personally, I'd actaully consider the 4400+ (of course I'm not, because both models are over $500, but that's besides the point). Considering that the price difference between the two is like $40, compared to the $300 price difference to jump from 4400+ -> 4600+ or the $200 to go from 4600+ -> 4800+, It seems like a solid choice. Throw in the fact that most 90nm hammers all seem to top out around the same speed regarding overclocking, regardless of model number, and going with the cheapest 1MB cache for just $40 more than the cheapest 512K cache models seems like a good idea.
Of course, if the $40 is that big of a deal (it's less around 8% of a difference, btw), then maybe you shouldn't be buying an X2 right now - why not wait for the rumored july price cuts and/or the dual core 3800+/4000+ that are no doubt going to show up within 2 months (look at both the socket 754 and 939 launches for examples of exactly the same type of strategy by AMD). I bet within 2 months there will be sub-$300 dual cores, maybe even down to $225-250. AMD will only sell high end chips while it is ramping up production, then release low end parts a few months later when production is good and they can afford to lose an occasional $500 sale in favor of several $200 sales.