Analysts confused by Intels projections [FUD]

[Hitman928]

AMD earned $1.59 per share in that time frame while Intel earned $2.18. What's your point?

That AMD's risk/reward factor paid off? Sure, intel earned $2.18, but you also had to pay 10x for price of entry into an intel share.

Given $1000 to invest during the time period, between the two you would have had:

intel : ~%18.75 ROI for $187 gained (dividend included)
AMD : ~%60 ROI for ~$600 gained (does not offer dividend)

You tell me which is the bigger number. AMD was a bigger risk, but offered a bigger reward. Now, I'm not trying to get into market strategies or why you would want to choose intel for the long term, etc, etc, I was just pointing out in my original reply that choosing an arbitrary time frame to compare the two is pointless as the "better" investment will go back and forth depending on which time frame you choose.

edit: Just in case people thinking I'm only trying to favor AMD in my replies, I've actually traded on both AMD and intc with positive returns on both this year. I went with bullish trades on both being long on stock and also with call options.

 

[ZOXXO]

That AMD's risk/reward factor paid off? Sure, intel earned $2.18, but you also had to pay 10x for price of entry into an intel share.

Given $1000 to invest during the time period, between the two you would have had:

intel : ~%18.75 ROI for $187 gained (dividend included)
AMD : ~%60 ROI for ~$600 gained (does not offer dividend)

You tell me which is the bigger number. AMD was a bigger risk, but offered a bigger reward. Now, I'm not trying to get into market strategies or why you would want to choose intel for the long term, etc, etc, I was just pointing out in my original reply that choosing an arbitrary time frame to compare the two is pointless as the "better" investment will go back and forth depending on which time frame you choose.

edit: Just in case people thinking I'm only trying to favor AMD in my replies, I've actually traded on both AMD and intc with positive returns on both this year. I went with bullish trades on both being long on stock and also with call options.

One thousand dollars was not a given. Given 1000 shares, 218 is the bigger number. Which would you prefer 1000 shares of Intel or $1000 worth of AMD.

I do agree this is pointless as stock performance and unit growth projections do not necessarily have much to do with one another.

Enjoy.

 

[mrmt]

Why are you guys comparing a junk stock like AMD with a blue chip stock like Intel? They are not in the same league in every metric you pick, except that they share the same sector as a main source of revenue.

For those with a short memory AMD spent the last two quarters detailing how they would survive with their dwindling cash reserves. It's obvious that an speculative stock like this will yield good returns but carry a lot of risks, no? What about the guys that entered 15 months ago and saw their holdings go down all the way from $8 a share to $1.80. Is this guy happy about AMD? I doubt.

 

[galego]

How about year to year - -29.94% for AMD and -10.88% for Intel, we can play with statistics all day.

Analysts are not playing. Look at the trend. Maybe it is best observed at 1m.

Haswell release can be reasonably assumed to increase intel cpu shipments in the short run, regardless of your opinion of intel's long term viability and/or your preference in cpu company. The 2nd half of 2012 was dominated by talk of the newer/faster/better/power-sipping haswell chips that would be shipping in 2013, and I think that most unbiased observers will agree that news of this kind is likely to get at least some people to delay their imminent cpu/computer purchase by 6-12 months.

It is not just my opinion, but the opinion of a bunch of analysts whom I have cited. Most people will agree that Haswell release has been a complete disappointment. A moderator claims that Haswell is Intel bulldozer.

 

[SiliconWars]

For those with an even shorter memory, AMD spent the last quarter more than doubling.

 

[mrmt]

For those with an even shorter memory, AMD spent the last quarter more than doubling.

Did you see some big change in AMD fundamentals from one quarter to another? No? Then either speculators forced the stock down or speculators are buoying the stock to make money in a future date. Pick your choice.

 

[galego]

Did you see some big change in AMD fundamentals from one quarter to another? No? Then either speculators forced the stock down or speculators are buoying the stock to make money in a future date. Pick your choice.

Maybe you would open a thread about AMD and explain your theories there. This thread is about Intel. More concretely about their unreal projections.

 

[Arachnotronic]

one could argue someone with the name like yours shouldn't call others a fanboys.

Lack of performance increase is not helping with sales. People may be waiting for next gen to come out, so they know where to aim with their upgrades.

Do you really think your average Joe isn't upgrading because Haswell should have had a +15% IPC boost?

 

[galego]

The conclusions of all the analysts cited above coincide with that by Piper Jaffray, who downgraded Intel from "Neutral" to "Underweight" some few days ago

http://www.dividend.com/news/2013/piper-jaffray-downgrades-intel-to-underweight-intc/

Intel Corporation (INTC) is not recommended at this time

 

[blackened23]

Do you really think your average Joe isn't upgrading because Haswell should have had a +15% IPC boost?

I suppose he thinks that since the desktop market is so compelling and lucrative right now with sales increasing by double digits per quarter, that desktop haswell is the reason for a misinformed analyst to downgrade intel.

Let's analyze what intel is doing wrong. How they aren't meeting the expectations of the market:

I mean, there's the fact that mobile Haswell ULV has 13 hours (more than an ipad) of battery life while having better performance than IVB, and the fact that intel has the #1 iGPU performance now, leaving AMD in the dust. Then there's the new Macbook air selling like hotcakes thanks to the Haswell ULV. Nope, that definitely doesn't factor into intel's sales. Let's see here, to summarize, we have better than ARM SOC battery life, we have the best possible iGPU performance, and better than IVB mobile CPU performance. CLEARLY, intel is doing something WRONG here. We all know mobile doesn't sell. Only desktops sell, am I right? I guess intel should emulate AMDs business model of being a not for profit organization. Definitely a way to get some credibility among the desktop crowd.:whiste:

 

[galego]

I suppose he thinks that since the desktop market is so compelling and lucrative right now with sales increasing by double digits per quarter, that desktop haswell is the reason for a misinformed analyst to downgrade intel.

Let's analyze what intel is doing wrong. How they aren't meeting the expectations of the market:

I mean, there's the fact that mobile Haswell ULV has 13 hours (more than an ipad) of battery life while having better performance than IVB, and the fact that intel has the #1 iGPU performance now, leaving AMD in the dust. Then there's the new Macbook air selling like hotcakes thanks to the Haswell ULV. Nope, that definitely doesn't factor into intel's sales. Let's see here, to summarize, we have better than ARM SOC battery life, we have the best possible iGPU performance, and better than IVB mobile CPU performance. CLEARLY, intel is doing something WRONG here. We all know mobile doesn't sell. Only desktops sell, am I right? I guess intel should emulate AMDs business model of being a not for profit organization. Definitely a way to get some credibility among the desktop crowd.:whiste:

Once again, both server and mobile markets were analyzed as well.

 

[frozentundra123456]

For those with an even shorter memory, AMD spent the last quarter more than doubling.

Not that hard to double when you are at rock bottom, what 1 or 2 bucks a share.

 

[Hitman928]

One thousand dollars was not a given. Given 1000 shares, 218 is the bigger number. Which would you prefer 1000 shares of Intel or $1000 worth of AMD.

I do agree this is pointless as stock performance and unit growth projections do not necessarily have much to do with one another.

Enjoy.

Yes, I don't want to belabor the issue as I feel that you are arguing something different than the point I was trying to make.

Why are you guys comparing a junk stock like AMD with a blue chip stock like Intel? They are not in the same league in every metric you pick, except that they share the same sector as a main source of revenue.

For those with a short memory AMD spent the last two quarters detailing how they would survive with their dwindling cash reserves. It's obvious that an speculative stock like this will yield good returns but carry a lot of risks, no? What about the guys that entered 15 months ago and saw their holdings go down all the way from $8 a share to $1.80. Is this guy happy about AMD? I doubt.

This is part of the point I was trying to make. The market doesn't care where you've been (for the most part), only where you are and where you're going mostly in the shorter term. If you only take little section of time as the post I was replying to, or the op, and make an assumption, that assumption most likely will be horribly misguided.

Did you see some big change in AMD fundamentals from one quarter to another? No? Then either speculators forced the stock down or speculators are buoying the stock to make money in a future date. Pick your choice.

No real change in fundamentals at all. Honestly, I think what happened is that the broader investment market finally got the news that AMD is the sole supplier of computational chips in the next-gen consoles and reacted positively. AMD had a decent volume of shorts against it which got put into a squeeze from the positive reaction. However, rather than another sell-off which happens most times after a squeeze, the price stuck. My theory is that there are still quite a few investors who got into the stock at a much higher price hoping for it to go up more before settling, and AMD got some press coverage on some popular market sites/channels, giving it an influx of interested investors. Personally, I think it is overbought currently and will probably make a correction in the next month or two, we'll see.

How does this compare to intel and the op? Again, the market only cares where you are and where you're going. For this reason only I feel like their stock (not the company itself necessarily, you need to be able to distinguish where the two coincide and where they don't) is a little soft right now until they can really get a foot hold into mobile. Again, just my opinion, I could be wrong. Adding to that, many stocks, including semi's, are fairly cyclical, and so you have good times and bad times compared to the market, that's just how it goes. In conclusion, even if intel does underperform for the next quarter or two, focusing on that is horribly short sighted and nothing to draw a conclusion from.

 

[Idontcare]

OMG, this is great! Mind if I use it in my sig?

LOL, go for it if you like 😀

 

[guskline]

IDC, you truly are a "Wordsmith". I enjoy your posts.

 

[USER8000]

I was reading through this thread and noticed the following:

Ya think? This guy is literally an insane AMD fanboy desperate for his warped reality to come true.

Now we're resorting to personal attacks. I guess if you can't have a civilized discussion, just call the opposition "insane".

Why do people throw hissy fits so often on this forum??

 

[NTMBK]

I was reading through this thread and noticed the following:





Why do people throw hissy fits so often on this forum??

Why did you bring back this worthless 5 month old post, just to stalk Intel17? 🙄

 

[USER8000]

Why did you bring back this worthless 5 month old post, just to stalk Intel17? 🙄

Has my posting history showed that I stalked him?? Nope. Perhaps you are stalking him,as his defender of sorts. Anyone,just to please you I will say I was wrong then?? OK?? Good. I don't want to annoy you in anyway or your friend. Mods please delete/edit my post as I was "obviously" wrong.

 

[Sable]

Why do people throw hissy fits so often on this forum??

You mean like people getting REALLY pissy and bumping yonks old threads to try to make some point? 😵

 

[ShintaiDK]

Wow, a necro troll resurrect.

 

[NTMBK]

Has my posting history showed that I stalked him?? Nope. Perhaps you are stalking him,as his defender of sorts. Anyone,just to please you I will say I was wrong then?? OK?? Good. I don't want to annoy you in anyway or your friend. Mods please delete/edit my post as I was "obviously" wrong.

You're the one who trawled through the last 5 months and brought this post back solely to complain about Intel17, I just came in and replied to it. And this makes me the stalker?

 

[Alan G]

If you think this analyst is correct then it's a simple choice to go out and short Intel stock today and reap all the magical profits that will accumulate during the company's death spiral. I've been an Intel shareholder for a number of years and still see a considerable amount of value in the company. Discounted cash flow is strong and dividend yield is healthy and above average for companies this size. Sure it's no longer the pure growth play that it once was but it's still slightly undervalued in terms of usual metrics.

It might be useful for the naysayers to do their own analysis of the company's fundamentals and not rely on any one or two analysts. Of course you can always go out and short the stock as I already noted (look at how historical shortsellers of Intel have done before you venture there!).