AMD doing things right.

[Aenslead]

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/11/0...ps-1101markets08.html?partner=yahootix

and...

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=27526

Good news always welcome.

 

[Viditor]

I think most of this we already know...though to me, the interesting bit was:

AMD has also made inroads on notebooks to the tune of 31.5% share in American shops compared to 20% last June

Notebooks are one of Intel's last strong sectors (the other being corporate accounts). It will be interesting to see how Turion does after the new notebooks are released in Jan/Feb...

 

[Markfw]

I already got a Turion notebook and love it ! way $150 cheaper than the Pentium-M, and its fast !

 

[Capt Caveman]

Originally posted by: Markfw900
I already got a Turion notebook and love it ! way $150 cheaper than the Pentium-M, and its fast !

And 64-bit which is nice

 

[sandorski]

sweet

 

[Zebo]

Just wait till conroe comes AMD will be at $4 again.

AMD is swandering lead with phat payoffs to executives right now. As it turns out AMD has a Santa Claus division, aka "pay bonuses to AMD employees" unit which loses 66 million a quarter and is sucked up by execs instead of returned to sharholders or reinvested in company to keep shareholders happy and performance lead. Thier quarter profits would have been double if execs did'nt have an instant gradification persona. What do they care it's not thier baby? They'll just go to another company and milk it.

 

[Gheris]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Just wait till conroe comes AMD will be at $4 again.

AMD is swandering lead with phat payoffs to executives right now. As it turns out AMD has a Santa Claus division, aka "pay bonuses to AMD employees" unit which loses 66 million a quarter and is sucked up by execs instead of returned to sharholders or reinvested in company to keep shareholders happy and performance lead.

Hoping this is not true, but I have seen this before. Hopefully seeing the door that will be opened by this increase in market share will allow AMD to see the light and not do such a thing......however, many execs(this includes CEOS as well) are known for doing the same dumb things over, and over.

 

[Zebo]

It's true and AMD will always be severely stunted competing seriously against Intel is because they don't have money, and for execs to milk the cow when money is needed most to me is almost criminal bad management. Least Intel waitied till they had billions in profit every quarter to give intel type bonues, nothing wrong with that..But AMD should'nt be giving intel type bonues until they are earned.
http://www.overclockers.com/tips00850/

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Just wait till conroe comes AMD will be at $4 again.

AMD is swandering lead with phat payoffs to executives right now. As it turns out AMD has a Santa Claus division, aka "pay bonuses to AMD employees" unit which loses 66 million a quarter and is sucked up by execs instead of returned to sharholders or reinvested in company to keep shareholders happy and performance lead. Thier quarter profits would have been double if execs did'nt have an instant gradification persona. What do they care it's not thier baby? They'll just go to another company and milk it.

???
For the first time in quite awhile, AMD paid bonuses to it's employees. The $66 M you speak of was
1. absolutely well earned by a whole range of employees
2. not a normal quarterly payment but a one-off payment

How in the world do you expect to keep what are obviously top-end people without an occasional bonus? What's even more interesting is that AMD blew past earnings even WITH the bonuses!

As to Conroe dropping AMD to $4, that's just silly and you know it...

 

[Zebo]

I'm selling short sometime before next summer..lets see how silly I am.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Zebo
It's true and AMD will always be severely stunted competing seriously against Intel is because they don't have money, and for execs to milk the cow when money is needed most to me is almost criminal bad management. Least Intel waitied till they had billions in profit every quarter to give intel type bonues, nothing wrong with that..But AMD should'nt be giving intel type bonues until they are earned.
http://www.overclockers.com/tips00850/

Oh God...not Stroglio again! Sigh...

Ed-baby just doesn't understand this stuff...
1. AMD now has 17.8% of the worldwide marketshare based on units (Ed says 19% which is off unless he only thinks in terms of desktops, then he's probably way low). This has been published by Mercury...
2. By increasing their ASP, their marketshare based on REVENUE is much higher (closer to 30%)!
3. The Memory Group is being IPOed this quarter (that was a $50 M Operating loss in Q3)
4. Both ASPs and unit sales are increasing every quarter (and have done so for 8 quarters).

As an aside, I'm an AMD investor (and have been an Intel investor as well) with a substantial number of shares...I actually bought a large block as Ed was posting his diatribe. Thank God I did! The stock's up 15% since he made his dire precictions...

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Zebo
I'm selling short sometime before next summer..lets see how silly I am.

Great, and thanks for the cash!

Edit: I'd like to add some other bits here...
1. AMD's rise from $13 to $26 over a 5 month period recently was due in no small part to a short squeeze. Many investors lost a lot of money on it...
2. Might I suggest (if you really feel that AMD is going to do poorly) that you invest in a put instead. This will limit your exposure to loss (shorting a stock is still one of the only investments that has unlimited loss potential).

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Zebo
It's true and AMD will always be severely stunted competing seriously against Intel is because they don't have money, and for execs to milk the cow when money is needed most to me is almost criminal bad management. Least Intel waitied till they had billions in profit every quarter to give intel type bonues, nothing wrong with that..But AMD should'nt be giving intel type bonues until they are earned.
http://www.overclockers.com/tips00850/

Oh God...not Stroglio again! Sigh...

Ed-baby just doesn't understand this stuff...
1. AMD now has 17.8% of the worldwide marketshare based on units (Ed says 19% which is off unless he only thinks in terms of desktops, then he's probably way low). This has been published by Mercury...
2. By increasing their ASP, their marketshare based on REVENUE is much higher (closer to 30%)!
3. The Memory Group is being IPOed this quarter (that was a $50 M Operating loss in Q3)
4. Both ASPs and unit sales are increasing every quarter (and have done so for 8 quarters).

As an aside, I'm an AMD investor (and have been an Intel investor as well) with a substantial number of shares...I actually bought a large block as Ed was posting his diatribe. Thank God I did! The stock's up 15% since he made his dire precictions...

#1 AMD had 21% way back in 2001. Slipping even with superior tech.

.. good point on #2 since AMD does'nt have to pay Dells advertising like Intel.

#3 And those bonuses are deserved how again? (Not to mention you sell things for a profit sell things before they tank instead of losers..flash was making profit when Hector got there)

#4 That's nice and they can do that with superior performance lead as they have now...every tech reviewer says so increasing demand and coresponding commerce. But this will all be over when Conroe comes. Not only will it perform better clock for clock. Intel will be able to ramp higher Mhz, sell cheaper, run cooler all due to 65nm coming out at least 6 months before AMD.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Zebo

.. good point on #2 since AMD does'nt have to pay Dells advertising like Intel.

#3 And those bonuses are deserved how again?

#4 That's nice and they can do that with superior performance lead as they have now...every tech reviewer says so increasing demand and coresponding commerce. But this will all be over when Conroe comes. Not only will it perform better clock for clock. Intel will be able to ramp higher Mhz, sell cheaper, run cooler all due to 65nm coming out at least 6 months before AMD.

The bonuses went to sales guys who far exceeded expectations (especially in the server sector), tech and manufacturing people who have kept costs lower than expected, and the management teams who are responsible for them. As a shareholder, I really consider this a reinvestment in the company going forward...
BTW, Ruiz and his staff didn't give themselves any extra money at all...though IMHO, they deserved it.

I don't see how you can predict that Conroe will be better in any way when
1. We don't know when or even if Conroe is being released (Intel has changed plans so many times that you have to feel like Charlie Brown and the football with Intel playing the part of Lucy...)
2. We don't know what clockspeed Conroe will be released at (if it is)
3. We have no idea what AMD will be releasing when this finally does occur
4. AMD is already producing 65nm parts, but obviously doesn't have the need to release them to maintain their competitive advantage...

Edit: sorry, I missed the first line "#1 AMD had 21% way back in 2001. Slipping even with superior tech"
AMD achieved 21% by dumping all of their K6 product in Asia at cost...if you look at the revenue numbers, you'll see that they had a huge jump in unit sales with very little increase in revenue (relatively speaking).

 

[Zebo]

Yahoo Finance

 

[Accord99]

Originally posted by: Viditor
2. By increasing their ASP, their marketshare based on REVENUE is much higher (closer to 30%)!

Intel has higher ASPs. If you look at their earnings report, AMD has ~12% of total x86 CPU revenues.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Yahoo Finance

LOL...nice photoshop. Good luck!

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Accord99

Originally posted by: Viditor
2. By increasing their ASP, their marketshare based on REVENUE is much higher (closer to 30%)!

Intel has higher ASPs. If you look at their earnings report, AMD has ~12% of total x86 CPU revenues.

Thanks for the correction Accord! It's 13.34% actually...but I was indeed WAY off!
Of course that's a good move from the 9% a year ago...

 

[Aenslead]

Ooooh!! yeah... WHEN Conroe comes.

And Conroe will perfrom like this, and it will do that, too!
But... strangely... people seem to think AMD is doing nothing? Do you think AMD will have no tangible response to Intel's next gen processors?

That sounds like:
"Oh.... you naughty AMD Athlon! just you wait until Pentium 4 comes! you'll see!"

I agree. Silly as can be.

Share price has risen because profits and increased market shared are already predicted. Speculation on futures? Maybe... but based on facts and hard, cold numbers.

 

[fatty4ksu]

Intel will unleash some chips in the future that will make life hell for AMD.

 

[dmens]

The only hard cold numbers I see is the painfully slow gain in market share caused by AMD's mediocre response to Intel's mistakes, and the lawsuit feels awfully like a disgruntled temper-tandrum. I hate to tell you this, but share price is a random crap shoot and really doesn't mean much at all.

As for speculation on the technical prowess, it is true that the outcome of Conroe vs K9 or Nehalem vs K10 is hard to predict, but you know what, as long as they are not radically different, it won't make a difference... naturally the fanboi will cling on to the belief that AMD will remain supreme in performance forever, but that's just a pipe dream LOL.

Speculation on real issues, like business health and a clear vision for the future? AMD really has not executed well on that at all as their current financial state demonstrates.

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: Aenslead
Ooooh!! yeah... WHEN Conroe comes.

And Conroe will perfrom like this, and it will do that, too!
But... strangely... people seem to think AMD is doing nothing? Do you think AMD will have no tangible response to Intel's next gen processors?

That sounds like:
"Oh.... you naughty AMD Athlon! just you wait until Pentium 4 comes! you'll see!"

I agree. Silly as can be.

Share price has risen because profits and increased market shared are already predicted. Speculation on futures? Maybe... but based on facts and hard, cold numbers.

They arnt doing anything. For all practical purposes they are on K7 still and I havre heard nothing about a new CPU design. And if intel gets serious, slaps a mem controller on thier p6 (aka conroe/PentiumM) it's all over! Did everyone miss the crippled P-M benches against a full fledged FX? Pretty close of you ask me. Add in real memory, and not worried about power envelope so much, and whatever other tricks they have from now till then Intel can really work this chip. Then like Dems just said, even is results are similar, Intels household trusted name will carry the day at all levels. Not to mention they offer a complete platform CPU + chipset which is very important to many..rather than AMD relying on any hack who comes along.

Even as big of a mistake as p4 was , I mean reviewers literally laughing at it, Intel still gained market share.. what you think will happen when they release a chip that runs faster, cooler, less power?

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: dmens
The only hard cold numbers I see is the painfully slow gain in market share caused by AMD's mediocre response to Intel's mistakes, and the lawsuit feels awfully like a disgruntled temper-tandrum. I hate to tell you this, but share price is a random crap shoot and really doesn't mean much at all.

As for speculation on the technical prowess, it is true that the outcome of Conroe vs K9 or Nehalem vs K10 is hard to predict, but you know what, as long as they are not radically different, it won't make a difference... naturally the fanboi will cling on to the belief that AMD will remain supreme in performance forever, but that's just a pipe dream LOL.

Speculation on real issues, like business health and a clear vision for the future? AMD really has not executed well on that at all as their current financial state demonstrates.

Actually, I disagree...
The AMD "fanbois" believes that AMD will extend their performance supremacy MUCH farther...
And the Intel "fanbois" believes that Intel will come back and overtake AMD's lead...
Both are just beliefs and based on pure speculation...

As to AMD's current financial state, it is healthier than it's ever been and improving every quarter (and has been for 2 years).
As to the lawsuit, almost every knowledgeable person in the industry (even Anand) had the same reaction...it's long overdue!

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Zebo

They arnt doing anything. For all practical purposes they are on K7 still and I havre heard nothing about a new CPU design. And if intel gets serious, slaps a mem controller on thier p6 (aka conroe/PentiumM) it's all over! Did everyone miss the crippled P-M benches against a full fledged FX? Pretty close of you ask me. Add in real memory, and not worried about power envelope so much, and whatever other tricks they have from now till then Intel can really work this chip. Then like Dems just said, even is results are similar, Intels household trusted name will carry the day at all levels. Not to mention they offer a complete platform CPU + chipset which is very important to many..rather than AMD relying on any hack who comes along.

Even as big of a mistake as p4 was , I mean reviewers literally laughing at it, Intel still gained market share.. what you think will happen when they release a chip that runs faster, cooler, less power?

Ya know, I see comments like "slap in a mem controller" or "just add 64 bit extensions" all the time...it's evident that most people just don't realise what's involved in doing that!
For example, do you think that Intel pushed back CSI just because they didn't feel like releasing it now? This stuff is HARD, and requires YEARS! Even when you know what you want to do, you have to redesign everything to accomodate it, and then it's changed everything else you've done...
The engineers at Intel are very good, and if it was easy to do, they would have had CSI, on-die mem controllers, and 64bit extensions on all of their processors at least 2 years ago...
Another thing people forget is that by modifying the P-M to accomodate these changes, they are MODIFYING THE P-M! That means it may very well not perform the same as the 32bit/slower clocked version at all...

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Zebo

They arnt doing anything. For all practical purposes they are on K7 still and I havre heard nothing about a new CPU design. And if intel gets serious, slaps a mem controller on thier p6 (aka conroe/PentiumM) it's all over! Did everyone miss the crippled P-M benches against a full fledged FX? Pretty close of you ask me. Add in real memory, and not worried about power envelope so much, and whatever other tricks they have from now till then Intel can really work this chip. Then like Dems just said, even is results are similar, Intels household trusted name will carry the day at all levels. Not to mention they offer a complete platform CPU + chipset which is very important to many..rather than AMD relying on any hack who comes along.

Even as big of a mistake as p4 was , I mean reviewers literally laughing at it, Intel still gained market share.. what you think will happen when they release a chip that runs faster, cooler, less power?

Ya know, I see comments like "slap in a mem controller" or "just add 64 bit extensions" all the time...it's evident that most people just don't realise what's involved in doing that!
For example, do you think that Intel pushed back CSI just because they didn't feel like releasing it now? This stuff is HARD, and requires YEARS! Even when you know what you want to do, you have to redesign everything to accomodate it, and then it's changed everything else you've done...
The engineers at Intel are very good, and if it was easy to do, they would have had CSI, on-die mem controllers, and 64bit extensions on all of their processors at least 2 years ago...
Another thing people forget is that by modifying the P-M to accomodate these changes, they are MODIFYING THE P-M! That means it may very well not perform the same as the 32bit/slower clocked version at all...

It's my understanding AMD and Intel have Tech share agreements so if AMD wanted to make netburst they could and if Intel wanted to make A64's they could. So as far as "hardness" I'm not sure it's an issue for an already existing product from eother company. Intel put on EMT-64 immediatly after they discovered people were actually buying it from AMD in it's original form A64. As far as your comments above about speculation, no it's not.. its interpolation of a few things. P-M's performance, P-M's scaling these clock sky high already on low volts, Intels 65nm preview - less power higher clocks - which will debuet at least 6 months before AMD. I don't think it's pure speculation, I think chip teams are gooing to release product now instead of marketing department under Olliveri. The only speculation is how high these Conroe will debuet exactly, when, and what kind of instructions and features they will gain. But even if intel choose to release a 3Ghz P-M right now it would be very competitive.