Alpha

[Whoozyerdaddy]

We have officially run out of names this storm season.

Alpha
It's a tropical storm right now. Looks like it's going to ramp up though.

 

[dahunan]

At least the hurricane averages aren't increasing in frequency or getting stonger.. whew..

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: dahunan
At least the hurricane averages aren't increasing in frequency or getting stonger.. whew..

Is my sarcasm meter broken?
2 of the strongest hurricanes, ever...
Tied for the most in a year...

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: DrPizza

Originally posted by: dahunan
At least the hurricane averages aren't increasing in frequency or getting stonger.. whew..

Is my sarcasm meter broken?
2 of the strongest hurricanes, ever...
Tied for the most in a year...

At least you are checking to see if it is working properly


yes.. I was being sarcastic

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: dahunan
At least the hurricane averages aren't increasing in frequency or getting stonger.. whew..

Yes they are, but it is part of the weather cycle. Hurricanes huricanes have about a 40 year cycle. 10-15 yeard of fewer calmer storms followed by 25-30 years of more stronger storms. We just happen to be about 10 years into the stronger storm cycle. Time magazine had an article on this a few weeks ago.

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: dahunan
At least the hurricane averages aren't increasing in frequency or getting stonger.. whew..

Yes they are, but it is part of the weather cycle. Hurricanes huricanes have about a 40 year cycle. 10-15 yeard of fewer calmer storms followed by 25-30 years of more stronger storms. We just happen to be about 10 years into the stronger storm cycle. Time magazine had an article on this a few weeks ago.

Hurricane science is quite sketchy. Regardless, the debate is definitely open. I believe there's a consensus that limited data provides enough evidence to say hurricane frequency is cyclical. Hence, we are in a flow of hurricanes.

The issue of hurricane intensity is a different question.

The Hurricane Man (Dr.Gray)

A major reconfiguration of the distribution of Atlantic SST anomalies began in mid-1995 and has largely persisted to the present. North Atlantic SSTs have become about 0.4 to 0.6°C warmer than normal since 1995, and tropical Atlantic August-October upper tropospheric 200 mb winds have increased from the east. This has brought about a significant decrease in tropospheric vertical wind shear. Low-level horizontal wind shear along the Atlantic equatorial trough (ITCZ) has also increased. It was the strengthening of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) which led to these Atlantic basin changes. This interpretation is consistent with changes in a long list of global atmospheric circulation features during the last ten years which conform to a prominent shift into hurricane-enhancing Atlantic circulation patterns, particularly the enhancement of major hurricane activity. Table 10 displays tropical cyclone activity from 1995-2004 compared with climatology and the earlier quarter-century period from 1970-1994. Activity has increased for all tropical cyclone activity parameters and especially for intense hurricanes. Historical and geographic evidence going back thousands of years indicates that shifts in the Atlantic multi-decadal thermohaline circulation tend to occur on periods of about 25-50 years. If the recent ten-year shift follows prior occurrences, it is likely that enhanced Atlantic basin major hurricane activity will persist through the early decades of the 21st century in contrast with the diminished major hurricane activity that was present from 1970-1994. We expect that the hurricane season of 2005 will follow, although with somewhat less intensity, this recent 10-year upswing in hurricane activity. Our recent 2004 forecast verification paper has more discussion on this topic. It is available on our website: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

It's an interesting website. Gray is unquestionably an authority but his own analysis notes HIS climatological evidence/analysis typically explains less than half of the variability in the climate. Typically, it's actually less than 35%.

The 1995-2004 Upswing in Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

Many individuals have queried whether the unprecedented landfall of four destructive hurricanes in a seven-week period is related in any way to human-induced climate changes. There is no evidence that this is the case. If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past nine years (1995-2003), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred. When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995. In addition, it has been well-documented that the measured global warming of about 0.5°C during the 25-year period of 1970-1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

We attribute the heightened Atlantic major hurricane activity of 2004 season as well as the increased Atlantic major hurricane activity of the previous nine years to be a consequence of the multidecadal fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) as we have been discussing in our Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts for several years. Major hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been shown to undergo marked multidecadal fluctuations that are directly related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. When the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is running strong, the central Atlantic equatorial trough (ITCZ) becomes stronger. The stronger the Atlantic equatorial trough becomes, the more favorable are conditions for the development of major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. Since 1995, the THC has been flowing more strongly, and there has been a concomitant increase in Atlantic major hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Even though the 2004 hurricane season has been quite active, it is only somewhat more active than seven of the past nine hurricane seasons (1995-1996, 1998-2001, 2003). It was the environmental steering currents that drove four of the six major hurricanes of 2004 on such long, low-latitude westerly tracks that made this season so special. The very damaging Atlantic 2004 hurricane season this year was simply a low probability event resulting from unusual natural variability in the ocean-atmosphere system. Similarly, the ten typhoons that struck Japan this year were also a rare statistical event that was in part a consequence of the anomalously warm tropical central Pacific sea surface temperatures and a weaker-than-normal West Pacific subtropical anticyclone. This caused a high percentage of West Pacific typhoons that formed in the central Pacific to be steered toward the Japanese Islands. Such high U.S. and Japan landfalls events this year should in no way be associated with the human-induced global warming hypothesis.

Gray is quite unequivocal in saying (human-induced) global climate change is unrelated to storm intensity by explicitly saying intense storms have NOT increased everywhere.

But there are different perspectives . . . Kerry Emmanuel published in NATURE

Theory1 and modelling2 predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency3, 4 and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and?taking into account an increasing coastal population?a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.

Naturally, correlation does NOT prove causation but the issue of human effect is FAR from settled.

Webster SCIENCE Sep 2005

We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.

In essence, it really matters WHAT you measure and HOW you measure it. Regardless, there's ample evidence of global changes. No one is even close to true gnosis which means anyone claiming human activities are a nonfactor may be on just as shaky theoretical footing as someone that claims it's DEFINITELY human activity.

 

[judasmachine]

wake me for Gamma.

 

[conehead433]

It's Bush's fault. All the hurricanes were just a way to get gasoline prices higher for his oil buddies.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: conehead433
It's Bush's fault. All the hurricanes were just a way to get gasoline prices higher for his oil buddies.

It is Clinton's fault. He refused to fund the "proven" research from China to be able to seed hurricanes and weaken them.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper

It is Clinton's fault. He refused to fund the "proven" research from China to be able to seed hurricanes and weaken them.

:shocked: A Republican is criticizing President Clinton for refusing to fund experimental research? What a world!