Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

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Ottonomous

Senior member
May 15, 2014
559
292
136
How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.
 

ozzy702

Golden Member
Nov 1, 2011
1,151
530
136
Second time you have posted this in this very thread. But I have not seen any threaded started to work out whatever issue you are seeing. Polaris cards are in no way known for black screen issues. Which means it could be a driver corruption, or a hardware issue. As for the 5700, plenty of driver issues early on, but those have all been fixed. Its not very often that a GPU company moves to an entirely new ISA. Prior to Navi, AMD has not done it since the 7000 series. nVidia has not done it since Kepler. Driver growing pains are to be expected, if not exactly wanted.

This is a big thread derail, I guess I can't mention AMD in anything but a positive light despite the fact that I've used AMD GPUs in more systems than I can count... I'll make sure to only talk about NVIDIA from here on out. ;)

I ran DDU and a clean install of drivers... twice, neither solved the problem. I'd come back to my computer and it would be on but screens not receiving any input and no ability to remote into it. The only temp fix that has worked is using a custom fan profile via afterburner that keeps the fans from spinning all the way down, which was a recommendation I found online. Could be hardware related for sure, although it's 100% stable when in use.

Suffice it to say I've also had increased issues with games crashing (especially older games) on not just my 580 but the 480 and 570 in my kid's boxes. My experience is obviously anecdotal and I don't think it's annoying enough to pay significantly more for NVIDIA, but if performance is in the same ballpark at a given price, NVIDIA is going to get my money for my personal box.
 

Konan

Senior member
Jul 28, 2017
360
291
106
So what are your guys feelings with paper launch with GDDR6X then?

When the GTX 1080 came out Nvidia used the brand new GDDR5X, however, they then decided to use just GDDR5 for the GTX 1070. Are we going to see a repeat?
Is GDDR6X just sampling so supply is short?

Micron’s roadmap also highlights the potential for a 16Gb GDDR6X in 2021 with the ability to reach up to 24Gb/s.
I read this and think if there are any 16GB cards then come later on in the new calendar year.
 

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
So what are your guys feelings with paper launch with GDDR6X then?

When the GTX 1080 came out Nvidia used the brand new GDDR5X, however, they then decided to use just GDDR5 for the GTX 1070. Are we going to see a repeat?
Is GDDR6X just sampling so supply is short?


I read this and think if there are any 16GB cards then come later on in the new calendar year.

I am willing to bet it wont be 6X across the board. Lower end cards just don't need it, so why put more expensive memory on them? It is really strange that GDDR6X never actually had a launch. Maybe its because computex didn't happen. But a press release would have sufficed.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,233
1,610
136
I can't imagine them leaving so many people with a 1080Ti without a viable upgrade path yet again. Does it make sense for them to do that? I honestly don't know.

I agree. With the insane pricing sales will simply go down overall. People will have to choose slower models which simply means it takes longer for an upgrade to be worth it. At this point I wonder if they even made any money from the TU102 die? Yes Quadros sell at much higher prices but then that market is a lot smaller than the gaming market.

The high-end is all about mindshare and Nvidia has that in spades. The low to mid-end is where money is made.

The only thing that makes sense for the insane pricing is that people are willing to pay $300-$400 for tiny entry-level dies (cards). Looking at you, Navi10. So the 102 die is mostly there to inflate all the other prices. If your top card is $1200, the next once can't just be $500, it must be $800 at least. And so forth. So all levels get inflated prices. So the 102 die doesn't even need to be profitable in itself because it fuels the profits made of overpriced tiny 250nm dies. if every die in the massmarket sells for $50-$100 more, that's a huge win.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
4,351
3,158
136
I got real lucky with a misprinted price sticker on a 8800GTX back when they'd just come out. I remember the store manager wasn't really happy with the stock guys who'd messed up. I didn't think GPUs would get much more expensive than the then MSRP of the 8800GTX. 2070 launched at that same price, but the Super came in a hundred bucks cheaper. The GPU landscape needs some serious reshuffling and get prices down again. It's a buyer's market, but some much needed sanity is in order.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,803
4,777
136
84 SM Ampere GPU - 40% Rasterization perf. improvement, over RTX 2080 Ti, 375W TGP - RTX 3090.
68 SM GPU - 10-15% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Ti, 320W TGP - RTX 3080.
48 SM GPU - 10% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Super - RTX 3070 Ti.
40 SM GPU - RTX 2080 performance - RTX 3070.
36 SM GPU - RTX 2070 Super performance - RTX 3060 Ti
30 SM GPU - RTX 2070 performance - RTX 3060
24 SM GPU - RTX 2060 performance - RTX 3050 Ti.
20 SM GPU - GTX 1660 Ti performance - RTX 3050.

RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,223
5,768
136
84 SM Ampere GPU - 40% Rasterization perf. improvement, over RTX 2080 Ti, 375W TGP - RTX 3090.
68 SM GPU - 10-15% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Ti, 320W TGP - RTX 3080.
48 SM GPU - 10% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Super - RTX 3070 Ti.
40 SM GPU - RTX 2080 performance - RTX 3070.
36 SM GPU - RTX 2070 Super performance - RTX 3060 Ti
30 SM GPU - RTX 2070 performance - RTX 3060
24 SM GPU - RTX 2060 performance - RTX 3050 Ti.
20 SM GPU - GTX 1660 Ti performance - RTX 3050.

RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.

Prices and performance are too low.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,614
1,816
136
84 SM Ampere GPU - 40% Rasterization perf. improvement, over RTX 2080 Ti, 375W TGP - RTX 3090.
68 SM GPU - 10-15% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Ti, 320W TGP - RTX 3080.
48 SM GPU - 10% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Super - RTX 3070 Ti.
40 SM GPU - RTX 2080 performance - RTX 3070.
36 SM GPU - RTX 2070 Super performance - RTX 3060 Ti
30 SM GPU - RTX 2070 performance - RTX 3060
24 SM GPU - RTX 2060 performance - RTX 3050 Ti.
20 SM GPU - GTX 1660 Ti performance - RTX 3050.

RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.
+40% at 375W and +15% at 320w vs the 2080 Ti would mean basically no improvement in performance per watt between Turing and Ampere. That seems incredibly unlikely.
 

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,409
979
136
84 SM Ampere GPU - 40% Rasterization perf. improvement, over RTX 2080 Ti, 375W TGP - RTX 3090.
68 SM GPU - 10-15% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Ti, 320W TGP - RTX 3080.
48 SM GPU - 10% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Super - RTX 3070 Ti.
40 SM GPU - RTX 2080 performance - RTX 3070.
36 SM GPU - RTX 2070 Super performance - RTX 3060 Ti
30 SM GPU - RTX 2070 performance - RTX 3060
24 SM GPU - RTX 2060 performance - RTX 3050 Ti.
20 SM GPU - GTX 1660 Ti performance - RTX 3050.

RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.
Prices are too low, and performance is too low as well. The 3090 should be at least 60% faster than 2080ti. For reference the FE 1080ti was 85% faster than the stock 980ti (although aftermarket 980ti were sometimes 30%+ faster than the stock 980ti).
 

TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
2,523
3,037
136
Prices are too low, and performance is too low as well. The 3090 should be at least 60% faster than 2080ti. For reference the FE 1080ti was 85% faster than the stock 980ti (although aftermarket 980ti were sometimes 30%+ faster than the stock 980ti).
It's not given that RTX 3090 has to be at least 60% faster than RTX 2080 Ti.
For reference:
FE GTX 980 Ti (Cuda: 2816; TMU: 176; ROPs: 96 ) -> 1128Mhz (100%)
FE GTX 1080 Ti (Cuda: 3584; TMU: 224; ROPs: 88 ) -> 1777Mhz (158%)
FE RTX 2080 Ti (Cuda: 4352; TMU: 272; ROPs: 88 ) -> 1824Mhz (162%)
These values are the average clockspeed from techpowerup reviews. As you can see 1080 Ti had 58% higher clockspeed on average than 980 Ti, so It's not surprising It was so much faster. On the other hand 2080Ti had only 47Mhz higher clockspeed than 1080 Ti and was "only" 39% faster.
 
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TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
2,523
3,037
136
84 SM Ampere GPU - 40% Rasterization perf. improvement, over RTX 2080 Ti, 375W TGP - RTX 3090.
68 SM GPU - 10-15% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Ti, 320W TGP - RTX 3080.
48 SM GPU - 10% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Super - RTX 3070 Ti.
40 SM GPU - RTX 2080 performance - RTX 3070.
36 SM GPU - RTX 2070 Super performance - RTX 3060 Ti
30 SM GPU - RTX 2070 performance - RTX 3060
24 SM GPU - RTX 2060 performance - RTX 3050 Ti.
20 SM GPU - GTX 1660 Ti performance - RTX 3050.

RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.
I won't comment the performance, although I highly doubt that RTX 3070 will be closer to RTX 3060 than to RTX 3070 Ti model. In my opinion If 3070 Ti and 3060 Ti have 48 and 36SM respectively then 3070 and 3060 will have 44 and 32SM.
The prices are very low for Nvidia, but I certainly wouldn't mind such prices.
 

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
+40% at 375W and +15% at 320w vs the 2080 Ti would mean basically no improvement in performance per watt between Turing and Ampere. That seems incredibly unlikely.

If nVidia was on TSMC for Ampere, I would agree. But they aren't. They are on an unproven Samsung process which historically has been worse than TSMC.
 

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.

I still think we won't see any Ti's at launch. They will ultimately becomes Super versions next year. Or at a minimum, until after AMD launches.
 
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MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,614
1,816
136
If nVidia was on TSMC for Ampere, I would agree. But they aren't. They are on an unproven Samsung process which historically has been worse than TSMC.
While I won't argue the SS8 is equal or better than TMSC7, they're moving from a tweaked version of TMSC's 16nm process. Even outside of that, the 2080 Ti managed a 17% uplift over the 1080 Ti in PPW @ 4k on a similar process (TPU numbers). New node, new arch and flat PPW? I can't see it.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
84 SM Ampere GPU - 40% Rasterization perf. improvement, over RTX 2080 Ti, 375W TGP - RTX 3090.
68 SM GPU - 10-15% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Ti, 320W TGP - RTX 3080.
48 SM GPU - 10% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Super - RTX 3070 Ti.
40 SM GPU - RTX 2080 performance - RTX 3070.
36 SM GPU - RTX 2070 Super performance - RTX 3060 Ti
30 SM GPU - RTX 2070 performance - RTX 3060
24 SM GPU - RTX 2060 performance - RTX 3050 Ti.
20 SM GPU - GTX 1660 Ti performance - RTX 3050.

RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.

RTX 3080 being only 10-15% faster than 2080Ti would be a titanic fail. They might as well just lower the price of the 2080Ti and be done with it. I wouldn't move from a 1080Ti to the RTX 3080 if that's all it brought to the table, even at $600. Useless upgrade. 3090 would be good performance-wise but they wouldn't get many people to ditch their 1080Ti for a $1000 card. They'd piss off a lot of people though.
 
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Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,803
4,777
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I would like to know guys your explenation for "too low performance"?

Do you even realize how big IPC jump Nvidia would have to get, purely from ALU counts perspective, to get more performance out of their designs?

Have you guys taken into account the ALU count jump?

RTX 3080 has 68 SM's. The same amount as RTX 2080 Ti. RTX 2080 Ti has 352 bit GDDR6 bus, and RTX 3080 has 320 bit bus. Almost the same memory bandwidth, becasue of the GDDR6X..

Almost the same core clocks - RTX 3080 will have higher.

How do you get more performance out of almost the same specs?

MAGIC? Nvidia branding?
 
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AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
RTX 3080 being only 10-15% faster than 2080Ti would be a titanic fail. They might as well just lower the price of the 2080Ti and be done with it. I wouldn't move from a 1080Ti to the RTX 3080 if that's all it brought to the table, even at $600. Useless upgrade. 3090 would be good performance-wise but they wouldn't get many people to ditch their 1080Ti for a $1000 card. They'd piss off a lot of people though.

2080ti is 30-35% faster than 1080ti, IF 3080 is another 10-15% higher and IF it has a MSRP of $800 then you get 50% higher performance for the same price as 1080ti.

Not bad for an upgrade but not great if you think that 1080Ti launched 3.5 years ago.
 

DiogoDX

Senior member
Oct 11, 2012
747
279
136
I would like to know guys your explenation for "too low performance"?

Do you even realize how big IPC jump Nvidia would have to get, purely from ALU counts perspective, to get more performance out of their designs?

Have you guys taken into account the ALU count jump?

RTX 3080 has 68 SM's. The same amount as RTX 2080 Ti. RTX 2080 Ti has 352 bit GDDR6 bus, and RTX 3080 has 320 bit bus. Almost the same memory bandwidth, becasue of the GDDR6X..

Almost the same core clocks - RTX 3080 will have higher.

How do you get more performance out of almost the same specs?

MAGIC? Nvidia branding?
The 2X FP32 per SM rumor covers that IPC gain. 3090 should be 60-70% faster and the 3080 30-40% faster that a 2080Ti.
 
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Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,803
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The 2X FP32 per SM rumor covers that IPC gain. 3090 should be 60-70% faster and the 3080 30-40% faster that a 2080Ti.
That rumor is a complete BS.

Want to know why? Look at GA100 chip. Gaming cards are exactly the same architecture, with specific tweaks for gaming, and leaving out the GEMM stuff out of it.


Many months ago I have written here that next gen Gaming cards from Nvidia are not great from Rasterization perspective, but they are vastly better from Ray Tracing perspective.

Ray Tracing is what has consumed die area in next gen gaming cards. People have forgotten about this fact, it appears.
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,505
2,249
136
84 SM Ampere GPU - 40% Rasterization perf. improvement, over RTX 2080 Ti, 375W TGP - RTX 3090.
68 SM GPU - 10-15% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Ti, 320W TGP - RTX 3080.
48 SM GPU - 10% rasterization improvement over RTX 2080 Super - RTX 3070 Ti.
40 SM GPU - RTX 2080 performance - RTX 3070.
36 SM GPU - RTX 2070 Super performance - RTX 3060 Ti
30 SM GPU - RTX 2070 performance - RTX 3060
24 SM GPU - RTX 2060 performance - RTX 3050 Ti.
20 SM GPU - GTX 1660 Ti performance - RTX 3050.

RTX 3050 - 159$.
RTX 3050 Ti - 199$.
RTX 3060 - 249$
RTX 3060 Ti - 299$
RTX 3070 - 349$
RTX 3070 Ti - 449$
RTX 3080 - 599$.
RTX 3090 - 999$.

This is my prediction on price, and performance targets for Ampere GPUs.

If rumors are true you forgot to include ARM tax in your pricing.

I'll look at reviews, but won't be buying either way.
 

CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
5,539
613
126
RTX 3080 being only 10-15% faster than 2080Ti would be a titanic fail. They might as well just lower the price of the 2080Ti and be done with it. I wouldn't move from a 1080Ti to the RTX 3080 if that's all it brought to the table, even at $600. Useless upgrade. 3090 would be good performance-wise but they wouldn't get many people to ditch their 1080Ti for a $1000 card. They'd piss off a lot of people though.

I would be somewhat willing to shell out for one of these cards (although the top one will definitely be more than $1000) if I had more motivation for it. I find the 1080ti still runs 4K at 60hz pretty well. Sometimes I have to reduce settings from "ultra" to "high," which makes no perceptible difference to the graphics but increases the framerate a lot. Most AAA games these days are also moving to some form of multiplayer, which I am less interested in (and competitive players don't care about graphics and turn down settings anyway), while games a few years old work fine on the 1080ti. I'm actually kind of interested in upgrading but have to think hard to justify it for anything I would actually play, except for VR and 4K at 120hz, for which I have to replace my TV as well. That's the real problem with high end video card releases these days.