Analysis of Paul Ryans 'Roadmap for America' (Republican budget proposal)

[ElFenix]

I wonder if it could be legitimately argued whether Paul Ryan's plan genuinely represents a possible Republican "ideal" end game of completely destroying the middle class and concentrating the vast majority of the wealth of the entire country in the hands of both corporations and in very rich individuals, followed by a no-longer-so-gradual erosion of the Constitution?

i doubt that the rank and file of the republican party really wants that, no more than the rank and file of the democratic party wants all of dennis kucinich's wet dreams.

 

[theeedude]

Republicans defaulted on contract with America, now they want to sell us a roadmap? I would say we best be careful not to end up in a ditch

 

[werepossum]

Republicans defaulted on contract with America, now they want to sell us a roadmap? I would say we best be careful not to end up in a ditch

Utterly untrue. The Contract With America was a pledge signed by every Republican candidate for the House except two; it was not a document connected with Senate Republicans, who were more big government friendly. The entire document is quoted below, after my comments. The quote is from the official (and presumably non-partisan) House web site http://www.house.gov/house/Contract/CONTRACT.html.

As you can see below, the Contract With America had two parts. The first, eight procedural items, were promised to be implemented immediately if the Republicans took the House. They did, and they were, to the extent possible without legislation. The second included ten items for which the Republican House candidates promised to allow full debate and an up or down vote on the floor, regardless of whether or not they personally supported the ideas. These ten items ended up as thirty-two bills, of which thirty-one passed the House. Moderate Senate Republicans worked with Democrats to water down or block most of it - not being a party to the Contract, Senate Republicans or Democrats felt no need to allow these things to come to an embarrassing and politically damaging floor vote - but three of these House bills eventually did became law. The Congressional Accountability Act of 1995 required Congress to be subject to the laws it passed, but from which it routinely exempted itself. The Unfunded Mandate Reform Act of 1995 prevented Congress from passing unfunded mandates to the states. And the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 contained many individual items making government live within the same rules as, and reducing its demands on, ordinary people and companies.

Notice the part about the balanced budget amendment. How much better off would our country be had we passed that and gone into this recession with little or no debt? This goes to show that passing significant reform legislation is difficult at best, but the House Republicans fulfilled every promise which is bizarrely responsible among politicians and passed at least some of the items even under a Democrat President. Compare that with Clinton's first year where Health Care Reform and his "stimulus" plan failed to pass even with majorities in House and Senate, or of Obama whose Stimulus Rex passed but whose health care reform failed to pass within his first year despite having even bigger majorities in the Hosue and the all-important supermajority in the Senate.

REPUBLICAN CONTRACT WITH AMERICA
As Republican Members of the House of Representatives and as citizens seeking to join that body we propose not just to change its policies, but even more important, to restore the bonds of trust between the people and their elected representatives.

That is why, in this era of official evasion and posturing, we offer instead a detailed agenda for national renewal, a written commitment with no fine print.

This year's election offers the chance, after four decades of one-party control, to bring to the House a new majority that will transform the way Congress works. That historic change would be the end of government that is too big, too intrusive, and too easy with the public's money. It can be the beginning of a Congress that respects the values and shares the faith of the American family.

Like Lincoln, our first Republican president, we intend to act "with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right." To restore accountability to Congress. To end its cycle of scandal and disgrace. To make us all proud again of the way free people govern themselves.

On the first day of the 104th Congress, the new Republican majority will immediately pass the following major reforms, aimed at restoring the faith and trust of the American people in their government:

* FIRST, require all laws that apply to the rest of the country also apply equally to the Congress;
* SECOND, select a major, independent auditing firm to conduct a comprehensive audit of Congress for waste, fraud or abuse;
* THIRD, cut the number of House committees, and cut committee staff by one-third;
* FOURTH, limit the terms of all committee chairs;
* FIFTH, ban the casting of proxy votes in committee;
* SIXTH, require committee meetings to be open to the public;
* SEVENTH, require a three-fifths majority vote to pass a tax increase;
* EIGHTH, guarantee an honest accounting of our Federal Budget by implementing zero base-line budgeting.

Thereafter, within the first 100 days of the 104th Congress, we shall bring to the House Floor the following bills, each to be given full and open debate, each to be given a clear and fair vote and each to be immediately available this day for public inspection and scrutiny.

1. THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY ACT: A balanced budget/tax limitation amendment and a legislative line-item veto to restore fiscal responsibility to an out- of-control Congress, requiring them to live under the same budget constraints as families and businesses. (Bill Text) (Description)

2. THE TAKING BACK OUR STREETS ACT: An anti-crime package including stronger truth-in- sentencing, "good faith" exclusionary rule exemptions, effective death penalty provisions, and cuts in social spending from this summer's "crime" bill to fund prison construction and additional law enforcement to keep people secure in their neighborhoods and kids safe in their schools. (Bill Text) (Description)

3. THE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY ACT: Discourage illegitimacy and teen pregnancy by prohibiting welfare to minor mothers and denying increased AFDC for additional children while on welfare, cut spending for welfare programs, and enact a tough two-years-and-out provision with work requirements to promote individual responsibility. (Bill Text) (Description)

4. THE FAMILY REINFORCEMENT ACT: Child support enforcement, tax incentives for adoption, strengthening rights of parents in their children's education, stronger child pornography laws, and an elderly dependent care tax credit to reinforce the central role of families in American society. (Bill Text) (Description)

5. THE AMERICAN DREAM RESTORATION ACT: A S500 per child tax credit, begin repeal of the marriage tax penalty, and creation of American Dream Savings Accounts to provide middle class tax relief. (Bill Text) (Description)

6. THE NATIONAL SECURITY RESTORATION ACT: No U.S. troops under U.N. command and restoration of the essential parts of our national security funding to strengthen our national defense and maintain our credibility around the world. (Bill Text) (Description)

7. THE SENIOR CITIZENS FAIRNESS ACT: Raise the Social Security earnings limit which currently forces seniors out of the work force, repeal the 1993 tax hikes on Social Security benefits and provide tax incentives for private long-term care insurance to let Older Americans keep more of what they have earned over the years. (Bill Text) (Description)

8. THE JOB CREATION AND WAGE ENHANCEMENT ACT: Small business incentives, capital gains cut and indexation, neutral cost recovery, risk assessment/cost-benefit analysis, strengthening the Regulatory Flexibility Act and unfunded mandate reform to create jobs and raise worker wages. (Bill Text) (Description)

9. THE COMMON SENSE LEGAL REFORM ACT: "Loser pays" laws, reasonable limits on punitive damages and reform of product liability laws to stem the endless tide of litigation. (Bill Text) (Description)

10. THE CITIZEN LEGISLATURE ACT: A first-ever vote on term limits to replace career politicians with citizen legislators. (Description)

Further, we will instruct the House Budget Committee to report to the floor and we will work to enact additional budget savings, beyond the budget cuts specifically included in the legislation described above, to ensure that the Federal budget deficit will be less than it would have been without the enactment of these bills.

Respecting the judgment of our fellow citizens as we seek their mandate for reform, we hereby pledge our names to this Contract with America.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Deficit Reduction: 2010 to 2020

-$1 trillion: Reduce troop strength in Iraq and Afghanistan to 30k by 2011

-$50 billion: There is an additional $93 billion over the next 10 years in "international emergency funding". Slash it.

-$1.7 trillion: Repeal 2/3s of the Bush Tax Cuts over the next 3 years --- Set "Estate Tax" above $3.5 million threshold effective 2010.

-$1.5 trillion: Stop raiding Social Security. The 'lock-boxed' funds should be loaned to state and local gov'ts for significant infrastructure improvements --- not operating costs. Interest on the loans fixed at 10-yr bond rate. Principle and interest payments generate future cash flow for the trust funds --- major infrastructure projects pump up tax receipts.

The actual savings would be greater than listed because we will not be paying interest to ourselves for the IOUs. (Net interest over the next 10 years is around $5 trillion so I'll go with a conservative 5% or -$250 billion.)

-$750 billion: Reduce DoD Outlays 10%

-$300 billion: Reduce Non-defense Discretionary spending 5%

-$500 billion: Big Bank/Wall Street Surcharge for TARP

-$1.2 trillion: Cut 'Mandatory' programs/outlays 5%

-$31 billion: 15% reduction in cost of "statistical probability of a major disaster requiring federal assistance for relief and reconstruction."


That's a reduction of around $6.5 trillion. So ...

Raise the retirement age.
Index outlays from the trust funds.
Raise the cap.
Re-negotiate Part D.

The 'fix' beyond that to cover our unfunded liabilities over the next 75 years should be around 2% of GDP.

I'll let yall argue about that ---

...

Notice the part about the balanced budget amendment. How much better off would our country be had we passed that and gone into this recession with little or no debt? ....

You are such a tool. The Unified Budget was in surplus for 3 years until Bush and the GOP trashed PayGo in the Spring of 2001.

Try Google instead of partisan hackery next time.



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[Fern]

Wait, did the Tax Policy Institute analysis state that sole proprietors would reclassify income, and claim less as salary and more as profit to avoid taxes? I admit that my knowledge of tax law is not huge, but I could have sworn that a business structered as a sole proprietorship has no division between business income and owner income. In other words, there is no way for a sole proprietor to do what they claim he would do. (to my knowledge)

So, if they are wrong about sole proprietors and income/profit taxes, why should I believe the rest of their analysis?

Re: Bolded part - you are correct.

Fern

 

[werepossum]

SNIP

You are such a tool. The Unified Budget was in surplus for 3 years until Bush and the GOP trashed PayGo in the Spring of 2001.

Try Google instead of partisan hackery next time.



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Google beats the actual government record? Hah, you lose your liberal tin foil beanie hat and take 2d20 reality points of damage! On the plus side you are now nominated for a Nobel in dumbassery.

Remember who ran Congress (that body of government that makes laws and budgets) from '95 - 2000? The same GOP you so hate, that's who, and Clinton only vetoed to force them to spend more. PayGo was and is a joke, as witnessed by the Dems re-establishing it with great fanfare and them immediately ignoring it. Only the Republicans have shown any fiscal restraint in my lifetime, and even they only when they had a Democrat president. Only a Constitutional Amendment mandating a balanced budget could have any real affect.

 

[bfdd]

Wait, did the Tax Policy Institute analysis state that sole proprietors would reclassify income, and claim less as salary and more as profit to avoid taxes? I admit that my knowledge of tax law is not huge, but I could have sworn that a business structered as a sole proprietorship has no division between business income and owner income. In other words, there is no way for a sole proprietor to do what they claim he would do. (to my knowledge)

So, if they are wrong about sole proprietors and income/profit taxes, why should I believe the rest of their analysis?

Well if that's true and it looks like Fern on the next page said it is, then they're full of shit and need to be called on it.

 

[sandorski]

lol, ya, that'll win Votes. I don't think Republicans are this stupid, but I could be wrong.

 

[zsdersw]

Cutting capital gains is a proven method to spur private investment.

Not really, but it's more accurate than the proclamation that the economy would "skyrocket overnight".

 

[Zebo]

The devil is strong in this one. Good luck w/ that.

 

[GroundedSailor]

lol, ya, that'll win Votes. I don't think Republicans are this stupid, but I could be wrong.

Which is what it died a quick death in the R talk circuit.

 

[Moonbeam]

It's time for the Democrats to withdraw into rooms that in bygone days would have been filled with smoke and make some deals and ram health care up America's ass. Within no time at all the people will be so glad of the benefits they won't care how it was done.

We should never forget that Republicans are assholes who are corporate or have mentally been propagandized by corporations.

 

[daishi5]

Well if that's true and it looks like Fern on the next page said it is, then they're full of shit and need to be called on it.

There are two analysis here, the CBPP, and the Tax Policy Institute. The CBPP does not give any real indication how they arrived at their numbers, but the Tax policy institute is either lying or they know even less about business taxes than I do, which puts them very far down on the scale. So, there are two analysis with the same conclusion, and the one that discusses their method is garbage. The tax policy institute one should be ignored, and the CBPP one states that his plan would reduce tax income to 16% of GDP. If you look at the actual numbers in regards to tax receipts as a % of GDP, they have never strayed away from 19% of GDP through all of the tax changes since 1950 (one exception the recent crash, but even that effect was for 1 or 2 years and has disappeared), so I am inclined to believe Ryan's claim over theirs.

I still don't like Ryan's plan, removing the capital gains tax is something I can't support. We should tax all income, not just income from labor