Article "AMD Has Lost"

[DigDog]

somebody please help me link this because my browser isn't being helpful:

Why AMD’s best days are behind it

AMD had a shot to catch Intel and blew it.

www.marketwatch.com

Accoridng to Daniel Newman, principal analyst at Futurum Reseach, AMD "has lost".

I'll directy you straight away to the .. humorous video of Gamers Nexus who are extremely perplexed at the amount of lies and bad facts in said article, to the point where nobody with a bit of knowledge of the current market could make those mistakes. Video starts at 2:40

I really, REALLY hope this isn't a marketing tactic sponsored by Intel because that would .. be disgusting, but also suggest that things are much worse than expected, in Intel.

I hope this is satisfactory.

Iron Woode
Super Moderator

 

[Paul98]

Yeah people should have just listened to me instead rather than these idiots that have no clue about the space.

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From jan 19th 2016
"Looks like it could be time to buy some stock in AMD "

 

[DrMrLordX]

PS3 was $600 at launch in 2006. It won't be that bad.

 

[lobz]

What's the common factor in the CPU and GPU forum wars?

They both have U in them

 

[lobz]

-

Happens all the time in the Financial Services sector. Impossible to prosecute.

ksec hit the nail on the head - their P/E ratio is stratospheric so it's now a speculators stock and not fundamentals based. It can't continue at that level indefinitely, but that doesn't mean it won't stay that way for a good bit of time. That certainly doesn't mean AMD has "lost", though. Big companies don't change vendors easily - that is the hardest nut for AMD to crack.

Halfway through your post I wanted to immediately ask this: what does this have anything to do with AMD losing as a company?
But then you were essentially agreeing with me

 

[rbk123]

PS3 was $600 at launch in 2006. It won't be that bad.

Yow. That's almost $770 in current coin.

 

[zinfamous]

Yow. That's almost $770 in current coin.

Important to note that PS3 was also the cheapest BD-capable player anywhere at the time. (well, also cheaper than any HD-DVD players). A lot of that cost was due to the expense of entering into the emerging HD media market.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Important to note that PS3 was also the cheapest BD-capable player anywhere at the time. (well, also cheaper than any HD-DVD players). A lot of that cost was due to the expense of entering into the emerging HD media market.

A lot of the cost was also due to the massive amount of money Sony spent on their own fabs just to mass-produce Cell. In any case, going from $770 in 2020 dollars to $470 in 2020 dollars is still not terrible.

 

[mopardude87]

If you are a gamer, you will be - and should be - unconcerned with Spectre / Meltdown exploits beause you are not likely to ever be attacked.

Yup me and my friend both agree here.

As far as any losing goes,just going by the title of the thread goes the only lost is in 1080p and some cases 1440p gaming? Yeah i didn't read the article sorry. Ryzen 4000 will prob seal the deal honestly for Intel till whatever drops in whatever 2020-2022? Prob off on the years but i hear this is delayed,that is pushed back or this is drop kicked for that.

Doesn't help Intel is stuck on 14nm STILL. Of course we are getting another 14nm series this year and well why not. I need one of those 10900k chips to double as a space heater at the end of the year. I am ranting as someone who is simply in the market this year. Whatever is best in the $500 prob will be my choice at end of year unless we get more cores and threads in the $300-$450 range.

 

[DigDog]

Games Nexus has a video today of the rumoured i7 10700K - 8 core, 3.8Ghz, boost to 5.3Ghz.

(edited the typo from 10900k to 10700k)

 

[Avalon]

I've been around this forum a long time. It's always been biased towards performance/$. Most of its users were completely trashing Bulldozer and AMD at the time.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Games Nexus has a video today of the rumoured i7 10700K - 8 core, 3.8Ghz, boost to 5.3Ghz.

That boost has me wondering how often it'll show up in stock config.

 

[Ajay]

That boost has me wondering how often it'll show up in stock config.

I suppose it will depend on the cooling solution used. Reviews on CML are going to be interesting. We need to buy some popcorn before they come out - this and other forums are going to go mad!

 

[VirtualLarry]

5.3Ghz boost clock? Whoa! So, like, "5Ghz" is now "old news"? LOL.

If only I could get my G3258 up to those clocks, that would be fun. (On an ITX board? LOLOLOL.)

 

[amrnuke]

Happens all the time in the Financial Services sector. Impossible to prosecute.

ksec hit the nail on the head - their P/E ratio is stratospheric so it's now a speculators stock and not fundamentals based. It can't continue at that level indefinitely, but that doesn't mean it won't stay that way for a good bit of time. That certainly doesn't mean AMD has "lost", though. Big companies don't change vendors easily - that is the hardest nut for AMD to crack.

My (probably unpopular) opinion: anyone buying a stock trying to make over general market value on it primary based on fundamentals (PE or EV/EBITDA) should probably just be index investing. If you're buying stocks based on knowledge of the company's future direction, products, vendors, contracts, momentum - that's where there's money to be made in the market. And that's where people who bought AMD stock based on those very principles (future direction, momentum, products, etc.) over the last 2-3 years have already made a great deal of income.

For AMD, right now, the PE and EV/EBITDA are telling you not that it's a speculator's stock (the smart speculators have already purchased), but rather that unless you feel that AMD's future growth has not already been factored into its price, now is just not a good time to invest in it.

 

[DigDog]

For AMD, right now, the PE and EV/EBITDA are telling you not that it's a speculator's stock (the smart speculators have already purchased), but rather that unless you feel that AMD's future growth has not already been factored into its price, now is just not a good time to invest in it.

remember that stock fluctuation is because of PERCEIVED value of stock not FACTUAL value of stock. And, many investors are not .. trained, or even smart enough, to make an informed decision. If Ryzen 4000 starts to get plastered everywhere in the media as THE INTEL KILLER (which, you know, it probably will), then the fact that AMD is a smaller company, with less historical control of the market, etc etc nowhere near as stable as Intel, will not matter anymore - people will buy the stock, the stock will go up.
And while, this is correlated to the quality of product that AMD is building, it isn't directly caused by it, at least, not for the larger part.

Do you know that you can trade stocks on MANY mobile apps, starting with negligible capital? And that these are being promoted just about everywhere as, "apps people should have". And they do. Do you think that sort of investor (never mind if they are safe) can correctly value the price of a stock?

 

[amrnuke]

remember that stock fluctuation is because of PERCEIVED value of stock not FACTUAL value of stock.

Not quite. The stock value currently is because of EXPECTED FUTURE VALUE, not some reflection on its current value.

And, many investors are not .. trained, or even smart enough, to make an informed decision.

But the large investors who actually cause much of the stock price change ARE trained and smart enough to make an informed decision to buy now, before the technology and improved corporate position get realized as earnings per share. And they have. Jo Schmo dumping $2,000 into AMD isn't going to shift the stock price. Blackrock and Strata snapping up $5 million does. Those companies have legions of well-connected people in each industry making advisory decisions about investments.

If Ryzen 4000 starts to get plastered everywhere in the media as THE INTEL KILLER (which, you know, it probably will), then the fact that AMD is a smaller company, with less historical control of the market, etc etc nowhere near as stable as Intel, will not matter anymore - people will buy the stock, the stock will go up.

Not quite. Large investment groups will start buying up the stock, because good news improves mindshare and eventually (most of the time) sales and stock desirability. However, the large investment groups already probably have a solid idea that Zen3 is going to be excellent, and it's why they've already purchased large amounts of AMD stock based on the limited news we've had already. Those people already know that 7nm+ on EUV means less voltage, less heat, more clocks. So they already know the reviews. And good reviews means that more people will start buying AMD product, so the price of AMD stock SHOULD go up.

Do you know that you can trade stocks on MANY mobile apps, starting with negligible capital? And that these are being promoted just about everywhere as, "apps people should have". And they do. Do you think that sort of investor (never mind if they are safe) can correctly value the price of a stock?

As above, people using mobile apps to invest aren't making a dent in the stock price. It's still institutional investors making the biggest impact.

And no, I don't think these Janes and Joes (like you and I) can correctly state what the price of a stock should be, because we don't know the future of these companies nearly as well as the large institutional investors who have connections with executives in the industry.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Not quite. Large investment groups will start buying up the stock, because good news improves mindshare and eventually (most of the time) sales and stock desirability. However, the large investment groups already probably have a solid idea that Zen3 is going to be excellent, and it's why they've already purchased large amounts of AMD stock based on the limited news we've had already. Those people already know that 7nm+ on EUV means less voltage, less heat, more clocks. So they already know the reviews. And good reviews means that more people will start buying AMD product, so the price of AMD stock SHOULD go up.

I've been looking at AM4 mobo prices lately, and other than a few A320 boards for $50 or so, most of the B450 boards, even the micro boards, start at $70-75.

Maybe it's just inflation at work, but I remember a "deluxe" Z170 ATX board going for $80 at launch, and lots of lesser-chipset boards for cheaper (like $35-50). (That's on an Intel platform.)

So, that tells me something, that there is now a "premium" attached to AM4 platform boards, and they must be selling pretty decently.