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AMD financial results predictions thread

Phynaz

Phynaz

Lifer
As discussed in the video forum here http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2256727, AMD warned on revenue yesterday. So let's have a little fun for a week. I'll have a prize for the person that comes closest. In the event of a tie, first poster wins.

So what are your predictions for GAAP income (not revenue)?

Here's mine:

Net loss of $300M
 
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What I don't get is why the revenue decline? Intel hasn't made any price changes, have they? So why would AMD have lost marketshare these past 3 months? Is it GPU's and competition from NVidia's 28nm?

Yeah BD isn't super-competitive but that didn't just suddenly become the case in the past 90days, BD's performance and pricing was already baked-into the prior 3% revenue growth forcast.

So what changed in the past 90days that blindsided the AMD insiders who do the forecasts?
 
Idontcare said:
What I don't get is why the revenue decline? Intel hasn't made any price changes, have they? So why would AMD have lost marketshare these past 3 months? Is it GPU's and competition from NVidia's 28nm?

Yeah BD isn't super-competitive but that didn't just suddenly become the case in the past 90days, BD's performance and pricing was already baked-into the prior 3% revenue growth forcast.

So what changed in the past 90days that blindsided the AMD insiders who do the forecasts?
Click to expand...

Can be a lower CPUs average price as well as inability to supply demand
due to limited manufacturing capacities.
 
Idontcare said:
What I don't get is why the revenue decline? Intel hasn't made any price changes, have they? So why would AMD have lost marketshare these past 3 months? Is it GPU's and competition from NVidia's 28nm?

Yeah BD isn't super-competitive but that didn't just suddenly become the case in the past 90days, BD's performance and pricing was already baked-into the prior 3% revenue growth forcast.

So what changed in the past 90days that blindsided the AMD insiders who do the forecasts?
Click to expand...

I don't think the problem is in Desktops, but Laptops and Servers.

Servers: Quite obvious. Servers are known to switch to newest CPU technology quick. Due to delay on the much-anticipated Xeon E5, some customers could have been waiting for purchase while opting for competition as well. Case in point: AMD server shares increased by 1.1% in Q1 over Q4 2011, a substantial amount. Coincidentally, Q1 is when Xeon E5 was launched. Apple, an extreme example of waiting for new product purchase, shows that launch quarters show reduction in sales.

That's not true in Q2 anymore. E5 probably took a lot of share away.

Laptops: Intel is actually pricing their products very aggressively on the low end. Sandy Bridge i3/i5 and Ivy Bridge i3/i5 costs an identical $225 for list pricing, but they have volume discounts. The pricing from cheap to most pricey is Sandy Bridge i3/Ivy Bridge i3/Sandy Bridge i5/Ivy Bridge i5.

That is reflected in Intel's ASPs of being only $100, in what they call "Premium category", basically all Core chips.
 
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well, intel sales did drop when they were about to release ivy...

the same probably happen here with amd and trinity 😛
 
Olikan said:
well, intel sales did drop when they were about to release ivy...

the same probably happen here with amd and trinity 😛
Click to expand...

In Desktops and Laptops its not that obvious. That IMO is shown in what's called a "ramp cycle", or what percentage a certain product line has over company sales. In servers, its very fast, and older generation is quickly displaced. In PCs, its not. Nehalem based chips still sell in the market, something that's almost inconceivable in servers.
 
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I'll go with a net loss of 63 million - don't believe they have any write-offs this quarter to be dragging their results down. While the Q2 results will be somewhat interesting, the real comparisons between how AMD's and Intel's offerings are doing in the market will have to wait 'til Q3 at least - that's when we'll begin seeing the effect of IVB, Trinity, and Ultrabooks/Ultrathins.
 
That's too bad AMD is taking a loss. I just bought a C-60 powered netbook/notebook, and I really like it. It has great battery life, and lets me do what I need to do with it.

I could even run skype with video-conferencing, while watching an online streaming video. Not 100% smooth on the online video, but that's true even with skype not running. Skype never skipped though.
 
Hmmm...Just read that AMD is saying their cost of product is unchanged at something over $600M. That could bode well for actually posting a profit.

Would be a great surprise!
 
$26M profit.

I'm an optimist sometimes.....lol!

That and I think everyone's forgetting last qtr's loss was because of the $703M final payment for "release" from their old fabs. AMD would've had a profit last qtr if not for that. So, even with declining revenues, their margins should remain about the same, even with the release of the 7XXX gpu series.
 
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Phynaz said:
Hmmm...Just read that AMD is saying their cost of product is unchanged at something over $600M. That could bode well for actually posting a profit.

Would be a great surprise!
Click to expand...

mmm.... nice find
time to buy stocks 😀
 
Phynaz said:
Hmmm...Just read that AMD is saying their cost of product is unchanged at something over $600M. That could bode well for actually posting a profit.

Would be a great surprise!
Click to expand...

So the production cost is the same, but they get payed 11% less? Thats pretty disasterous.
 
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