AMD HD5xxx sales figures: 300k HD58xx, 500k HD57xx

[Lonyo]

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...of_DirectX_11_Graphics_Chips_Shipped_ATI.html

Well I guess that makes it easier to work out how well they've been doing.

Answers the question of how many they have made/sold.

The total market doesn't look like it will hit 20 million units for the quarter, so 800k of <20m total market is what it looks like they're heading for.

If we assume that they are selling basically all of the HD58xx cards they can make (stock levels indicate that's the case), then that's >300k sold so far, or a minimum $84m (@$280/card) in revenue.
500k of HD57xx cards at $140 minimum is another $70m.
Total market of maybe $3,000m and they are making up at least $150m of that.

 

[OVerLoRDI]

Glad to hear it for their sake. Also it is really awesome to see so many video cards bought, maybe PC gaming isn't quite so dead

 

[her209]

Is that $280 and $140 the wholesale price? even at ~$154m, that seems very little for a multi-billion dollar company.

 

[Painman]

Keep in mind, though, what AMD gets is only whatever they're selling the reference boards to the AIBs for. Hard to say how big their piece of the pie really is, but at least they're getting some pie.

 

[BFG10K]

I wonder how much more they&#8217;d sell if there weren&#8217;t any 40nm shortages?

 

[Lonyo]

Is that $280 and $140 the wholesale price? even at ~$154m, that seems very little for a multi-billion dollar company.

That's based on the lowest price of an HD57xx card (the HD5750) and the lowest price of an HD58xx card ($279 HD5850).
That's sales revenue calculated by me, and not what AMD will have as their own revenue (since they only sell the chips), but it's useful when looking at total market revenue. That's also pretty much worst case scenario, based on the lowest retail price for the given cards. The actual revenue will be higher both because of the product mix, and the fact that outside the US prices are higher.

As far as the &#37; of that money that AMD will see, it's going to be a fair bit less.
Their entire graphics revenue for the previous quarter was $306m, and AMD's CPU revenue was a little over $1bn.

Bear in mind though that they did only represent about 1/3rd of the discrete market, and that these are only desktop cards, and they've only been out 2 months or so.

 

[Wreckage]

The total market doesn't look like it will hit 20 million units for the quarter, so 800k of <20m total market is what it looks like they're heading for.

That would be 1 in 20 cards sold is a DX11 card.

 

[Lonyo]

That would be 1 in 20 cards sold is a DX11 card.

And with some really funky guesstimations, estimating a 40/60 split, so <8m units for AMD, and 25% of them being non-gaming cards (complete guesses based on what I might expect, relative market expenditure etc), then maybe 20~25% of AMD's gaming level cards are DX11 supporting.
25% penetration with seemingly restricted availability and killing themselves with value with tihings like the HD4850/70/90 cards being better than the HD57xx cards isn't too terrible.

If they killed off the HD48xx cards then it might encourage HD57xx sales a bit more, improving the proportion of DX11 cards, but really the value isn't there at the moment for the customer.

 

[bryanW1995]

not only that, but even with improved supply they'd be hard-pressed to keep up with demand in 57xx if they killed off 48xx

 

[ronnn]

looks like decent news for ati, but wonder how much they cost with such poor yields?

They also seem to be selling a lot of 47-4800 variants around here.

 

[MrK6]

First, HOLY CRAP has the video card market contracted, wow, great table. In reference to the article, that's a pretty decent volume for new graphics cards, especially considering they only have parts available for the mid range and high-end segments. Imagine what will happen when entry level parts roll out. I'm also curious as to how much the supply issues curbed these figures.

 

[Ayah]

I wonder how much more they’d sell if there weren’t any 40nm shortages?

I'd bet like 3-4X, since they'd be selling for MSRP or less and since nVidia doesn't have competition for it.. Plus, Christmas is just a few microns away.

 

[SlowSpyder]

That would be 1 in 20 cards sold is a DX11 card.

Not too bad considering the 40nm shortages, how expensive 300,000 of those shipped parts cost, and the fact that there aren't too many DX11 games yet.

 

[exar333]

Wow. Look at Q4 2007 versus Q4 2008. Thats less than half the units and close to only a third of the amount of sales.

 

[jvroig]

Am I the only one amazed that the 57xx series also seemed to have done well, despite negative press from a lot of people here?

300K for 58xx and 500K for 57xx is a ton of cards sold for something that is brand new. The 56xx will probably sell close to a million cards in the same time span, or maybe even more in case of wider OEM adoption?

 

[ShadowOfMyself]

Yeah it goes to prove that the average joe just cares about the bigger number on the box

"5700 is higher than 4800 so it must be better!"

 

[bryanW1995]

I just conducted a very scientific poll and found out that from dec 08 to aug 09, the newegg customer choice award for video cards went to an nvidia card in some form or another (1 9800gtx, 4x 260, 2 x 275, 1x280, and 1x 285). The past 3 months have been 4870, 5870, and 5770 cards.

This is what happens when you stay up until 2:14 am.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

The fact that the 5850 isn't a customer choice card demonstrates exactly how worthwhile those polls are.

 

[faxon]

yea god knows i never check my email often enough to vote on them, and yet i buy enough items nominated that i bet 1/3 of my current lineup was at least nominated. my ram, motherboard, monitor, and several of my hard drives all got voted as a customer choice award worthy product, and while i agree, there are plenty of undeserving products on there as well

 

[jvroig]

Yeah it goes to prove that the average joe just cares about the bigger number on the box

I'm sure a large, large part of the sales do come from that. But I'm sure there are also some who are coming from ancient cards (HD 3xxx or lower) and decided to upgrade to a 5xxx instead of 4xxx. Whether they are right to do so or not, depends, and it's not for me to pass judgement. Maybe they have a few more concerns rather than performance/buck.

 

[cganesh75]

$280 and $140 is not the price AMD sells its GPU chips for. Revenue for AMD is way less than that.. they only get money for each GPU they sell the board manufacturers... they also have to pay TSMC for every wafer.

in reality its more like $100 a 58xx GPU and about $40- $50 for a 57xx gpu

 

[tviceman]

800,000 sounds like a pretty damn good number considering the supply problems they have been having.

Nvidia needs Fermi out yesterday. Even if it ends up only equal to or slightly better than the 5XXX series, they'll at least be able to focus on future revisions and there will be DX11 competition and choices.

 

[Idontcare]

800,000 sounds like a pretty damn good number considering the supply problems they have been having.

Nvidia needs Fermi out yesterday. Even if it ends up only equal to or slightly better than the 5XXX series, they'll at least be able to focus on future revisions and there will be DX11 competition and choices.

From here we estimated that Cypress yields were 54% and Juniper yields were 73% and that there are roughly 167 cypress dies on a wafer and roughly 358 Juniper dies.

That works out to 90 sellable Cypress dies per wafer (all 58xx) and 260 sellable Juniper dies per wafer.

So 300k cypress skus (presumably not a large percentage of dual-gpu 5970's in that) would work out to around 3,500 wafers.

And 500k juniper skus would work out to around 2000 wafers.

That's actually not a lot of 40nm wafer starts per month when you spread that out across the four months or so (probably closer to five to include pre-launch inventory buildup) they have had to create that much product.

Think about it, that's 5500 wafer total for 4 months of market supply. The rumors were/are that Nvidia pre-ordered and banked 9000 wafers just in preparation for a hard-launch of Fermi. For some reason I was really under the impression that AMD was pushing many more 40nm wspm this whole time. I'm not sure what to think of all this right now, it can mean so many different things, gonna have to let this settle for a while before adding any more comments.

 

[Borealis7]

800K out of a billion potential consumers in the market is not a good number. should've been 10 times that.

but its still a heck of alot more than nVidia's number of DX11 parts shipped
right now, AMD has sold INFINITY times more units than nVidia. haha.

 

[jvroig]

Revenue for AMD is way less than that.. they only get money for each GPU they sell the board manufacturers... they also have to pay TSMC for every wafer.

I understand the spirit or meaning of your post (and you are spot on), but we need to clarify that in as far as revenue is concerned, it is different from net income or profit.

Revenue simply means sales. So if AMD sells 100,000 cards for a total of $20M, then their revenue is $20M.

Net income or profit is revenue minus total expenses (like TSMC wafer costs, component costs, other indirect costs, etc, collectively known as COGS/P or cost of goods sold / produced). So if they have $20M in revenue, but COGS/P is $13M, their net income or profit (not revenue) is $7M.

So, "revenue" is pretty close to what the article and the OP stated. What is "far less" as you put it is net income / profit.