Analyst predicts Samsung will quit phones by 2020

[poofyhairguy]

It's going to be like Samsung trying to innovate but 100X worse - at least with them you get some positive things like the Note series, S-pen, curved displays, using MST, etc. With Chinese brands leading the way you'll have things like Huawei's attempt at 3D touch - they threw in the hardware b/c they heard Apple was going to have it, but had absolutely no idea how to put it to use.

Three points on that:

1. Innovation in the smartphone sector is slowing down across the board. Even Apple's concepts of "innovation" are basically nuanced stuff like 3D touch that will be lost on the mass of iPhone users who flock to the platform for its lack of complexity. At this point the real innovation is happening in new form factors like wearables or VR.

2. The Chinese companies are innovating. Many of their models recently have included massive batteries, which is where I think all of Android needs to move to next. They are also innovating on price and SoC, the major OEMs we have seen in America like HTC or Samsung won't dare put an Intel or Mediatek chip in a phone. Some are even making their own SoCs. Their software is absolute crap, but if you combine their hardware with something like the Nexus program you end up with a 6P which is better than any Nexus LG, Samsung or HTC ever made.

3. Android doesn't really need innovation as much as it needs solid options. The iPhone can trudge forward because it solved battery life or the camera, but with Android phones you have to play nerd bingo with the features you want and pick from a bunch of not quite perfect options. If the Chinese can put it all together and crank out a solid phone (I think the 6P is almost there, if it only had wireless charging and OIS) then that is better for Android customers than some "innovation" like the Samsung Touchwiz gimmicks that are only tied to their phones and slows down the pace of updates.

 

[core2slow]

Three points on that:

1. Innovation in the smartphone sector is slowing down across the board. Even Apple's concepts of "innovation" are basically nuanced stuff like 3D touch that will be lost on the mass of iPhone users who flock to the platform for its lack of complexity. At this point the real innovation is happening in new form factors like wearables or VR.

2. The Chinese companies are innovating. Many of their models recently have included massive batteries, which is where I think all of Android needs to move to next. They are also innovating on price and SoC, the major OEMs we have seen in America like HTC or Samsung won't dare put an Intel or Mediatek chip in a phone. Some are even making their own SoCs. Their software is absolute crap, but if you combine their hardware with something like the Nexus program you end up with a 6P which is better than any Nexus LG, Samsung or HTC ever made.

3. Android doesn't really need innovation as much as it needs solid options. The iPhone can trudge forward because it solved battery life or the camera, but with Android phones you have to play nerd bingo with the features you want and pick from a bunch of not quite perfect options. If the Chinese can put it all together and crank out a solid phone (I think the 6P is almost there, if it only had wireless charging and OIS) then that is better for Android customers than some "innovation" like the Samsung Touchwiz gimmicks that are only tied to their phones and slows down the pace of updates.

+1.
Innovation for the sake of 1uping the competitors on stuff that 90% of the users aren't even going to notice/use is really what seperates apple from other android mfgrs. We've also reached the invisible wall of innovation where we can't continue to throw $#!t at the phone in hope that it'll sell to more customers. I think it's really important as users (especially Android) to urge OEMs to better integrate their innovations (or dont do it at all) and package a phone with all the necessary checkmarks. Can we live without curved displays and FHD resolution? Sure. What we can't live without is a phone lasting 4-5hr (at which you'll have to scramble to a nearby QC location) for a market that's now heavily dependent on media/entertainment use.

 

[Capt Caveman]

Umm Samsung Pay, Android Pay, and Apple Pay are identical you know, down to the exact services they use from the big credit card companies. There is 0 difference between them in security or user experience (mostly b/c they copied Apple). The only difference is Samsung Pay has MST.

Never even heard of Samsung Pay til reading this thread.

 

[Commodus]

You sound like you got some serious beef with Samsung as a brand...

I hope you realize you are exactly who you describe, for a different brand.

No. I may use an iPhone as a daily driver, but I don't need Apple to be the market leader to make me happy. I don't think the iPhone is the best at everything (Apple really needs to up the resolution on 4.7-inch iPhones next time around, for one), and I'm perfectly happy with someone choosing an Android phone if it's what floats their boat. Heck, I'd like to replace my Nexus 5 sidearm with a 6P if I could justify the cash.

I do have beef with Samsung, but mostly because of how it has acted in the past. Virtually every company talks up their products, as they should... but there's that, and then there's acting as if you have a manifest destiny to rule. Even Apple, for all its pomp and circumstance, doesn't do that. I also think some key elements of its strategy have been misguided: an insistence on a phone for every niche, a tendency to copy ideas wholesale, an eagerness to coast the very second it believes it has a safe lead (see: the lazy GS4 design).

In a sense, Samsung is getting much better now that it's on the decline and realizes that it isn't entitled to a market lead. It's willing to try things it hasn't done before, cut back on bloat (both in software and its phone range) and actually earn its keep. I just don't think it's necessarily making enough right decisions, or moving quickly enough... and it may well be facing unavoidable market pressures affecting all Android OEMs.

 

[theeedude]

I don't think they will be out of the smartphone business. They may get commoditized, and ASPs will get to commodity levels, but they do well in commodity television, appliance, memory, businesses. And as manufacturer of most of the components necessary to make a smartphone, they have a competitive advantage and synergies due to buying components from themselves. Yes, the days of Samsung phones selling for iPhone prices are coming to an end, but there is a long way from there to them exiting smartphone business entirely.

 

[zaza]

Good riddance to samsung and their overheating lagging buggy phones. Hope they lose a lot of money.

 

[KentState]

Good riddance to samsung and their overheating lagging buggy phones. Hope they lose a lot of money.

Now if only tragedy would hit Apple and sink them too right?

 

[jhansman]

Now if only tragedy would hit Apple and sink them too right?

The thirst for kool-aid is too great. Apple could make downright crappy phones and the sheeple would still lap them up. They won't, though, because their marketing people understand what makes Apple users tick. Samsung (and most other companies) lack this acumen.

As for Samsung, they just need to focus. If they are going to stay in the mobile market, then offer a couple phones that match the market leaders, drop the tablet line, and make your bones on TVs, SSDs, and appliances.

 

[Artdeco]

The thirst for kool-aid is too great. Apple could make downright crappy phones and the sheeple would still lap them up. They won't, though, because their marketing people understand what makes Apple users tick. Samsung (and most other companies) lack this acumen.

As for Samsung, they just need to focus. If they are going to stay in the mobile market, then offer a couple phones that match the market leaders, drop the tablet line, and make your bones on TVs, SSDs, and appliances.

You know, this kind of crap just gets old. Did you read ANY reviews of the 6s's?

Do you really think they could pull that off? They'd save billions in R&D, manufacturing if it were true.

30% of customers are coming from Android, heck, it seems to me there's a lot of crappy Android phones out there, and people just give up and buy Apple. If they were happy, why are they jumping OS's?

But yeah, the old meme of Apple can sell dogshlt to the faithful would work for about 1 generation of devices.

 

[poofyhairguy]

yeah, the old meme of Apple can sell dogshlt to the faithful would work for about 1 generation of devices.

yeah, the iPhone 6 gen.

 

[jhansman]

You know, this kind of crap just gets old. Did you read ANY reviews of the 6s's?

Most of 'em, in fact. No doubt, it's a grand device. iPhone buyers do not upgrade because they are getting superior technology (my S5 has the same res as the 6S, and more PPI, but hey, who's counting, right?); they upgrade because they would never think of using anything but an iPhone. Apple is now a fashion brand, high quality that is overpriced. Always has been, always will be.

 

[dawheat]

You know, this kind of crap just gets old. Did you read ANY reviews of the 6s's?

Do you really think they could pull that off? They'd save billions in R&D, manufacturing if it were true.

30% of customers are coming from Android, heck, it seems to me there's a lot of crappy Android phones out there, and people just give up and buy Apple. If they were happy, why are they jumping OS's?

But yeah, the old meme of Apple can sell dogshlt to the faithful would work for about 1 generation of devices.

Well Apple's global market share went from somewhere around low 12% in Q3 2014 to mid 13% in Q3 2015. Their market share is expected to reverse somewhat in Q4. So sure - a lot of their customers will switch from Android b/c still pretty much everyone still uses Android.

Samsung probably can make commodity phones work - even selling with razor thing margins means they're making money as a SOC, display, memory, storage, sensors, and other component supplier to themselves.

 

[StrangerGuy]

30% of customers are coming from Android, heck, it seems to me there's a lot of crappy Android phones out there, and people just give up and buy Apple. If they were happy, why are they jumping OS's?

Actually, more like the reverse is true. Android low end has never been better at price/performance for a while now yet Apple is selling even more iPhones in spite of it.

 

[zaza]

Now if only tragedy would hit Apple and sink them too right?

No because apple makes excellent phones with excellent performance.

 

[zaza]

Most of 'em, in fact. No doubt, it's a grand device. iPhone buyers do not upgrade because they are getting superior technology (my S5 has the same res as the 6S, and more PPI, but hey, who's counting, right?); they upgrade because they would never think of using anything but an iPhone. Apple is now a fashion brand, high quality that is overpriced. Always has been, always will be.

There's more to a phone than the size of the screen. Like maybe performance, thermal throttling, responsiveness, lagginess, dev support, all of which are 100 times superior on iphones than on androids.

 

[Dannar26]

Did you read ANY reviews of the 6s's?

I dunno, did any Apple customer?

Zingers aside...it's a great product, and well built for what people want. And after this year of Qualcomm fail chips, I'm envious of the A9. I also wish that Android wasn't trying to put 4k resolution in a 5 inch device. Kudos to Apple for avoiding that insanity. I would take stellar performance and frame rates on a 720p vs lag at 1440 any day for a device this small.

I'm on Android because it's more fun experiment with. I'm going to have a ruggedized device with 264 GBs of games, movies, and music. If you're frequently going off into the woods with no signal, you too would seek to get this type of device. It's about usage case.

The iPhone is a good piece of tech. It's just that the tech illeterate masses think it's the prettiest hand bag on the market.

Good riddance to samsung and their overheating lagging buggy phones. Hope they lose a lot of money.

Dang guy! Did Samsung piss in your wheaties?

Competition is great my friend. No doubt your beloved iPhone has had many positive changes to keep up with/respond to the galaxy series.

 

[Commodus]

Most of 'em, in fact. No doubt, it's a grand device. iPhone buyers do not upgrade because they are getting superior technology (my S5 has the same res as the 6S, and more PPI, but hey, who's counting, right?); they upgrade because they would never think of using anything but an iPhone. Apple is now a fashion brand, high quality that is overpriced. Always has been, always will be.

You're generally right, although I'm not sure I'd use the "overpriced" label. If it's high-quality and tons of people are willing to buy it, doesn't that mean the pricing is about right? I'm not saying that you can't get better value on the Android side (the Nexus line, Moto X Pure and the like), but I'm pretty sure that Apple has little incentive to cut prices.