AMD intros Crushing technology ......... and Stocks fall?

[OneEng]

I am somewhat confused (and pissed since I have lost money).
AMD has the following going for it:

1. Copper processing
2. .15um process on current machinery with out changes
3. .13um process with modification to current machinery
4. Mustang with larger cache and better IPC than P4 while having smaller die
5. SMP capable processor support with 760MP even for Duron
6. DDR support
7. 64 bit processor to compete in Enterprise segment that is completely 32bit compatible
8. 64 bit desktop version of enterprise core for competition with next generation CPU's
9. Number 1 in flash sales

With all this going on, I am confused that the stocks for AMD have fallen recently and Industry analyst have downgraded both Intel and AMD recently despite the recent projections that the PC industry will have greater than expected growth over the next 2 years.

Can anyone explain this?

 

[jpprod]

I believe most analysts solely look at Intel's situation when figuring out how microprocessor industry is doing in general. Also, by a vast majority of people the some obviously slanted sites - like ZDnet - are considered as reliable source of news and information.

To quote a poll at AMDzone: stock price is manipulated by idiots

 

[Vegito]

Stock is for long term, if you want to play short term, short stocks, I have a little over 4100 amd and around 1300 intels. I got intel 75 presplit which is around 37.5 bucks now, intel has fallen from its height but I'm confident this is only minor problem with the interest rate and fallen euros.

 

[Shudder]

I too believe people look at Intel as the market indicator.

Intel has problems, intel's sales come up short.. blah blah blah.

People bought AMD before and now AMD is actually turning a good profit.. It's bad for investors that the stock is falling, but just pick up more and eventually people will see AMD's earnings this next year and be like Holy sh!t!!! And the stock will probably jump up considerably.

That's just my thought though, I could and probably will be completely wrong.

And BTW OneEng: You wonder why Amd's stock is dropping -- it's because the people who analyze stocks and do forecasts have no idea and surely don't care about 1-8 of your points.

 

[Noriaki]

<< And BTW OneEng: You wonder why Amd's stock is dropping -- it's because the people who analyze stocks and do forecasts have no idea and surely don't care about 1-8 of your points. >>



Exactly.

When the tangible benefits of all the things you listed show (AMD starts making money off them) then their stock will go back up.

 

[Doggiedog]

You guys miss the point.

It's not always the company that has the best technology that wins the race. Its the one that has the best marketing.

Do you really think Microsoft, Cisco and Intel had the best technology when the market was wide open? I'm sure people will disagree but Microsoft had Apple, IBM OS2 and Netware as competition. Cisco had Bay Networks, 3Com and Cabletron and Intel had Motorola PowerPC, DEC Alpha and Sun Ultrasparc. I would say those main companies offerings were at BEST equal to the others but more likely subpar. But they won out.

Mind you, I am a fan of AMD (in fact I am a Wall Street analyst) but it takes time to convince people otherwise, especially the old crusty WS folk who have been burned by AMD numerous times. I would recommend looking at technology as a secondary factor when regarding companies. What you should look for primarily is company leadership (anyone notice how poorly Intel is doing since Grove retired?), production capability and industry positioning. You've got to look at all those factors.

I'll let you know something on why AMD is down. Despite having excellent yields on 2 very good chips (TBird and Duron), there is evidence that overall PC sales are slowing down. In June, Asustek MB sales were up 5% month over month but down 2% month over month in July. SCI just blew up blaming HWP cutbacks. HWP allegedly stuffed the PC channel to meet last Q's nunmbers. AMD's PC chipset manufacturers have recently been told they are on allocation by their Taiwanese fabs meaning there may be an upcoming AMD chipset shortage. Last week spot memory prices declined from $8.50 to $7.75 in one day. Windows ME is coming out shortly so people are likely to push out buying new PCs. All this stuff tends to lead one to believe something negative is up.

Hey, I love AMD but I'm kinda worried right now, at least short term (which is how alot of analysts think).

 

[Adul]

So it is a good time to buy then.

 

[SUOrangeman]

Here's another spin in the business realm of the technology world.

Amazon.com has yet to turn a profit. Same with RedHat. Hmmm.

-SUO

 

[KarsinTheHutt]

OneEng, I think the wolves of Wall Street are out make a buck off us. (No offense to any Wall Streeters out there - that's what you're paid to do)

Analysts &quot;downgrade&quot; the stock to make the price fall. The Trading Houses they work for slowly buy up the cheap shares as people sell.

When AMD reports good earnings, the stock will shoot up and they'll make a killing.

 

[Yza]

What more can I say,
&quot;A fool and his money will soon be parted.&quot;

I agree with doggiedog, marketing is the &quot;KEY&quot;, check out madonion.com and what card most users have in there systems (the voodoo3 series)... Need I say more? (no I'm not a 3dfx zelot)

 

[wake]

It's stock manipulation. It will take off like a bat out of hell shortly. (2 weeks maybe)

 

[sandorski]

I think we've all grown used to the idea of an ever expanding stock market, unfortunetly I think the market will remain stagnant until corporate profits catch up to investors. Could be years before we return to what we had for the last 4-5 years and it's likely that sometime in the next couple years that the market could take a beating as economies slow and skirt recessions.

No, I'm not a stock market analyst(if I was I would have used a bunch of fancy schmancy big assed terms ), but I did stay at a ....oh nevermind.

 

[OneEng]

Yes, I fully realize that anaylist have no clue about any of my points except the flash positioning.

Even the most stupid of analyist can understand that AMD has just released a new processor line recently. After said release, AMD has doubled reveue every quarter, and projected revenue continues this trend for several quarters to come.

Since this is the bottom line, I don't understand the trend.

On the subject of PC demand. Although US PC sales appear to be leveling off (not accelerating), foreign sales of PC's are accelerating to make up the difference. Given this favorable forcast for processor demand, I find it difficult to understand the pesamism in CPU demand. This is particularly curious since Intel has been repeatedly in the news talking about excessive demand being the cause of the Intel CPU shortage.

I suspect that after the earnings for Q3 become availible, this downward trend AMD has had (I purchased a hunk at 32.5 and another at 30.25) will rocket past my purchase price. It is just irritating that it has fallen when there is no good reason for the fall..... I know. It doesn't need good reason to fall.