Android phone growth slowing?

[Pliablemoose]

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/30/nielsen-androids-lead-over-ios-may-have-stopped-growing/

Only a point or so difference in the last 3 months change in marketshare, between iOS, Android, and RIM.

The potential changes on the horizon are whether Microsoft's offering and the iPhone being available on TMobile & or Sprint will change up the mix.

Also, Neilson has a breakdown of data consumption by users, broken down by OS:

 

[tatteredpotato]

I think we're going to be seeing a lot of fighting for the RIM marketshare. At this point a lot of the RIM phones are probably still enterprise devices, so whoever can provide the best device for that has a good opportunity for growth yet IMO.

If I were MS I would be looking at that to regain a foothold in the market.

 

[Pliablemoose]

It'll be interesting to see if the theory that Android's growth was due to the iPhone only being available on AT&T, the stats seem to suggest that may have been the case.

Also, these figures are US only...

 

[Dulanic]

It'll be interesting to see if the theory that Android's growth was due to the iPhone only being available on AT&T, the stats seem to suggest that may have been the case.

Also, these figures are US only...

How much was anyone expecting them to keep growing on a ongoing basis. I mean yes overall market share of course, but units sold no. I expect them to stick at about 1/3 of the units sold, which in turn will continue to grow their overall market share. These 2 numbers are completely different.

 

[WelshBloke]

How much was anyone expecting them to keep growing on a ongoing basis. I mean yes overall market share of course, but units sold no. I expect them to stick at about 1/3 of the units sold, which in turn will continue to grow their overall market share. These 2 numbers are completely different.

Its amazing how much the mobile space has changed in the last couple of years.

The first Android phone was released late 2008, so they have gone from 0% to 36% in roughly 2.5 years. Yeah, there's no way they were going to keep that level of growth.

 

[cronos]

I think we're going to be seeing a lot of fighting for the RIM marketshare. At this point a lot of the RIM phones are probably still enterprise devices, so whoever can provide the best device for that has a good opportunity for growth yet IMO.

If I were MS I would be looking at that to regain a foothold in the market.

I completely agree with this and have said so numerous times before.

This is definitely WP7 chance of glory. Rather than banging its head trying hard to compete with the cool, cute, and fancy world of iOS and Android, Microsoft should first focus on the professionalism and robustness of corporate and enterprise services that RIM is trying to desperately holding on with slippery hands.

Microsoft has a head start already with Exchange in their back pocket, so all they need to do is continue on that path and aim straight on for this market share. They need to throw big money on it to make significant improvements and create new innovations. I don't see why WP7 wouldn't make a killing fast if it's targeted this way. After a year or two then they can slowly diverse to target the more 'popular' market.

 

[Monster_Munch]

Android managed to capture the budget smartphone market ignored by Apple and RIM. Once that market is nearly saturated the growth will obviously slow down.

 

[Dulanic]

Android managed to capture the budget smartphone market ignored by Apple and RIM. Once that market is nearly saturated the growth will obviously slow down.

I am pretty sure the SGS, Evo, SGSII and more weren't targetted at the "budget" market. Not saying the budget market hasn't helped, it has.

 

[Monster_Munch]

Yeah not all of them are budget, but some of the big sellers are cheap phones that us geeks don't take any notice of.

I've got an app on the android market that only requires android 1.6 and this is what google tells me are the most popular devices for people using that app.

2nd is the HTC Wildfire and 6th is the Sony Ericsson X10.

I see different results for another app that requires android 2.1 since many of the cheap phones either don't have full 2.1 or the users aren't tech savvy enough to update the software.

 

[sciwizam]

I think it could also be that there were not many major phone releases during the Feb-Apr period. Most of them, announced during either CES or MWC, have release dates in Q2 or Q3.

 

[zerocool84]

What that graph shows is that the market as a whole is slowing down since there wasn't a big change for anyone. I'm sure we can expect that to jump a little in August/September and then again for the holiday season.

 

[sciwizam]

BTW, after looking at the Fortune article, it looks like it's written by a fanboy to say the least. The writer's comparing a February to April dataset to a single month data point taken during the middle of that 3 month period in March. The original Nielsen article didn't make any kind of analysis about Android growth.

The most logical way would be comparing the latest 3 month data to the previous 3 month data.

Nov'10 to Jan'11

Feb'11 to Apr'11

There you have it:

Android: 29% to 36% = +7
iOS: 27% to 26% = -1
RIM: 27% to 23% = -4

The lead went from Android +2, to Android +10. Nice analysis there, Mr. Fortune writer.

 

[gsaldivar]

Android: 29% to 36% = +7

"Android phone growth slows by -7% in 2011"

 

[theeedude]

Next growth step for Android is the dumb-phone retirement cycle in the sub $200 no-contract segment. LG Optimus V and similar low end devices are at dump-phone price levels now. This is the new frontier, and it's all about the unsubsidized price of the phone here.

 

[phoenix79]

I completely agree with this and have said so numerous times before.

This is definitely WP7 chance of glory. Rather than banging its head trying hard to compete with the cool, cute, and fancy world of iOS and Android, Microsoft should first focus on the professionalism and robustness of corporate and enterprise services that RIM is trying to desperately holding on with slippery hands.

Microsoft has a head start already with Exchange in their back pocket, so all they need to do is continue on that path and aim straight on for this market share. They need to throw big money on it to make significant improvements and create new innovations. I don't see why WP7 wouldn't make a killing fast if it's targeted this way. After a year or two then they can slowly diverse to target the more 'popular' market.

I have to agree. If MS can integrate WP7 with exchange well, and then add Sharepoint and Office integration, they will set themselves up pretty well for the enterprise market.