than the chips that power the 5830, 5850 and 5870. They are somewhat different *designs* but they share a common architecture (building blocks) as their larger brothers. Same goes for the Fermi family.

I don't recall I said 460 isn't a part of the Fermi architecture.

 

[Seero]

And your reasoning is right?

I didn't say I am right, or someone else is wrong. I did stated my reasoning about the issue. So did you. Just because we have differences in opinion does not make you my enemy, and I hope the same holds true in the other way around.

That's your logic reasoning, not facts. Do you have proof of such claims? I somehow doubt it.

You are asking me for a proof on a trivial business fundamentals. I don't have a textbook with me atm. However, I didn't say your reasoning to the price drop is wrong. I said there can be other reasoning for the price drop.

You downplayed the steam survey when I used as a reference of AMD's marketshare and now suddenly you use it as a fact to support your statement, pot meet kettle?

Check the post and see if I have contradicted myself.

You don't, that was just my apportation to the thread.

very well.

 

[GaiaHunter]

Seero, Steam survey numbers don't reflect sales directly, they reflect market share variations.

There is a difference.

The 5800 is increasing in numbers. You can easily see that in the Total cards market share.

The fact is for the 5800 and 5700 series to keep their DX11 market share they need to sell around 60 units of 5700+5800 for every 100 DX11 cards sold.

 

[Seero]

Seero, Steam survey numbers don't reflect sales directly, they reflect market share variations.

I know.

The 5800 is increasing in numbers. You can easily see that in the Total cards market share.

The fact is for the 5800 and 5700 series to keep their DX11 market share they need to sell around 60 units of 5700+5800 for every 100 DX11 cards sold.

lets do a little math
total share of 460 in Dx11 is 3.43%. Total Dx11 over all video card is 10.17%. That means, total share of 460 over all video card is 3.43 * 10.17% = .3488%. Compare this to July 0.57 * 8.62% = .0491%. subtract the 2 and you will get roughly .3% (.29967%), where 5800 series is only .22%, which consists 3 cards.

This itself isn't enough to claim the sales of 460 surpasses 5800 series, but it does show that it is growing fast. With the recent price drop, it is very likely that it will sell even faster.

 

[Caribbean Geek]

DX11 cards has a total market share of 10.17%, but the flaw is the following, you are comparing the GTX 460 share results from the DX11 GPU stats which is 3.43% against the HD 5800 share results from the All Videocards results which is 3.17%, isn't that unfair?.

If you use the same graphic results where you obtained the GTX 460 results which was 3.43%, the HD 5800 series scored 31.15%. The ideal equation to calculate the recently sold cards is to obtain the GTX 460 results from the All Videocards diagram where the GTX 460 results aren't available yet.

 

[RussianSensation]

I am not making this up. The code name Fermi refers to an architecture. If GT100 is the first generation(chip) based on this architecture, then gt104 is the second generation(chip) based on this architecture.

You are confused. GF104 to GF100 is what Juniper is to Cypress. Both companies create different chips based on the same architecture to target different markets (i.e., high-end and mainstream and low end). GF104 has nothing to do with Fermi 2 whatsoever.

Just like 9700Pro and 9800Pro or G80 and G92 represent the same generation, even though they weren't released at the same time. Why do you think everyone was disappointed when Nvidia rebadged 8800GT(X) into 9800GT(X)? They basically created GeForce 9 series out of thin air since it had nothing to do with a new generation.

How you think GF104 is 2nd generation of Fermi is beyond me (unless you mean 2nd revision i.e., A2 chip of the first generation architecture codenamed Fermi). I guess GT200 and GT200b are 2 different generations to you too?

Finally, even NV have stated that the delay of Fermi will not impact the launch of Fermi II. Did you hear NV say anything about launching Fermi II in 2010 or any review site? :sneaky:

 

[GaiaHunter]

I know.


lets do a little math
total share of 460 in Dx11 is 3.43%. Total Dx11 over all video card is 10.17%. That means, total share of 460 over all video card is 3.43 * 10.17% = .3488%. Compare this to July 0.57 * 8.62% = .0491%. subtract the 2 and you will get roughly .3% (.29967%), where 5800 series is only .22%, which consists 3 cards.

This itself isn't enough to claim the sales of 460 surpasses 5800 series, but it does show that it is growing fast. With the recent price drop, it is very likely that it will sell even faster.

460 is 2 cards and less expensive than 2 of the 3 5800 cards (and the 5830 isn't that popular).

And the 5800 have been selling for almost a year now.

So lets give it a couple of months to see the evolution and then see what the 6000 series bring to the table.

 

[brybir]

I did, see my other post. I don't have a proof, but that does serve as an indication that 460 sells well.

/snip
You want proof from me to show that "460 sales well" and I did. Can you provide a proof that states otherwise?

Well....you didn't have proof, but an indication (correct)...and then you suddenly had proof again (incorrect)....so which is it? (hint, read the parenthesis for the correct answer).

I have no vested interesting in sales of any of the companies. I dont work for either of them and I do not own any stock. I merely pointed out that you stating your opinion as hard fact, initally without any backing, and then pointing only to the steam survey and calling everyone else out to prove the steam survey wrong.

So lets try this (repeat after me):

"The Steam Survey is but one statistical sampling of one group of consumers and therefore cannot be generalized to the broader consumer population without more information"


So, after stating that a few times, ask yourself "self, if the Steam survey only represents a subset of consumers and I don't know the relationship between that subset and the general consumer population, how can I claim that it demonstrates anything other than the trend of steam users that submit a hardware survey?". And then your other personality would answer "exactly self, you cannot, for that would be a statistically invalid comparison, I am glad you figured that out!"

 

[wlee15]

Steam Hardware
Look that the number of people in percentage who uses 460, and the change between July and August.
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 460 +2.86%, from 0.57% to 3.43% in a single month. Compare this with any other cards and you will see the growth of 460 surpasses all other cards.

I understand this isn't a proof, but more like a fact which can be used to support my statement. Can you now get a piece of fact or evidence indicating 460 isn't selling well?

I don't recall I stated anything about speed.

Well that section only includes DX11 gpu, when compared to the total GPU in use on Steam the total percentage is only 0.35%

 

[bryanW1995]

So you guys think this is some kind of hidden witch hunt to sort out the leaks where different OEMS are given different numbers?

amd's design honcho is obsessive out unintended leaks. he fells that these leaks hurt amd tremendously and has gone on record many times as saying that he will put a stop to it. don't know if this particular story is a false flag, but amd is definitely working harder these days to keep better control of their partners at least.

btw, tempered talked about this whole "32nm is late" thing several weeks ago. cayman xt had to go with about 3/4 of what they originally intended for NI b/c they wanted to keep size/power/heat/etc under control. however, there is absolutely no reason that the delay in process node shrink would deter them from changing the arch. in fact, it might have encouraged them to do so because 40nm is now a much more mature and well understood arch.

 

[Seero]

DX11 cards has a total market share of 10.17%, but the flaw is the following, you are comparing the GTX 460 share results from the DX11 GPU stats which is 3.43% against the HD 5800 share results from the All Videocards results which is 3.17%, isn't that unfair?.

If you use the same graphic results where you obtained the GTX 460 results which was 3.43%, the HD 5800 series scored 31.15%. The ideal equation to calculate the recently sold cards is to obtain the GTX 460 results from the All Videocards diagram where the GTX 460 results aren't available yet.

What are you talking about?

 

[Seero]

Well that section only includes DX11 gpu, when compared to the total GPU in use on Steam the total percentage is only 0.35%

Correct. I have another post about that.

 

[Seero]

Well....you didn't have proof, but an indication (correct)...and then you suddenly had proof again (incorrect)....so which is it? (hint, read the parenthesis for the correct answer).

It is easy to lose track of how it began. You said

That is one heck of a read on what I am saying. Again, we DO NOT have any factual information about sales, demand, supply etc and have no way to know how well any card, including the 460, is selling.

So I brought in the steam survey. I didn't say 460 beats XXX in sales, I said it serves as a good indication indicating 460 is selling well. It also serves as a proof that "there exists information, or ways to find out how well 460 is selling."

I have no vested interesting in sales of any of the companies. I dont work for either of them and I do not own any stock. I merely pointed out that you stating your opinion as hard fact, initally without any backing, and then pointing only to the steam survey and calling everyone else out to prove the steam survey wrong.

I am still waiting for some backing on your opinion.

So lets try this (repeat after me):

"The Steam Survey is but one statistical sampling of one group of consumers and therefore cannot be generalized to the broader consumer population without more information"

If the group is not biased, why not?

So, after stating that a few times, ask yourself "self, if the Steam survey only represents a subset of consumers and I don't know the relationship between that subset and the general consumer population, how can I claim that it demonstrates anything other than the trend of steam users that submit a hardware survey?". And then your other personality would answer "exactly self, you cannot, for that would be a statistically invalid comparison, I am glad you figured that out!"

And the self of Seero said: "If the subset is unbiased, why not? That is what simpling is about."

 

[Ares1214]

The 460 is a good card and all, but it isnt exactly putting AMD in the hot seat like people are saying. Almost every other card NV has let out in fermi has been a disappointment. So AMD is still very much on top currently, and the 6xxx series looks like it just happens to be putting the 460 down. Hence the price falling like crazy. But i doubt the 6xxx series was planned intentionally to counter the 460.

 

[GaiaHunter]

Again Seero that wasn't what you said.

You said AMD doesn't have a solution against the GTX460 and that is impacting AMD sales of the 5800 series.

The increase in share, on the Steam Survey, of the 5800 series was of 0.21% between June and July and 0.20% between July and August. April to May, for example, saw an increase of only 0.11% and May to June 0.21%.

So as you can see, the GTX460 didn't put pressure on the 5800 sales.

The 5700 might actually have been more affected, but there is a bigger data anomaly on previous months.

 

[happy medium]

You said AMD doesn't have a solution against the GTX460 and that is impacting AMD sales of the 5800 series.

In all fairness , they don't. They have a 170$ 5830 or the $270 5850. Thats a preety big price/performance gap. The current sweet spot for a gaming gpu is $200, and thats where the gtx460 sits.
I would have to say the 6770 can't come soon enough for AMD.

 

[GaiaHunter]

In all fairness , they don't. They have a 170$ 5830 or the $270 5850. Thats a preety big price/performance gap. The current sweet spot for a gaming gpu is $200, and thats where the gtx460 sits.
I would have to say the 6770 can't come soon enough for AMD.

If someone says AMD doesn't have any card on the $200 segment, that is one thing.

If someone says AMD isn't selling great anymore because of the GTX 460 that is another thing.

If you look at the prices AMD simply hasn't made a move on the $200 spot, other than lowering the 5830 (and most likely just to clear the 5830 inventory).

And of course, the GTX460 risks being thrown out of that spot by Barts XT after beeing on that spot for what, 3 months?

Sincerely, I'm not even sure if AMD is producing anything bigger than Juniper from the 5000 series atm.

 

[happy medium]

And of course, the GTX460 risks being thrown out of that spot by Barts XT after beeing on that spot for what, 3 months?

Another thread states the mid-range 6870 (A.K.A 6770) will only be as fast as a 5850. So thats only 8 percent faster then a gtx 460. It better launch under 200$ to be competative vs the gtx 460. The gtx460 will be far below the 200$ mark by then.

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/...ts-launches-in-october-as-radeon-hd-6800.html

 

[GaiaHunter]

Another thread states the mid-range 6870 (A.K.A 6770) will only be as fast as a 5850. So thats only 8 percent faster then a gtx 460. It better launch under 200$ to be competative vs the gtx 460. The gtx460 will be far below the 200$ mark by then.

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/...ts-launches-in-october-as-radeon-hd-6800.html

Barts XT should be considerable smaller than GF104 and so have no problems competing on price.

That is why the current state of affairs is weird - Cypress and GF104 are around same size (some sources claim GF104 is slightly bigger, others slightly smaller) so AMD shouldn't have problem competing with the GTX460 with the 5850, but so far have declined to do so.

(and by the way I linked to that article before MrK6, just look a few pages back on the same thread )

 

[RussianSensation]

Another thread states the mid-range 6870 (A.K.A 6770) will only be as fast as a 5850. So thats only 8 percent faster then a gtx 460. It better launch under 200$ to be competative vs the gtx 460. The gtx460 will be far below the 200$ mark by then.

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/...ts-launches-in-october-as-radeon-hd-6800.html

The link you posted mentions: "That Barts will be offering good performance for a mid-range circuit is pretty obvious, but exactly how good is not as certain, but more information should appear very soon."

Therefore, we have no idea how much faster 6870 will be compared to 5850 or GTX460 . That article didn't mention anything about 8% hehe.

It's funny that in a couple of days, we went from Barts XT = 5870 to now only competing with GTX460 768mb/1GB. My point is it's all speculation.

We also know that GF100 and GF104 are not fully enabled chips released in the form of 480/460. With better yields over time, it's logical to assume that some manufactured GF100 and GF104 cores will be fully functioning chips from the production line. What is NV doing with these full chips exactly? Come to think of it, they had since April 2010 to collect 6 months of at least some fully working GF100s.

 

[Silverforce11]

The gtx460 1gb being under $200 isn't going to be around for long, as NV will run out of already made GPU to sell at a loss. It's cypress sized. Barts is much smaller and can be priced however ATI wants to compete.

Something not really talked about is with the 6k series, there's a focus on eyeinfinity, with more outputs making it cheaper for users to implement. That, and new beefed up TMUs and ROPs means going to 3 monitor will have less performance drop than the 5k gen. For $200 (price will depend on gtx460 pricing at launch), you get a 5850 with enhanced dx11, uvd3 and better eyeinfinity. How low can NV go with their gtx460 pricing to counter that? I'd have to say $200 for a 1gb gddr5 ~340mm2 card, packaged and shipped, is a slight loss.

 

[Seero]

GaiaHunter:
In my first post, I said:

I bet someone can bring in the sales chart from July to show now the sales of 460 impact other video cards.

Which is a response to

Well, what should tip you off is that the 460 is not giving AMD "tons of headaches".

However, you understood it as:

You said AMD doesn't have a solution against the GTX460 and that is impacting AMD sales of the 5800 series.

The increase in share, on the Steam Survey, of the 5800 series was of 0.21% between June and July and 0.20% between July and August. April to May, for example, saw an increase of only 0.11% and May to June 0.21%.

So as you can see, the GTX460 didn't put pressure on the 5800 sales.

The 5700 might actually have been more affected, but there is a bigger data anomaly on previous months.

Again, the rate of sales of 460 appears to surpass other cards, but I didn't say it does damages in anyway to AMD yet as I don't have the support to make such claim. All I can say is, 460 is by far much more meaningful than 480/470.

In my second post to brybir I said:

I did, see my other post. I don't have a proof, but that does serve as an indication that 460 sells well. By looking at the red percentages from the 5xxx series, it does indicate 460 is hurting the 5xxx series. Do not get me wrong. I am not saying "460 is killing AMD" or "AMD is going to die" or anything of that nature.

Again, I didn't say "460 is making a hole in AMD's bank", but there exists an indication of a declining rate of sales on 5xxx series in the Dx11 segment while 460 is the sharpest one with a 2.86% growth.

And my reply to you was

...This itself isn't enough to claim the sales of 460 surpasses 5800 series, but it does show that it is growing fast. With the recent price drop, it is very likely that it will sell even faster.

Am I missing something?

 

[RussianSensation]

The gtx460 1gb being under $200 isn't going to be around for long, as NV will run out of already made GPU to sell at a loss.

They can't manufacture more? How do you know they sell GTX460s at a loss? Ati probably has far better margins on 5850 than NV does on GTX460. There is no evidence to support that $150-240 GTX460s are all sold at a loss.

For $200 (price will depend on gtx460 pricing at launch), you get a 5850 with enhanced dx11, uvd3 and better eyeinfinity. How low can NV go with their gtx460 pricing to counter that?

Ya DX11 performance has to be improved.

Also, what about overclocking? We know that GTX460 can overclock another 25%+.

Honestly though, it's not hard to improve from 5770 which can barely beat a 4870 or a GTX460 and gets whooped by a 4890. 13 months later, I expect HD6770 to smoke the 5770.

 

[OCGuy]

The gtx460 1gb being under $200 isn't going to be around for long, as NV will run out of already made GPU to sell at a loss. It's cypress sized. Barts is much smaller and can be priced however ATI wants to compete.

Something not really talked about is with the 6k series, there's a focus on eyeinfinity, with more outputs making it cheaper for users to implement. That, and new beefed up TMUs and ROPs means going to 3 monitor will have less performance drop than the 5k gen. For $200 (price will depend on gtx460 pricing at launch), you get a 5850 with enhanced dx11, uvd3 and better eyeinfinity. How low can NV go with their gtx460 pricing to counter that? I'd have to say $200 for a 1gb gddr5 ~340mm2 card, packaged and shipped, is a slight loss.

I honestly dont even know what to say about this guy anymore.

 

[RussianSensation]

I honestly dont even know what to say about this guy anymore.

The archnemesis of Wreckage! :biggrin: I can't wait to see both of them duke it out.