News AMD 2021 Q4 Earnings

Saylick

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AMD Earnings Slide Deck: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_8673b1e876d56c181768b458de9812a9/amd/db/778/6682/file/AMD+Q4'21+Financial+Results+Slides.pdf

AMD posts a monster earnings report and guidance for 2022:
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) reported Q4 EPS of $0.92, $0.16 better than the analyst estimate of $0.76. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4.8 billion versus the consensus estimate of $4.52 billion.

GUIDANCE:

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. sees Q1 2022 revenue of $4.9-5.1 billion, versus the consensus of $4.32 billion.


  • For the first quarter of 2022, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $5.0 billion, plus or minus $100 million, an increase of approximately 45 percent year-over-year and approximately 4 percent quarter-over-quarter. The year-over-year increase is expected to be driven by growth across all businesses. The quarter-over-quarter increase is expected to be driven by higher server and client processor revenue. AMD expects non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 50.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. sees FY2022 revenue of $21.5 billion, versus the consensus of $19.27 billion.

  • For the full year 2022, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $21.5 billion, an increase of approximately 31 percent over 2021 driven by growth across all businesses. AMD expects non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 51 percent for 2022.
Financial Outlook for 2022:
1643755739975.png
 
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Markfw

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I read that short article, but of course NO real details. THATS what I want to see.
 

DisEnchantment

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1643753697554.png
1643753731859.png


1643751971402.png1643752049600.png

Zen4 coming later in 2022 for EPYC but 2H22 for Ryzen. No brainer, but it reads to me like Azure comes first before DIY.

That guidance is looking great, assuming they sandbag like how they did like in 2021, they could grow in the 45-50% range.
Add Xilinx in the mix and suddenly the threat to Intel in a couple of years time looks very very grave.
USD 28-30B revenue by 23, USD 40B in 24...
Financial power of Intel is slipping, add to that the massive fab investments they are making.

The near future looks good for them.
Genoa-->Bergamo-->Turin, Raphael-->Granite Ridge, Phoenix-->Strix Point, RDNA3-->RDNA4, MI300-->MI400, all of these within a span of two years or less.

UPDATE:
Lisa is not expecting much share gain but more revenue share in the client segment for the FY22. Zen4 gonna be dear.

FAD 2022 on June 9th.
 
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Saylick

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I read that short article, but of course NO real details. THATS what I want to see.
Sorry about that lol. Just wanted to get the high level summary posted to start the thread, and at the time I posted, this was breaking news so I found the quickest source that had a summary. Kudos to @DisEnchantment for posting some slides from AMD's earnings presentation.
 
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Markfw

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Sorry about that lol. Just wanted to get the high level summary posted to start the thread, and at the time I posted, this was breaking news so I found the quickest source that had a summary. Kudos to @DisEnchantment for posting some slides from AMD's earnings presentation.
After reading, its everything I thought. AMD is continuing to get market share, especially in servers, and there is no end in sight for the domination on all fronts. (except, Yes Alder lake is still gaming king)

And confirmed, 96 cores for Genoa, and 128 cores for Bergamo, with power efficiency for cloud !
 
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eek2121

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View attachment 56833
View attachment 56834


View attachment 56830View attachment 56831

Zen4 coming later in 2022 for EPYC but 2H22 for Ryzen. No brainer, but it reads to me like Azure comes first before DIY.

That guidance is looking great, assuming they sandbag like how they did like in 2021, they could grow in the 45-50% range.
Add Xilinx in the mix and suddenly the threat to Intel in a couple of years time looks very very grave.
USD 28-30B revenue by 23, USD 40B in 24...
Financial power of Intel is slipping, add to that the massive fab investments they are making.

The near future looks good for them.
Genoa-->Bergamo-->Turin, Raphael-->Granite Ridge, Phoenix-->Strix Point, RDNA3-->RDNA4, MI300-->MI400, all of these within a span of two years or less.

UPDATE:
Lisa is not expecting much share gain but more revenue share in the client segment for the FY22. Zen4 gonna be dear.

FAD 2022 on June 9th.
It says in the slides that Genoa is next year.

EDIT: misread that. anyways, it sounds like both are on track to launch later this year.
 

positivedoppler

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Intel is still 4X the revenue, but AMD doesn't have to spend 30Billion a year on FAB since I think the two company is very close to approaching to 50/50 overall market.

Thinking back 4 years ago, those were some amazing glues.
 

maddie

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Intel is still 4X the revenue, but AMD doesn't have to spend 30Billion a year on FAB since I think the two company is very close to approaching to 50/50 overall market.

Thinking back 4 years ago, those were some amazing glues.
It seems humpty dumpty could have been glued back together after all.
 
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Markfw

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Intel is still 4X the revenue, but AMD doesn't have to spend 30Billion a year on FAB since I think the two company is very close to approaching to 50/50 overall market.

Thinking back 4 years ago, those were some amazing glues.
Intel still has way more than 50% of the market, but every quarter, AMD is changing that. We hope for equity in 5 years or so. We all win if they get close to equity. ($$$$)
 
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positivedoppler

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Intel still has way more than 50% of the market, but every quarter, AMD is changing that. We hope for equity in 5 years or so. We all win if they get close to equity. ($$$$)
Yup, that would be nice! We're winning right now. The price of EL with the amount of cores. Intel was charging us almost $1,000 for a 4c8t not that long ago.
 

beginner99

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I hope this puts the last nail in the coffin about bad miners being responsible for high prices. Prices go up and margins go up. It is crystal clear like when NV hiked prices "due to higher costs" that it was all BS and they just squeezing us dry.
 

Timorous

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I hope this puts the last nail in the coffin about bad miners being responsible for high prices. Prices go up and margins go up. It is crystal clear like when NV hiked prices "due to higher costs" that it was all BS and they just squeezing us dry.
GPU prices are miles above MSRP. Not sure what that looks like from AMD to AIBs but a lot of that extra pricing in stores tacking it on because people pay it.

Margins are going up because of extra server sales but 50% GM is still not great vs Nvidia, Qualcomm and Xilinx. Even Intel with their issues over the last 5 years managed 49% GM.
 

DrMrLordX

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Solid numbers from AMD. One thing that really jumped out at me:

Operating Cash Flow $3.5 billion, up 229% year-over-year.

. . .

Must be nice having that kind of cash available!

As usual, the rest of the numbers are difficult to read since they mix their markets up the way they do. Should be interesting to see if server/embedded manages to surpass compute/graphics for a few quarters of 2022.
 

yuri69

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The near future looks good for them.
Genoa-->Bergamo-->Turin, Raphael-->Granite Ridge, Phoenix-->Strix Point, RDNA3-->RDNA4, MI300-->MI400, all of these within a span of two years or less.
Two years from now?

2022 - Rembrandt - Genoa - Raphael
2023 - Phoenix - Bergamo - Raphael 3D?
2024 - 3nm ready? => Strix Point - Turin - Granite Rapids

Zen 5-based products depend heavily on the target <5nm process.

The shape of the RDNA3 2022 release remains to be seen. Apparently, there is a 6nm refresh of the current RDNA2 lineup coming. So it sounds more like a mix of the refreshed RDNA2 and some new RDNA3 chips for 2022. RDNA4 and MI400 are still kinda far away.
 
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AtenRa

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Hmm, Operating Income of EESC surpasses C&G by a substantial margin for the first time.

Computing and Graphics

Net Revenue = 2,584
Operating Income = 566

Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom


Net Revenue = 2,242
Operating Income = 762
 

leoneazzurro

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There will be more refresh in 6nm, all the RX6xxx series ?

It may have sense for anything below RDNA3: if rumors are true, Navi33 should be in 6nm and have performance largely similar to Navi21, but there were no leaks so far about lower end chips (performance level on par with 6700XT and 6600XT). So a shrink of these on 6nm + shrink could be a solution for these product ranges.
 

Timorous

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It may have sense for anything below RDNA3: if rumors are true, Navi33 should be in 6nm and have performance largely similar to Navi21, but there were no leaks so far about lower end chips (performance level on par with 6700XT and 6600XT). So a shrink of these on 6nm + shrink could be a solution for these product ranges.
I can't work out how AMD are going to build their product stack.

If we look at the bottom of the stack options (starting at x6 series) and assuming that AMD can shove 16GB of VRAM onto a 128 bit bus for a reasonable price we get the following product stack.

7600XT - 12GB - N22 6nm. Just under 300mm^2 but with good performance at upto 1440p and acceptable 4k performance it would make for a good card. Give it slightly higher clocks than the 6700XT and you can get a few % extra performance and charge around $450 for it. Large price hike for the x6 tier but probably just about on the right side of the perf/$ uplift even if it is a bit disappointing.

7700XT - 16GB - N33. Probably around 400mm^2. Smaller bus than N21 and on 6nm rather than 7 will save space. Great 1080p/1440p and good 4k card just like the 6900XT is. Probably around $600. Another MSRP price hike for this tier but vs the 6900XT it is a perf/$ uplift MSRP to MSRP which is also true of the 6700XT vs 7700XT MSRP to MSRP. 6800XT to this though would be less flattering but still just about a perf/$ uplift vs MSRPs and a good uplift vs street pricing.

7800XT - 24GB - N32. Two dies + Infinity Cache dies probably is not cheap to make but should be a good bit faster than the 6900XT. Can see this starting at $1,200. 20% more MSRP but maybe a 50% or greater performance uplift vs the 6900XT.

7900XT - 32GB - N31. Again multiple dies makes this more expensive. If the 2.5x perf vs the 6900XT is true I could see a $2,000 MSRP.

This is about the only reasonable product stack I can build based on what we know but there is a huge jump between the 7700XT and 7800XT. Possible AMD will fit 3 cards into the 7800 range (7800 XTX, XT and vanilla perhaps) to make that jump seem smaller.

If AMD cannot put 16GB of ram on the 128 bit bus cost effectively then it makes it a lot trickier.

7600XT - 8GB - N33. Seems too large a die for this segment. Would mean price has to be around $500 or something and for 6900XT performance it seems good but the 8GB will be limiting at 4k and it might suffer at 1440p as well like the 3070 does. Can't see people wanting to pay $500 for a 1080p card with 1440p caveats and 4k limitations but I also can't see how AMD will charge less for a 400mm^2 die. It is also a $120 MSRP price hike for the x6 part and even though the performance uplift would still give it a good perf/$ ratio it is not a great look. OTOH have you seen the street price of a 3070 lately?

7700XT - 12GB N32. Again with multiple dies I don't think AMD will want to sell this part for much less than $1,000. It would offer better than 6900XT performance though so the performance/$ uplift is likely there and the extra ram and IC will mean 4k is probably fine.

7800XT - 16GB N31 - cut down slightly. $1500 + easily IMO which for 2x 3090 performance is a relative perf/$ steal.

7900XT - 32GB N31. $2,000 +. Barely faster than the 7800XT but 2x the ram as a true halo part / 8k part. Again though if it is 2.5x the 6900XT it has a perf/$ increase to justify the high price.

I look at this and expect AMD will go for the former of these options and eat the VRAM cost. Also N33 is likely coming after N31 and N32 so by then maybe the higher density ram will be less expensive. I don't expect AMD to shrink N21 unless they can shove it in laptops or it is really cheap to do so because I can't see a place for them to use it long term. N22 and N23 on the other hand will get used in laptops and can fill in the gaps until the full RDNA3 stack is released.
 
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leoneazzurro

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Rumors say N33/7600XT will get 8Gbytes even if we may see clamshell RAM versions with 16 Gbytes. A hypothetical 7500XT based on N22 shrink on N6 would be around 270mm^2 and be sold with 6Gbytes of RAM instead of 12, or we could see a cut down bus on that part (128 bits instead of 192, as the target resolutions would be smaller). Higher tier parts would retain more RAM and bus will be less an issue if AMD will use tons of Infinity Cache stacked like it seems they will do judging by the rumors. Bìtw, I think this topic is more for the GPU discussion, so I will stop here.
 

jpiniero

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UPDATE:
Lisa is not expecting much share gain but more revenue share in the client segment for the FY22. Zen4 gonna be dear.
Kind of waiting to see if they will mention client unit shipments in the 10Q but yeah. Seems mostly a continuation of the skyrocketing ASP (in Q3, it was -23% unit shipments but +83% ASP).
 

jpiniero

Lifer
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Kind of waiting to see if they will mention client unit shipments in the 10Q but yeah. Seems mostly a continuation of the skyrocketing ASP (in Q3, it was -23% unit shipments but +83% ASP).
Finally they posted it, and while they didn't mention Q4 specifically, for the year client unit shipments were down 8%. ASP though was up 57%, heh heh.

Computing and Graphics net revenue of $9.3 billion in 2021 increased by 45%, compared to $6.4 billion in 2020, primarily as a result of a 57% increase in
average selling price, partially offset by an 8% decrease in unit shipments. The increase in average selling price was primarily driven by a richer mix of Ryzen,
Radeon and AMD Instinct products. The lower unit shipments were primarily driven by a strategic focus on premium and higher end products in a tight supply
environment.
 

scineram

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Wait, they cut C&G shipments in 2021? Unreal. They really pussied out completely on their supply agreements.
 
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