AMD 2013 Q1 Earnings on Thursday - lets see how the numbers are going to be...

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Qianglong

Qianglong

Senior member
Jan 29, 2006
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Today AMD will announce Q1 2013 earnings and lets see how they'll kick off the new year! Any guesses and bets on what the numbers are going to be like?

Since it's on Thursday and not Monday, updating the title to reflect that (before anyone else gets confused)
-ViRGE
 
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Centauri

Centauri

Golden Member
Dec 10, 2002
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With the console wins now confirmed, guidance is going to be much more important than last quarter's numbers.
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Centauri said:
With the console wins now confirmed, guidance is going to be much more important than last quarter's numbers.
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Both the results and guidance are important. First because the industry is still heavily strained, we need to see if management is correctly forecasting demand and AMD hasn't too much margin for mistakes. Guidance is equally important. They need to increase revenues by 30% if they are to reach Kumar's forecasts in Q3, and if they get some bad results today, they will probably need to announce something, be it cuts, or asset sales, etc.
 
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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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Centauri said:
With the console wins now confirmed, guidance is going to be much more important than last quarter's numbers.
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As pc sales slump amd stands to lose more than intel because their portfolio is far weaker. Then dont have the same options to navigate.

The guidance is also important to learn more about the reception of temash and kabini. The more weak and indirect amd is in their speak, the more f..ked they are.

Communication from the mubadala owned companies have lately turned into near fairytale stories. Someone at amd and gf need to man up and stop that destructive practice. Who want to do business with someone that talks funny and weird.

There is one lady at amd. Give her the stick. And later the big stick.
 
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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
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mrmt said:
Both the results and guidance are important. First because the industry is still heavily strained, we need to see if management is correctly forecasting demand and AMD hasn't too much margin for mistakes. Guidance is equally important. They need to increase revenues by 30% if they are to reach Kumar's forecasts in Q3, and if they get some bad results today, they will probably need to announce something, be it cuts, or asset sales, etc.
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Somehow amd have survived until today. You guys might not beliewe it but for nearly most of its entire life have it not made a profit and was weaker and more unimportant than it is now.

Still this looks like a significant time in its history. It can turn into jaguar and embedded, or stay with more performance oriented solutions. Amd have a lot of new products comming.

I think amd need to put some hard facts on the table. Some huge design wins for temash and kabini and solid stories about kaveri. If not, its just going the embedded way and a bad or a more bad q1 doesnt make the difference. The forecast needs to be precise whatever the future. The guidance is therefore the most important today imho. For q2 they need to deliver.
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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krumme said:
Still this looks like a significant time in its history. It can turn into jaguar and embedded, or stay with more performance oriented solutions. Amd have a lot of new products comming.
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I think they are already past this phase.

They chose embedded, Kabini, and whatever custom designs they can get, and they are out of the bleeding edge. The reason why we don't see that is because there is a huge lead time between developing an IC and marketing it.

What we are seeing now as Vishera is what AMD thought in 2010 after canning the 45nm Bulldozer. Only in 2014/2015 we'll have a clear idea on what Rory Read funded on the beginning of his term at AMD.
 
K

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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The ownership structure and the wsa clouds and complicate judgement. It cant be any different inside amd. Even when you have full insight the added uncertainty about mubadala decisions and gf direction make it unbelieweble difficult to do some accurate scenario planning.

On top of that fast navigating and changing direction is slowed down because of the stakeholder situation and coordination.

Add the usual years to design. The natural complexity of productionntechnology and you have placed yourselv in a situation with only the slimmest managerability - few bottons to push.

No wonder it was difficult to find top candidate for the ceo position. Probably rr can be as good as any. It seems the situation is out of amd own control.
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
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Qianglong said:
Any guesses and bets on what the numbers are going to be like?
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My guess is that regardless the specific numbers involved, the discussion will become (1) x86 is doomed, ARM will be king, (2) AMD is doomed, Intel will be king, and (3) PC's are doomed, smartphones and tablets will be king.

And if it had happend 4yrs ago then we'd all be blaming Bush, but now we just blame Microsoft and Win8 GloFo and Hector Ruiz ;)
 
frozentundra123456

frozentundra123456

Lifer
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
642
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Idontcare said:
My guess is that regardless the specific numbers involved, the discussion will become (1) x86 is doomed, ARM will be king, (2) AMD is doomed, Intel will be king, and (3) PC's are doomed, smartphones and tablets will be king.

And if it had happend 4yrs ago then we'd all be blaming Bush, but now we just blame Microsoft and Win8 GloFo and Hector Ruiz ;)
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No, it will turn into "AMD is going to take control of the market because of HSA and the console wins". Intel and nVidia are doomed.
 
sandorski

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,862
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The Console wins are going to help AMD a lot, even insulate them somewhat from slumping PC sales. It really depends if PC sales continue to decline or plateau.
 
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csbin

Senior member
Feb 4, 2013
908
614
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/narrati...es-earnings-preview-advanced-micro-devices-7/

When Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports its first quarter results on Thursday, April 18, 2013, analysts are anticipating a drop into the red. They are expecting a loss of -17 cents a share after the company booked a profit of 12 cents a year ago.
Analysts are expecting a loss of 17 cents per share, a swing from a profit of 12 cents a year ago.
The consensus estimate has decreased from a loss of 16 cents over the past three months. For the fiscal year, analysts are projecting a loss of 30 cents per share. After being $1.58 billion a year ago, analysts project revenue to drop 33.8% year-over-year to $1.05 billion for the quarter. For the year, revenue is expected to come in at $4.55 billion.
Revenue has fallen in each of the last four quarters. Revenue in fourth quarter of the last fiscal year was $1.16 billion, a drop of 31.7% year-over-year. Revenue dropped 24.9% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year, fell 10.2% in second quarter of the last fiscal year and 1.7% in the first quarter of the last fiscal year.
Analysts generally think investors should stand pat on Advanced Micro Devices, with 16 of 24 analysts rating it hold.
Earnings estimates provided by Zacks.
Narrative Science, through its proprietary artificial intelligence platform, transforms data into stories and insights.

Merged in from another thread. Let's stick to 1 AMD speculation thread, please :)
-ViRGE
 
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Arachnotronic

Arachnotronic

Lifer
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
sandorski said:
The Console wins are going to help AMD a lot, even insulate them somewhat from slumping PC sales. It really depends if PC sales continue to decline or plateau.
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AMD has to deal with weak PC sales + terrible competitive positioning. Intel will keep taking market share with its army of Celeron and Pentium chips, while keeping its stronghold in the high end.
 
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MaxPayne63

Senior member
Dec 19, 2011
682
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Idontcare said:
My guess is that regardless the specific numbers involved, the discussion will become (1) x86 is doomed, ARM will be king, (2) AMD is doomed, Intel will be king, and (3) PC's are doomed, smartphones and tablets will be king.

And if it had happend 4yrs ago then we'd all be blaming Bush, but now we just blame Microsoft and Win8 GloFo and Hector Ruiz ;)
Click to expand...

You missed the part where Intel would be using a 14 centimeter process if there wasn't any competition from AMD.
 
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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
6,754
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I'm actually surprised so many are still rating it a hold, I guess they figure it's so cheap, you might as well hold on to it, lol. Hopefully AMD can execute this year and start to turn things around. I don't know if they can really recover from another terrible year.
 
Arachnotronic

Arachnotronic

Lifer
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
Hitman928 said:
I'm actually surprised so many are still rating it a hold, I guess they figure it's so cheap, you might as well hold on to it, lol. Hopefully AMD can execute this year and start to turn things around. I don't know if they can really recover from another terrible year.
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I'm holding some shares of this POS. My hope is that people cream themselves about the consoles + Kabini, the shares double, and I make a decent chunk of $$.

It's funny...even the non-AMD shareholder fanboys are much more optimistic about AMD than I am. Guess it's a lot easier to be fans and believe hype when you don't have money on the line :p
 
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pablo87

Senior member
Nov 5, 2012
374
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0
Hoping there is 1 non pandering analyst smart enough to ask how much they bought from GF in Q1.

I'm curious about console margins as well...
 
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pablo87

Senior member
Nov 5, 2012
374
0
0
Hitman928 said:
I'm actually surprised so many are still rating it a hold, I guess they figure it's so cheap, you might as well hold on to it, lol. Hopefully AMD can execute this year and start to turn things around. I don't know if they can really recover from another terrible year.
Click to expand...

A lot of these clients are under water. It would be a CLM to sell and then see it double.
 
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