Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

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Ottonomous

Senior member
May 15, 2014
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How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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ALU to ALU is only a small part of the story. You always forget to mention that Turing is miles ahead of RDNA in terms of uarch. Turing is DX12 Ultimate generation with mesh shaders, VRS, sampler feedback, Ray Tracing and so on. Still, RDNA 7nm barely keeps up with 16nm Turing in power efficiency. RDNA2 will only catch up with Turing uarch, while Ampere will be on another level again, crushing RDNA2 in the important high-end features like Ray Tracing. And I don't even talk about DLSS 3, the elephant in the room...
All this talk about rasterization performance is to hide how far away AMD is in features. Hopefully, in few weeks, all be clear and AMD brigade will move goalpost and start to hype how RDNA3 MCM will be so much better :tearsofjoy:
Moving the goalposts, eh?

I love how you at the end talked about AMD brigade moving the goalpost, while in whole your post you moved the goalpost...
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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Are you honestly expecting Big Navi to have ~225% the performance of a 5700XT (which would be required for a clear win, if Nvidia can pull off a super dissapointing 40% uplift) ... and at @275W ?

From the latest Techpowerup review, the RTX2080ti is 40%-50% faster vs the RX5700XT at 1440p and 4K.
If RTX3090 is 50% faster vs RTX2080Ti then AMD needs to have a 125% faster card vs the RX5700XT to get even, not 225%
 
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Krteq

Senior member
May 22, 2015
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I need, I need. TW? Taiwan? Not Samsung?
GP107 also manufactured at Samsung (14nm)
MSI-GTX-1050-Ti-GAMING-X-4G-GP107-400-GPU.jpg
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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Also, why do people expect Ampere to have 60% more performance than RTX 2080 Ti, in pure rasterization?

82 SMs is 20% more than RTX 2080 Ti had. Then you get higher memory bandwidth. And, at best 10% higher clock speeds(RTX 2080 Ti was able to clock to 1.95 Ghz).

Total performance of RTX 3090 should be around 40-50% higher than RTX 2080 Ti.

Where do people get that another 20-10% more? There is not that much that Nvidia can eek out from current GPU designs, WITHOUT vast redesign of the architecture. And that only will come with Chiplet based GPUs.

I can believe in that screen that was on previous pages only if it was With DLSS. But not pure Horsepower of the ALUs.
 

kurosaki

Senior member
Feb 7, 2019
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From the latest Techpowerup review, the RTX2080ti is 40%-50% faster vs the RX5700XT at 1440p and 4K.
If RTX3090 is 50% faster vs RTX2080Ti then AMD needs to have a 100% faster card vs the RX5700XT to get even, not 225%

This. The AMD 6xxx-series is going to be good enough for most people if priced right. Just look at Valves yearly Steam-graphs. There are very few high end cards on those lists and are completely dominated by the best bang for the buck mid tiers. If AMD isn't going all Nvidia on the pricing this year, we have exciting times ahead. Nvidia is bound to try to compete in pricing and hopefully we will finally get cards that can run 1440p with RT and with high enough fps at the same time. For less than the cost of a used car, or a small internal organ.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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This. The AMD 6xxx-series is going to be good enough for most people if priced right. Just look at Valves yearly Steam-graphs. There are vere few high end cards on those lists and are completely dominated by the best bang for the buck mid tiers. If AMD isn't going all Nvidia on the pricing this year, we have exciting times ahead. Nvidia is bound to try to compete in pricing and hopefully we will finally get cards that can run 1440p with RT and with high enough fps at the same time. For less than the cost of a used car, or a small internal organ.
It depends on Nvidia pricing. Don't expect that big Navi if competitive to be priced Below 1000$. Don't expect that Small Navi, Navi 23 to be priced below RTX 3070, if it is competitive with it.

Hasn't this generation taught us nothing? AMD won't play the value brand anymore if they have premium products. So our only hope for lower prices is actually - Nvidia.
 

kurosaki

Senior member
Feb 7, 2019
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It depends on Nvidia pricing. Don't expect that big Navi if competitive to be priced Below 1000$. Don't expect that Small Navi, Navi 23 to be priced below RTX 3070, if it is competitive with it.

Hasn't this generation taught us nothing? AMD won't play the value brand anymore if they have premium products. So our only hope for lower prices is actually - Nvidia.

Well, that's how you win over customers, if you have card to sell that is. I'm afraid that TW and Samsung will have problems keeping volumes up.
 

Glo.

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Apr 25, 2015
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Guys, seriously, the more I think about it, the more I am baffled, how come people have expectations about Ampere performing vastly more powerful than Turing in games?

107 die - 24 SM's, 106 die, 36 SM's, 104 die - 48 SM's.

107 die - 128 bit bus, 106 die 192 bit bus, 104 die - 256 bit bus.

Clock targets - up to, what, 2.1-2.15 Ghz?

Where do people get the idea that 48 SM/3072 ALU GPU, with only 10% higher clock speed than RTX 2080 Super, with at best 20% more memory bandwdith, will be faster(!) than RTX 2080 Ti?
3060? Your aim is to low! 3070s for 300usd, 3080(+) can go for another 150. Hold up the buying until the sales are raining in! ;)
Nah, man. It won't happen.
 

kurosaki

Senior member
Feb 7, 2019
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Guys, seriously, the more I think about it, the more I am baffled, how come people have expectations about Ampere performing vastly more powerful than Turing in games?

107 die - 24 SM's, 106 die, 36 SM's, 104 die - 48 SM's.

107 die - 128 bit bus, 106 die 192 bit bus, 104 die - 256 bit bus.

Clock targets - up to, what, 2.1-2.15 Ghz?

Where do people get the idea that 48 SM/3072 ALU GPU, with only 10% higher clock speed than RTX 2080 Super, with at best 20% more memory bandwdith, will be faster(!) than RTX 2080 Ti?

Nah, man. It won't happen.
Just like the good old days, performance per dollar doubling every year...
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Guys, seriously, the more I think about it, the more I am baffled, how come people have expectations about Ampere performing vastly more powerful than Turing in games?

107 die - 24 SM's, 106 die, 36 SM's, 104 die - 48 SM's.

107 die - 128 bit bus, 106 die 192 bit bus, 104 die - 256 bit bus.

Clock targets - up to, what, 2.1-2.15 Ghz?

Where do people get the idea that 48 SM/3072 ALU GPU, with only 10% higher clock speed than RTX 2080 Super, with at best 20% more memory bandwdith, will be faster(!) than RTX 2080 Ti?

IPC gains of course. Difference between 2080S and 2080 Ti FE is about 20%.
 

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
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Guys, seriously, the more I think about it, the more I am baffled, how come people have expectations about Ampere performing vastly more powerful than Turing in games?

Because they've, one way or another, basically delivered the same levels of annual performance increases for a decade or so? Its like clockwork.

No real reason to think its suddenly entirely snarled up with a decent die shrink to work with, and a good while to do the new architecture.

Honestly, it makes all this chasing after rumoured specifications a bit futile. We more or less know what we're getting in advance :)
(How they manage it each time is a bit different.).
 
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Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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IPC gains of course. Difference between 2080S and 2080 Ti FE is about 20%.
Because they've, one way or another, basically delivered the same levels of annual performance increases for a decade or so? Its like clockwork.

No real reason to think its suddenly entirely snarled up with a decent die shrink to work with, and a good while to do the new architecture.

Honestly, it makes all this chasing after rumoured specifications a bit futile. We more or less know what we're getting in advance :)
(How they manage it each time is a bit different.).

You do realize that with Turing ALL of IPC gains came from... Increased memory bandwdith?

Compare GTX 1650 with GTX 1050 Ti. All of performance in GTX 1650 came from increased ALU count, and higher clock speeds, sustained.

So let me ask you this. Out of what Nvidia is able to squeeze more IPC gains, without vast redesign of their architecture?

Magic? Kryptonite? Adamantium?

Secondly. What has past to do with the future. Intel has been on a good proces execution for past 20 years so its impossible for them to NOT deliver next node, eh? AMD failed to execute on CPU side for past 10 years so they will never come back, eh?

"Look where the puck is going, not where it has been."
 

maddie

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Jul 18, 2010
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That link allowed me to see the admittedly leaked, 3080 & 3090 card sizes. IF the 3080 is only a cut down 102 die (68 SM) and the 3090 (82 SM) is the full one, then why in the world would you need around a 100% increase in cooler volume?

3090 cooler = 125-140% greater area and 3 slots versus 2 slots. This further shows me, though I realize I'm swimming against the tide here, that I really see a dual GPU card here.
 

Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
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From the latest Techpowerup review, the RTX2080ti is 40%-50% faster vs the RX5700XT at 1440p and 4K.
If RTX3090 is 50% faster vs RTX2080Ti then AMD needs to have a 100% faster card vs the RX5700XT to get even, not 225%

Sorry for being unclear. I meant 225% of the absolute perfomance of RX 5700XT not 225% faster. That would be 125% faster.

But Basic 6th-grade math?

If RX 5700XT gets 1000 points in an imaginary benchmark. RTX 2080 Ti gets 1500 points. Now if RTX 3090 is 50% faster than RTX 2080 Ti what will it's score be? (hint: it's not 2000 :p)
 

tviceman

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Mar 25, 2008
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That link allowed me to see the admittedly leaked, 3080 & 3090 card sizes. IF the 3080 is only a cut down 102 die (68 SM) and the 3090 (82 SM) is the full one, then why in the world would you need around a 100% increase in cooler volume?

3090 cooler = 125-140% greater area and 3 slots versus 2 slots. This further shows me, though I realize I'm swimming against the tide here, that I really see a dual GPU card here.

I imagine it's because the memory voltage @ 2.1 ghz and the clock speeds being pushed hard on the fully unlocked chip. Look at the notebook versions of Turing - they are able to get 90% of the performance of their desktop equivalents with a 33% drop in TDP. That is what the 3080 will do to get it's TDP to sane (yet still high) levels.
 

tviceman

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Sorry for being unclear. I meant 225% of the absolute perfomance of RX 5700XT not 225% faster. That would be 125% faster.

But Basic 6th-grade math?

If RX 5700XT gets 1000 points in an imaginary benchmark. RTX 2080 Ti gets 1500 points. Now if RTX 3090 is 50% faster than RTX 2080 Ti what will it's score be? (hint: it's not 2000 :p)

Haha I beat you to it a few posts above.
 
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maddie

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Jul 18, 2010
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I imagine it's because the memory voltage @ 2.1 ghz and the clock speeds being pushed hard on the fully unlocked chip. Look at the notebook versions of Turing - they are able to get 90% of the performance with a 33% drop in TDP. That is what the 3080 will do to get it's TDP to sane (yet still high) levels.
Twice the power dissipation capacity available? Don't see it as due to memory and OC.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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Sorry for being unclear. I meant 225% of the absolute perfomance of RX 5700XT not 225% faster. That would be 125% faster.

But Basic 6th-grade math?

If RX 5700XT gets 1000 points in an imaginary benchmark. RTX 2080 Ti gets 1500 points. Now if RTX 3090 is 50% faster than RTX 2080 Ti what will it's score be? (hint: it's not 2000 :p)

yes my bad, i fixed to 125%
 
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xpea

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Feb 14, 2014
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You do realize that with Turing ALL of IPC gains came from... Increased memory bandwdith?

So let me ask you this. Out of what Nvidia is able to squeeze more IPC gains, without vast redesign of their architecture?

Magic? Kryptonite? Adamantium?

Secondly. What has past to do with the future. Intel has been on a good proces execution for past 20 years so its impossible for them to NOT deliver next node, eh? AMD failed to execute on CPU side for past 10 years so they will never come back, eh?

"Look where the puck is going, not where it has been."

You do realize that with RDNA2 ALL of IPC gains came from... Increased memory bandwdith?

So let me ask you this. Out of what RDNA2 is able to squeeze more IPC gains, without vast redesign of their architecture?

Magic? Kryptonite? Adamantium?

:p:p:p
 
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Glo.

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Apr 25, 2015
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You do realize that with RDNA2 ALL of IPC gains came from... Increased memory bandwdith?

So let me ask you this. Out of what RDNA2 is able to squeeze more IPC gains, without vast redesign of their architecture?

Magic? Kryptonite? Adamantium?

:p:p:p
Caches redesigned, redesigned scheduling, More instructions executed, per clock, higher memory bandwidth, higher cache bandwidth. Is it enough?

We know what Ampere is and apart from GEMM stuff, its the same Turing architecture, on this very front.

So let me ask again. Where do all of those IPC improvements are going to come from?