AMD's 4th Quarter earnings...

[formulav8]

I was looking at stocks and such and factoring in the 1.5 billion from Intel they made over $1 billion apparently.

Otherwise it appears the adjusted loss is at .08 share which is apparently much less than expected. So doesn't look to aweful bad I guess.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/technology/amd-swings-profit-fourth-quarter/

Thanks to Drisek: http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2010/01/amd-posts-first-profit-in-13-quarters.ars

More info: http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/01/21/technology-general-industrials-us-earns-amd_7293714.html

 

[Phynaz]

Well the market sure doesn't like this news.

When am I going to learn not to straddle with AMD?

 

[waffleironhead]

So without the intel settlement money they are still in the red?

 

[Phynaz]

So without the intel settlement money they are still in the red?

Yes.

And they are predicting they will continue to be in the red this year also.

 

[Lonyo]

The conference call starts... now.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=74093&eventID=2632910

 

[BTRY B 529th FA BN]

Would it be a safe buy at the end of the year when the stock is < 5$ a share?

 

[formulav8]

Well the market sure doesn't like this news.

When am I going to learn not to straddle with AMD?

I bought when AMD was way below $9-$10/share awhile back.

Many People bought at $2 a share and even less. You just had a bad buying strategy. Not AMD's fought in that regard. Blame yourself if you didn't buy at the right times



Jason

 

[ShawnD1]

Would it be a safe buy at the end of the year when the stock is < 5$ a share?

It's never safe to buy AMD stock.

Support AMD by buying their products.
Support Intel by buying their stock.

 

[ViRGE]

Interestingly, it looks like AMD turned a profit on both CPUs and GPUs this quarter. The loss comes from their continued exposure to GF (to the tune of -100mil).

 

[Lonyo]

My notes from the conference call:

Q4 Revenue increases:
14&#37; desktop
19% notebook
21% server (revenue increases)

Revenue graphics $427m +40% seq
>10% in mobile discrete + workstation
$53m mobile (?)

Next quarter:
Revenue down seasonally
$550m operating expenses
Tax $3m(?)

Predictions for 2010:
40~45% margin (full year)
14~17% marketing
$340~$370m amort
$120m capital expenditure.
Positive free cash flow.

2010 as a whole - microprocessor pricing, aggressive or current levels?
Priced to gross margin dollar volume. Richer mix - up the product line and GPU attach rate increase.

Higher mobile GPU attach rate.
Mobile design wins.

Higher margins in the future (after selloff?)

2010 marketshare - notebook big opportunity. 50% or less than desktop share. Increasingly no good reason for that.
Healthy notebook customer footprint. Good product offerings. Good design win momentum.
Good opportunity for notebook share expansion.

10~15% overall growth overall 2010 (CPU+GPU/etc)
Expect to outgrow the market.
No worse than flat ASPs.

Cashflow/balance sheets will reflect product company only (not foundry).
Only connection to foundry through purchase and sale of wafers.

 

[drizek]

ars posts a rosier picture: http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2010/01/amd-posts-first-profit-in-13-quarters.ars

 

[JMapleton]

Anyone would be a fool to buy AMD's stock.

 

[TurtleCrusher]

Anyone would be a fool to buy AMD's stock.

You're a fool for not having a video card.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Its amusing that No one posted Intels earnings last week . AMD could post higher earnings in 1st qt.. But after they sell the remaining 30&#37; share of fabs . They will be paying more for each Cpu they sell . I agree those who didn't buy AMD @$1+ were foolish . That would include me also . But I really not interested in that stock. I made enough shorting them .

 

[Phynaz]

Well the market sure doesn't like this news.

When am I going to learn not to straddle with AMD?

Ouch this is painful. Down 11% so far, back where I bought D:

 

[Lonyo]

Its amusing that No one posted Intels earnings last week . AMD could post higher earnings in 1st qt.. But after they sell the remaining 30% share of fabs . They will be paying more for each Cpu they sell . I agree those who didn't buy AMD @$1+ were foolish . That would include me also . But I really not interested in that stock. I made enough shorting them .

No one posted Intel's earnings because they are uninteresting.
Everyone knew Intel was going to make a boatload of money and continue as they have been doing.

AMD is a much more interesting case to look at because they are in a much weaker position, hence the focus on the results.
Also, while material costing for CPUs might be increased due to outsourcing production, there is going to be a lot less expenditure on R&D and staff, and GF will be able to spread their R&D expenditure across a greater production base by having more fabs.
AMD even expect margins to improve going forward in the longer term (2011 ->) and to remain reasonable through 2010 (comparable to Q4 margins or higher).

The idea that they will end up paying more for their chips is true in one sense, but then you have to consider that they will no longer be paying a lot of other monies involved in having fabs, including servicing existing debt, and R&D costings, so overall costs could (and apparently will) in fact go down (if margins are to improve).
Intel is big enough to have their own fabs, AMD (arguably) is either too small, or too poor to be able to effectively compete both on a technological and manufacturing basis.

 

[rasczak]

Anyone would be a fool to buy AMD's stock.

i made out quite nicely thank you. I bought at 4 and sold at 9.

 

[Wreckage]

I think the problem will be when they unhitch from GF. They will have to start recording what they pay for chips, which will affect their balance sheet significantly.

 

[formulav8]

I think the problem will be when they unhitch from GF. They will have to start recording what they pay for chips, which will affect their balance sheet significantly.

Hmm, you may be right. I haven't even given that a thought....

 

[JMapleton]

You're a fool for not having a video card.

I have a EVGA 9500GT (I don't game).

I don't have my entire system in my sig to save space.

 

[JMapleton]

i made out quite nicely thank you. I bought at 4 and sold at 9.

Ok, a trade is different. I would not "invest" in AMD.

 

[Lonyo]

Hmm, you may be right. I haven't even given that a thought....

That's because it's not worth giving it any thought.

Tell me which of these companies have their own fabs, and which are fabless:

Going fabless won't really hurt AMD at all, since they are already closer to fabless companies in terms of margin than they are to Intel, who can easily afford fab development costs.

 

[Makaveli]

That's because it's not worth giving it any thought.

Tell me which of these companies have their own fabs, and which are fabless:

Going fabless won't really hurt AMD at all, since they are already closer to fabless companies in terms of margin than they are to Intel, who can easily afford fab development costs.

Good point!

 

[formulav8]

Yeps, you have a good point

That's because it's not worth giving it any thought.

Tell me which of these companies have their own fabs, and which are fabless:

Going fabless won't really hurt AMD at all, since they are already closer to fabless companies in terms of margin than they are to Intel, who can easily afford fab development costs.

 

[Wreckage]

Going fabless won't really hurt AMD at all, since they are already closer to fabless companies in terms of margin than they are to Intel, who can easily afford fab development costs.

That statement does not make much sense. Look how high Intel's margins are and they have their own fabs. If anything losing their fabs could hurt their margins because instead of making their own chips they will have to buy them from a company that will need to add profit to the cost.