AMD expects further APU, CPU declines, cuts chip orders to GF

[desprado]

Advanced Micro Devices on Thursday revealed that it had signed a new wafer supply agreement (WSA) with GlobalFoundries for 2015. Based on the disclosed terms of the agreement, AMD will significantly reduce purchases from GlobalFoundries, which indicates that the company projects further declines of PC-related product shipments this year.
Under the terms of the new agreement, AMD expects wafer purchases from GlobalFoundries to be approximately $1 billion this year on a take-or-pay basis, which is a decline from 2014. Last year AMD planned to spend $1.2 billion on purchases from GlobalFoundries, but its actual purchases from the company in 2014 were approximately $1 billion due to lower fourth quarter purchases.
GlobalFoundries is AMD’s largest manufacturing partner. The company produces accelerated processing units, central processing units, graphics processing units as well as semi-custom APUs for video game consoles for the Sunnyvale, California-based chip designer.


Since demand for PS4 and XB1 system-on-chips is expected to increase this year, this means that the share of such semi-custom APUs in AMD’s purchases from GlobalFoundries will rise as well. However, it also means that the share of APUs, CPUs and GPUs for personal computers will decline in AMD’s purchases from its main partner. Even in the best-case scenario, if everything goes well for AMD this year, the company does not expect sales of its microprocessors and accelerated processing units for PCs to exceed sales of such chips in 2014.
In Q1 2015, AMD spent $161 million on wafer purchases from GlobalFoundries, which is another indicator that the company’s business is declining.
Both International Data Corp. and Gartner forecast that shipments of PCs will drop in 2015. Therefore, it is not surprising that AMD projects its APU, CPU and GPU sales to decline. However, it is noteworthy that AMD does not plan to reclaim market share it has lost to Intel Corp. over the years.


KitGuru Says: AMD does not seem to be very ambitious or optimistic, which is understandable. This year the company will barely have any all-new products to offer to customers (code-named “Carrizo” APU and “Fiji” GPU seem to be good for their market segments, though). Therefore, all the company wants is to stabilize its positions, sustain revenue and earn some profits. Next year AMD plans to introduce brand new microprocessors based on “Zen” and “K12” micro-architectures as well as all-new graphics processors. Perhaps, this is when AMD will actually initiate its fight back?

http://www.kitguru.net/components/g...alfoundries-expects-further-apu-cpu-declines/

 

[VirtualLarry]

Well, the PC market is slowly imploding, and AMD with it. Too bad.

Makes me wonder, even if "Zen" is a technologically-proficient chip, will there be any customers left for it, besides a small subset of the "gamer" population, that has a preference for AMD. Meaning, that there won't be very many mainstream "Desktop" CPU/APU customers in a year or two. Everyone is moving to mobile, or the few that still want pseudo-desktop form-factors, will be buying NUCs or Brix units, or even possibly the Intel Compute Stick and clones.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Well, the PC market is slowly imploding, and AMD with it. Too bad.

Makes me wonder, even if "Zen" is a technologically-proficient chip, will there be any customers left for it, besides a small subset of the "gamer" population, that has a preference for AMD.

Yea, definitely. If its good they can cut it down and it'll be good for low power chips too.

Remember nowadays due to thermals and power consumption limits its all about perf/watt design and that benefits universally from the lowest power Tablet chips to highest end Servers.

 

[erunion]

The WSA is such an enigma. Lately its take or pay aspect has had no teath. GF has been forgiving unfilled orders.

 

[soccerballtux]

AMD would probably die if they didn't

 

[desprado]

AMD would probably die if they didn't

Actually they are dying right now but slowly and painfully.

 

[jhu]

Actually they are dying right now but slowly and deadly.

They're dying a deadly death.

 

[tortillasoup]

They're dying a deadly death.

Dying due to death can be deadly.

 

[Idontcare]

Dying due to death can be deadly.

The deadliest death of them all tends to be fatal, mostly.

 

[JDG1980]

Makes me wonder, even if "Zen" is a technologically-proficient chip, will there be any customers left for it, besides a small subset of the "gamer" population, that has a preference for AMD. Meaning, that there won't be very many mainstream "Desktop" CPU/APU customers in a year or two. Everyone is moving to mobile, or the few that still want pseudo-desktop form-factors, will be buying NUCs or Brix units, or even possibly the Intel Compute Stick and clones.

With Zen + updated GCN + HBM on a 16nm FinFET process, AMD should be able to create all-in-one chips that provide better all-around performance than Intel's competing products. The CPU performance (at least per-core) will not be quite as top-notch, but the GPU performance will be better by a mile - Intel just has no decent GPU tech, even Iris Pro can't come close to a $99 discrete card. For most users, who almost never max out their CPU, it will be a much better choice. The problem with existing AMD APUs is that the CPU portion is too weak and inefficient because it's Bulldozer-based, and the GPU portion is starved of memory bandwidth because it relies on slow DDR3. Zen should fix the former problem and adding HBM should fix the latter. In addition to stand-alone sales, a product like this has the potential to get next-generation console design wins, and maybe even purchases from Apple as well.

 

[ShintaiDK]

We just have to wait till the end of 2016 to see if it actually delivers?

And AMDs CPU revenue will be what by then? AMD already hold less than 5% of PC CPU revenue. Most likely in the 2-3% range.

 

[jhu]

The deadliest death of them all tends to be fatal, mostly.

There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Isnt "mostly dead" like being a little bit pregnant?

 

[LurchFrinky]

There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do.

Go through his clothes and look for loose change

 

[railven]

Well, the PC market is slowly imploding, and AMD with it. Too bad.

Makes me wonder, even if "Zen" is a technologically-proficient chip, will there be any customers left for it, besides a small subset of the "gamer" population, that has a preference for AMD. Meaning, that there won't be very many mainstream "Desktop" CPU/APU customers in a year or two. Everyone is moving to mobile, or the few that still want pseudo-desktop form-factors, will be buying NUCs or Brix units, or even possibly the Intel Compute Stick and clones.

Was debating asking a similar question in VG&C but that place turns into a flame war I just didn't bother.

With AMD in such bad shape, what confidence does anyone have buying into the Free-sync line of monitors that as of right now would only really benefit an AMD GPU?

As someone who wants to buy a GPU+Monitor in the next few months, I won't lie that this now weighs on my decision.

 

[Yuriman]

I wonder if Ati would have been better off had they not been bought out, and if AMD's CPU business will take their GPU business down with it?

 

[Fjodor2001]

We just have to wait till the end of 2016 to see if it actually delivers?

Hopefully we'll get tech info & leaks in advance, so we can start to get a hint of things to come.

And AMDs CPU revenue will be what by then? AMD already hold less than 5% of PC CPU revenue. Most likely in the 2-3% range.

What's more interesting is what CPU revenue AMD will have some time after they have delivered Zen. :awe:

 

[ShintaiDK]

What's more interesting is what CPU revenue AMD will have some time after they have delivered Zen. :awe:

<1%?

 

[MiddleOfTheRoad]

I wonder if Ati would have been better off had they not been bought out, and if AMD's CPU business will take their GPU business down with it?

IMO, yes.

That is the problem with mergers -- you create such a large entity with so many divisions that you lose focus. I think AMD would have had better CPU's if they had used the ATi cash for R&D. As I had mentioned in the past, I wish AMD purchased a cheaper video card company (XGI / S3) to have sourced their integrated graphics for APU's. All that debt from the ATi purchase continues to haunt them.

 

[Fjodor2001]

<1%?

If we're just wild ass guessing I think >100% is more likely to be honest. That is given the base revenue they are starting from, and that this is a completely new uArch also benefiting from 14 nm. Doubling revenue it not that much when taking that context into account.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I really wish AMD would get its shit together. I have been disappointed with AMD boxes recently however this doesn't mean I want them to fail.

 

[mrmt]

If we're just wild ass guessing I think >100% is more likely to be honest. That is given the base revenue they are starting from, and that this is a completely new uArch also benefiting from 14 nm. Doubling revenue it not that much when taking that context into account.

You mean the uarch they designed with the Microserver market in mind, the market they just recognized it isn't growing as expected and wrote off their OEM subsidiary? Doubling revenue? Yes, that's what I call wild ass guessing.

 

[Fjodor2001]

You mean the uarch they designed with the Microserver market in mind

Care to specify what source you have saying that this is the main target for Zen?

 

[mrmt]

Care to specify what source you have saying that this is the main target for Zen?

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjYxMjY0fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1

Check slide 9:

Ambidextrous Computing Leadership
x86 and 64-bit ARM for:

Dense Server
Embedded
Semi-Custom
Ultra-Low
Power Client

 

[Dave2150]

With Zen + updated GCN + HBM on a 16nm FinFET process, AMD should be able to create all-in-one chips that provide better all-around performance than Intel's competing products. The CPU performance (at least per-core) will not be quite as top-notch, but the GPU performance will be better by a mile - Intel just has no decent GPU tech, even Iris Pro can't come close to a $99 discrete card. For most users, who almost never max out their CPU, it will be a much better choice. The problem with existing AMD APUs is that the CPU portion is too weak and inefficient because it's Bulldozer-based, and the GPU portion is starved of memory bandwidth because it relies on slow DDR3. Zen should fix the former problem and adding HBM should fix the latter. In addition to stand-alone sales, a product like this has the potential to get next-generation console design wins, and maybe even purchases from Apple as well.

I think it's very cute how some people just assume Zen will be released on time and that it will offer superior performance to Intel CPU's.

Considering the delays Intel had with 14nm, I very much doubt AMD will be able to roll out Zen smoothly, when you consider their shrinking R&D budget.

Then even if it does roll out on time, in late 2016, it could just be another Bulldozer - crap performance.

Then we also have to consider what Intel will have by late 2016/early 2017. You really think AMD will outperform it, judging by their previous architecture?