Originally posted by: locutus12
Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
I haven't seen that unofficial $160B Chinese budget listed anywhere on the net or elsewhere, and your official number of $60B is totally off. The highest unofficial estimate for China's military spending that I've seen is $90B, which is much more likely than the $160B figure you claim and certainly much higher than China's official military budget of $35.3B (2006).
Anyway, in pure numbers the 2007 DoD budget is set at $470B. That means China unofficially is outspent by the U.S. government by a factor of 13.3 in official numbers ($470B vs. $35.3B) or a factor of 3.1 if we assume China's defense spending really is as high as you say ($470B vs. $160B). More likely it's $470B vs. $90B, or a factor of 5.2. And this does not count the far higher U.S. intelligence spending (FBI, CIA, NSA, etc.) that is currently classified. Though, in 1998 the intelligence budget was $26.7B before the U.S. classified it and, no doubt, that $26.7B figure has
at least doubled in 10 years, due to Bush administration policy as well as the impetus for rearmament as a result of 9/11. Which puts the total U.S. intel/defense budget at $496.7 (07 DoD budget + 98 intel budget), with it being more likely $520B+ adjusted for today's numbers.
in 20 years the USA will no longer be the worlds economic driving power, it will no longer be the worlds richest country, and it will no longer be the most affluent country and eventually its military will be surpassed in size and technology. the Chinese, a communist country, will have successfully overtaken the USA in terms of economics, and with the massive workforce to back them up, it is doubtful anyone will be able to top them for a very long time.
Good lord.
you can good lord all you like, even at your best growth rates of say a constant 3.2%, The US economy cant stay ahead forever.
based on a growth of 9.6% in china for the next 20 years and there is no reason for that not to be sustained given the low value of the yuan, the large work force, the huge production capacity of China and it being the number one exporter of goods in the world, couple all these facts with massive consumer spending and you have a very good recipe for a long period of sustained economic growth.
even if the US manages an optimistic sustained 3% growth of GDP for the next 25 years and even if Chinas growth slows at that 20 year mark by a full percentile, the Chinese economy will still outstrip the US by 2040, you can do the maths yourself, US GDP for feb 2007 = 13.6 Trillion chese 2007 GDP currently 2.7 Trillion. Factor in growth of 3% sustained for the us and 9.6 sustained for china (i know this is a simplistic approach but it gives you a general idea) and drop Chinese GDP by a percentile at the 20 year mark and they will still out strip the US economy by the 30 year mark.
As for the chinese military spending,
CLICK ME
youl see that in 1999 it was already up to 88.9 Billion. you've also conveniently forgotten the scales of economies, i.e. in china you will get more work / resources from 88 billion than you would if you spent it in America.
figures courtesy of GlobalSecurity.org
as a testiment to the advanced technologies the Chinese are working on, they recently knocked one of their old satellites out using a kinetic warhead. now that's hardly old technology.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6289519.stm