American cars will be extinct by 2020.

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
That is my prediction.

American manufacturers have shot themselves in the foot.

1) Can't compete with imports. This can't be argued. At any given price point imports have many more and in the mind of consumers "better" choices.
2) Conditioned buyers to expect 0% or huge rebates - lead to squeezed profit margins and in ford's case profits in the red. People refuse to buy without these incentives.
3) Lost the battle in consumers minds. People just don't associate american cars with quality.
4) Unions - stupid high school dropouts demanding WAY too much in pay, benefits and retirement. Foreign country's labor is fractions of the cost. More erroded margins.

The only thing keeping them afloat now is the scant diversification of each corporation and soon that will be unable to sustain the losses and the cash will be tight (it isn't right now).

So long Detroit. We'll miss ya.
 

jagr10

Golden Member
Jan 21, 2001
1,995
0
0
American cars are extremely popular in some states. In fact, if you look at the top 40 stolen cars in a few states, only 1 is an import. I don't agree that american cars will be extinct.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
As long as some people buy with their dick instead of their brains "It was made in America so I'll buy it regardless of quality. Damn the foreigners. They hate freedom!" domestic dealers will never go extinct :p
 

brtspears2

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2000
8,659
1
81
American cars aren't that bad. If they were, we would have tossed them out like tainted Tylenol.
 

N8Magic

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
11,624
1
81
Originally posted by: spidey07
That is my prediction.

American manufacturers have shot themselves in the foot.

1) Can't compete with imports. This can't be argued. At any given price point imports have many more and in the mind of consumers "better" choices.
2) Conditioned buyers to expect 0% or huge rebates - lead to squeezed profit margins and in ford's case profits in the red. People refuse to buy without these incentives.
3) Lost the battle in consumers minds. People just don't associate american cars with quality.
4) Unions - stupid high school dropouts demanding WAY too much in pay, benefits and retirement. Foreign country's labor is fractions of the cost. More erroded margins.

The only thing keeping them afloat now is the scant diversification of each corporation and soon that will be unable to sustain the losses and the cash will be tight (it isn't right now).

So long Detroit. We'll miss ya.

rolleye.gif


1) American brand trucks and SUV's are of better quality and way more affordable than the imports. The cars I will agree with you at the moment suck pretty badly, but looking at what GM has released lately and what is coming down the pipe, that will be changing soon.

2) As quality rises, the need for rebates and incentives will lessen. This factor will also lessen once the economy improves and people have more money to spend on luxury items like new cars.

3) Currently, I would agree with you, but GM in particular has made great strides in initial quality and once they move out some older trouble plagued models, long term reliability should improve along with it.

4) I agree for the most part, but you can't paint every union member with the same brush as it just isn't fair.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: brtspears2
American cars aren't that bad. If they were, we would have tossed them out like tainted Tylenol.
Except no matter what some people will only buy American. The things could fall apart at 30k and some people would still only buy american.

 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,365
8,475
126
the biggest thing is their labor costs. as the pensioners die off they'll be able to put more money into the product.

also, brand images can change quite drastically in 15 years. bmw went from crap to uber. so did the japanese. anyone remember the awful rust problems japanese cars of the 80s had?
 

Babbles

Diamond Member
Jan 4, 2001
8,253
14
81
And you may wonder why some folks refer to you as 'fan boys'!!!

Buy a clue.

 

Shantanu

Banned
Feb 6, 2001
2,197
1
0
The American tech industry will be extinct by 2020. All you motherfvckers will be out of jobs.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
Seriously! This please don't turn this into a domestic vs. import war! I'd like to stay on topic of the plight of the big three, how bad it is and what they can do about it/if they can stop it.

I feel for the big three. But honestly given the circumstances I don't see any way out of it.

The point about the exorbarant pensions is a good one. But there are SO many basic indicators going against them right now that it looks pretty bad. Also it seems unions are unwilling to give up those lush pensions so how can that severe cash drain be diminished?

And as far as getting my head out of my rear - I suggest you read the wall street journal or business week for some insight.
 

Danman

Lifer
Nov 9, 1999
13,134
0
0
Originally posted by: Shantanu
The American tech industry will be extinct by 2020. All you motherfvckers will be out of jobs.

Okay kid.....go get your mommy to tuck you into your bed now......
 

Babbles

Diamond Member
Jan 4, 2001
8,253
14
81
GM is doing fine, Dailmer Chrysler is actually doing better now, I believe.

Ford, is having issues, though. However, it is called a business cycles. All business go thru ups and down *gasp* including the Japanese compaines. Nissan was in the slumps a few years back, for instance.

GM and Ford just dominate truck and commercial sales. Even when it gets to fleet sales GM dominates that. I do not see many Honda taxis and Toyota police cars.

I will agree, however, that domesitc unions are the suck and they do need to re-organize how they operate
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
Originally posted by: Schadenfroh
thats why ford and gm own all them european/japanese brands;)

Then why are profits squeezed so tight? Is this the kind of diversification they need? Or does it dilute the "american" brands and even canibalize them?

Or does it simply strengthen their product portfolio?
 

bolido2000

Diamond Member
Dec 3, 2001
3,720
1
0
There used to be tens of american car makers and now only 2 are left. Same thing will happen with Japan. Japan is restructing their economy and a lot of their car makers will be bought or will go bunkrupt. I except only Toyota, Honda will be the only "true" japanese corporations in the future. Same thing with Europe...their domestic markets are too small.
 

OREOSpeedwagon

Diamond Member
May 30, 2001
8,485
1
81
my mom said when i get my car i can't park it in the driveway if its an import...i don't care what kind of car it is, if its quality, looks good, and its not crazy expensive i'll buy it and park it wherever i want.
 

MistaTastyCakes

Golden Member
Oct 11, 2001
1,607
0
0
As long as some people buy with their dick instead of their brains "It was made in America so I'll buy it regardless of quality. Damn the foreigners. They hate freedom!" domestic dealers will never go extinct

Way to generalize, you are teh winnar!
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
Originally posted by: bolido2000
There used to be tens of american car makers and now only 2 are left. Same thing will happen with Japan. Japan is restructing their economy and a lot of their car makers will be bought or will go bunkrupt. I except only Toyota, Honda will be the only "true" japanese corporations in the future. Same thing with Europe...their domestic markets are too small.

Thank you bolido for the insight.

So is consolidation the key or the problem?
 

bolido2000

Diamond Member
Dec 3, 2001
3,720
1
0
Originally posted by: spidey07
Originally posted by: bolido2000
There used to be tens of american car makers and now only 2 are left. Same thing will happen with Japan. Japan is restructing their economy and a lot of their car makers will be bought or will go bunkrupt. I except only Toyota, Honda will be the only "true" japanese corporations in the future. Same thing with Europe...their domestic markets are too small.

Thank you bolido for the insight.

So is consolidation the key or the problem?

Consolidation is the key I would think. R&D cost are high, so unless you have a high volume sales you will lose money. Mega corporations like VW and GM share engines and parts to keep costs down. The thing is that each brand should have their own identity which is what GM is exactly NOT doing with Saab.
 
Apr 5, 2000
13,256
1
0
Originally posted by: spidey07
Seriously! This please don't turn this into a domestic vs. import war! I'd like to stay on topic of the plight of the big three, how bad it is and what they can do about it/if they can stop it.

I feel for the big three. But honestly given the circumstances I don't see any way out of it.

The point about the exorbarant pensions is a good one. But there are SO many basic indicators going against them right now that it looks pretty bad. Also it seems unions are unwilling to give up those lush pensions so how can that severe cash drain be diminished?

And as far as getting my head out of my rear - I suggest you read the wall street journal or business week for some insight.

And I do read those publications. It's safe to say by 2020 at least one of the big 3 will have filed for chapter 11, but to think that all 3 will be extinct in 17 years is ludicrous. Each has their strengths and weaknesses - each one is also big in overseas markets as well (Europe, Australia) GM is the #1 manufacturer in the world. Chrysler has Daimler's backing although that may/may not help. Ford is in a mode of transition - every company goes through a time of high costs. If you'd like to throw up proof of how all 3 will have perished in 17 years please do so, because speculation by magazine writers != the truth.
 

amnesiac

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
15,781
1
71
My Toyota Tundra was assembled in Indianapolis. Ford, GM, and Dodge all assemble their full size pickups in canada or mexico.
 

flxnimprtmscl

Diamond Member
Jan 30, 2003
7,962
2
0
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: brtspears2
American cars aren't that bad. If they were, we would have tossed them out like tainted Tylenol.
Except no matter what some people will only buy American. The things could fall apart at 30k and some people would still only buy american.

It goes the other way too. There are plenty of people who refuse to buy domestice because they feel that everything America makes is crap. I'm sure it kind of balances out.